REGIONAL SECURITY. LESSONS FROM THE LATEST KOREAN CRISIS

Since the end of 2012, the situation on the Korean Peninsula has once again escalated as a result of new missile and nuclear weapons tests in the DPRK and large-scale US-South Korean maneuvers in the Yellow Sea. This escalation was marked by particularly bellicose statements and some actions of Pyongyang and the demonstration of American strategic weapons during the exercises.

What is behind the "spring escalation" and what does the course of the young leader of the DPRK Kim Jong-un promise? Some aspects of the current situation on the Korean Peninsula are discussed in the articles of E. M. Rusakov, a columnist for the magazine "Asia and Africa Today" on the problems of East and South Asia, and O. V. Kiryanov, a correspondent for Rossiyskaya Gazeta, a graduate student at the Moscow State University Institute of International Relations.

E. M. RUSAKOV

Candidate of Historical Sciences

Korean Peninsula Keywords:, North Korea, Kim Jong Un, escalating tensions, Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions, US-South Korean maneuvers

The latest tests of missile and nuclear weapons in the DPRK marked the beginning of a new round of tension on the Korean peninsula. The crisis was exacerbated by the US-South Korean exercises and Pyongyang's response, which appears to have been "retaliatory" only outwardly, but in reality was the result of a well-thought-out policy aimed at achieving the main goal of establishing North Korea as a nuclear power and eliminating the few restrictions that were achieved at the six-party denuclearization talks Of the Korean Peninsula^*. It is no coincidence that the main chords of the grandiose Pyongyang " performance "were the self-declaration of the DPRK as a" nuclear power " and the decision to resume the operation of the Yongbyon (Nyongbyon) nuclear center, which was suspended in 2007, including the plutonium production reactor. At the same time, the North Korean KCNA news agency noted that the Yongbyon complex will be used for both peaceful and military purposes.¹

According to Admiral S. Locklear, head of the US Pacific Command, tensions in this case have reached their highest level in the 60 years since the end of the Korean War (1950-1953) ^.2

At the same time, for the first time since World War II, missile and nuclear blackmail was clothed not in the form of general phrases, as it happened during the Cold War, but in the name of specific targets for a missile strike against the enemy - the United States, South Korea and Japan. Even during the Cuban crisis, such a threat was not publicly emphasized, but rather, both sides were looking for a way out of a situation that had brought the world to the brink of a general nuclear catastrophe.

* China, the United States, South Korea, Russia and Japan are participating in the six-party talks on the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue with the DPRK. They were interrupted by Pyongyang in 2009. Denuclearization is a diplomatic formulation adopted in September 2005 at the six-party talks, which allowed Pyongyang to replace "nuclear disarmament of the DPRK" with "denuclearization of the entire Korean peninsula." For more information, see: Korean Peninsula: Dangerous games. Vorontsov A.V., Agaltsov P. The Nuclear Intrigue of the Korean Peninsula / / Asia and Africa Today, 2010, No. 10; Regional Security. A nuclear ghost on the Korean Peninsula. Zhebin A. Z. Who is to blame?; Denisov V. I. Is there a way out of the impasse? // Asia and Africa Today, 2011, N 11.

It should be noted that the DPRK stipulated strikes in response to military provocations against it, but given the "peculiar" interpretation of the concept of "provocation" by the Pyongyans, hypothetically they can call it anything they want. However, in the end, in contrast to the bellicose statements, Kim Jong-un was quite circumspect in his actions.

And yet, despite the fact that the verbal " balancing on the brink of nuclear war "was perceived mainly as a farce, regional security and the entire world policy suffered a great psychological blow, which, as it seems, is fraught with serious consequences (especially since military strategists do not perceive this kind of" humor"). These consequences can be negative if the arms race intensifies in East Asia and in the Asia-Pacific region as a whole. But it is possible that a shake-up on the peninsula will force the countries of the region to pay more attention and take more seriously any actions that lead to an aggravation of conflicts, including territorial disputes, and especially their militarization.

BACKGROUND: NEW CHALLENGES

December 12, 2012 Pyongyang launched a landmark missile. For the first time, a North Korean launch vehicle was able to throw a payload into orbit, thus proving that the DPRK has made significant progress in terms of mastering rocket technology.³ In January 2013, the UN Security Council, with the unanimous support of all its members, including China and Russia, increased international sanctions against the DPRK.

On February 12, 2013, the DPRK conducted the third nuclear test in its history (previously they were conducted in 2006 and 2009).

On this occasion, US President Barack Obama said: "The regime in North Korea must understand that only by fulfilling its international obligations will they (North Koreans) ensure security and well-being. This kind of provocation... they will only further isolate them, and we will continue to support our allies, strengthen missile defenses, and lead the world in taking tough action in response to these threats."⁴

The Russian Foreign Ministry condemned the new nuclear test and demanded that the DPRK stop its illegal actions, strictly comply with all UN Security Council regulations, completely abandon its nuclear missile programs, and return to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) comprehensive safeguards regime. At the same time, the Russian Foreign Ministry urged not to use the current step of Pyongyang as a pretext for increasing military activity around the Korean Peninsula and not to weaken efforts to normalize the situation on the peninsula by political and diplomatic means. ⁵

Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi summoned the North Korean ambassador to China on February 12 and gave him a serious presentation about Pyongyang's third nuclear test. He called on the DPRK to stop making statements and actions that could escalate the situation and return to dialogue and negotiations as soon as possible.⁶ But on the same day, the Xinhua news Agency published " Commentary: It's time to pay attention to the root causes of the crisis on the Korean Peninsula." It stressed that "in fact, the DPRK's open defiance is rooted in its strong sense of insecurity during the long-term confrontation with the ROK (Republic of Korea), Japan and the United States. In the eyes of the DPRK, Washington makes no effort to contain its militaristic ambitions and from time to time plays with its muscles by conducting joint military exercises with the Republic of Korea and Japan in the region. The latest nuclear test is thus a clear demonstration of the desperate DPRK's attempt to curb the threat that has been created around it. " ⁷

March 7, 2013 The UN Security Council, chaired by Russia, adopted resolution 2094, which tightened sanctions against the DPRK in response to its nuclear test in February. The document received the unanimous support of 15 member countries of the Security Council, including China, which together with the United States prepared its text. In the resolution, Council members expressed their " deepest concern about the nuclear test conducted by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea." They also demanded that Pyongyang return to the implementation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and stop developing weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery.⁸

In response, Pyongyang condemned this "criminal" resolution and issued a number of bellicose statements against South Korea and the United States in connection with the large-scale US-South Korean maneuvers in the Yellow Sea that began in March 2013.

Meanwhile, this is not what the world community expected from the young leader, hoping that he would pursue a more pragmatic policy, adapting to the changes taking place in the world and gradually getting rid of the current reputation of North Korea as the last reserve of the Cold War and nationalist "communist" dictatorship.

Initially, there were hints in Kim Jong-un's domestic and even foreign policy that such hopes were not groundless. But they were quickly dispelled by a missile test in April 2012.

Nevertheless, even in the face of a sharp deterioration in relations with the United States, Pyongyang's representatives continued to look through various channels for ways to resume dialogue with Washington. This, in particular, happened during the forum "Dialogue on Cooperation in Northeast Asia", which was held in late September 2012 in the Chinese city of Dalian.

The "people's diplomacy" was also revived. In January 2013 Former US Permanent Representative to the UN B. Richardson and head of Google visited Pyongyang-

la" by E. Schmidt, after which foreigners were allowed to use mobile phones for the first time in North Korea. Especially noteworthy is the invitation in late February of the Harlem Globetrotters team and American basketball star D. Rodman, with whom Kim Jong-un publicly hugged. Moreover, it turned out that the young North Korean leader is a big fan of Barack Obama's favorite basketball team, the Chicago Bulls. According to Rodman, Kim Jong-un assured him that he "did not want war" and asked him to tell Obama to call him on ⁹.

It is difficult to avoid the parallel between this "basketball diplomacy" and the "ping-pong diplomacy" that marked the beginning of the normalization of relations between the United States and China in the early 1970s. A "signal" to Washington that it is ready to conduct negotiations with the United States, but only bilaterally, even without the PRC, not to mention other participants in the Six-party talks. According to some American experts, "North Korea clearly does not see any benefits from serious participation in the six-party talks of China, the United States, Russia, Japan and South Korea." ¹⁰

It is noteworthy that after first announcing the termination of the Korean armistice agreement^* signed in 1953 by the military representatives of the DPRK, the PRC (Chinese "volunteers") and the United States (on behalf of the UN), Pyongyang further clarified that it was only a question of terminating non-aggression agreements with South Korea.¹¹

However, this was only the beginning.

UP THE STAIRS LEADING DOWN

Pyongyang's rhetorical performances and even provocations are not new. But the latest performance of "balancing on the brink of nuclear war" exceeded all expectations. Step by step, Pyongyang has methodically raised the stakes, moving along a path that during the Cold War was defined as climbing up a ladder leading down.

On March 7, 2013, on the eve of the annual US-South Korean military exercises that began on March 11, Pyongyang threatened to "launch a preemptive nuclear strike against aggressors in the event of an attack on our country." ¹² On March 8, Pyongyang annulled virtually all non-aggression and denuclearization agreements concluded with South Korea on the Korean Peninsula.¹³

On March 26, missile units were ordered to prepare for strikes on the continental United States, as well as on the islands of Guam and Hawaii. On March 30, the DPRK declared a "state of war" with the Republic of Korea, threatening it with an "all - out nuclear war" and Washington with a "preemptive" nuclear strike on American bases on the US mainland, Hawaii and Guam, as well as in South Korea.¹⁴

On April 1, the Supreme People's Assembly of the DPRK adopted the "Law on Consolidating the Status of a Nuclear Power for Self-Defense of the Country", which stated: "The DPRK is a full-fledged nuclear power capable of defeating the troops of any aggressor with a single blow ..." ¹⁵ On April 2, Pyongyang announced the resumption of operation of the Yongbyon nuclear complex (a 5-megawatt reactor, a plant for fuel rods, spent nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities, construction sites of 50 and 200 MW reactors).

On April 3, South Koreans were banned from visiting the Kaesong Industrial Park , the only joint venture between the two Koreas located in the north of the peninsula. Then the staff of diplomatic missions and their families in Pyongyang were advised to leave the country, and then the same call was made to all foreigners in South Korea due to the fact that "the situation on the Korean peninsula is getting closer and closer to a thermonuclear war"¹⁶.

After that, the DPRK began preparations on its eastern coast for a demonstration test of a number of ballistic missiles, including mobile missile systems "Musudan", which allegedly have a range of 2.5 thousand km to ⁴ thousand km17.

It would be naive to expect that Pyongyang will be able to dictate its will to the United States.

Washington reacted to the North Koreans ' bellicose escapades with apparent calmness. New US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, noting that there are many ambiguities about Pyongyang's intentions, said: "We must take seriously every provocative, belligerent word and action that has been said or taken by the new young leader since he came to power."

* For more information, see: Kulkov D. V. Anachronism of the "forgotten" war / / Asia and Africa today, 2009, N 10; Urnov A. Yu. War in Korea / / Asia and Africa Today, 2012, N 9, 10.

At the same time, the Pentagon chief added that North Korean leaders have occasionally escalated tensions in the region in the past in order to influence the US position on increasing aid to their country or in bilateral relations to their advantage.¹⁸

But Washington's actions were more eloquent than words.

Tsch. Hagel announced plans for an additional deployment of 14 interceptor missiles in Alaska, which will increase to ⁴⁴ units on the west coast of the United States19. He also officially confirmed the February 2013 decision of Washington and Tokyo to deploy Japan's second ballistic missile tracking radar in Kyoto.²⁰ Mobile radar should become an important component of both the defense system of American territory and the regional missile defense system in Asia, which the United States is creating together with Japan and South Korea.

On March 25, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Korea, Chung Seung-cho, and Commander of the US forces in that country, J. R. R. Tolkien.Thurman signed an emergency response program to fend off future provocations from North Korea ²¹.

WELL DONE PROWESS

Much has been written about escalating tensions as a way for the young North Korean leader to assert himself, and this motive has some significance, although, as noted in the article published below by O. V. Kiryanov, Kim Jong-un fully took power into his own hands even before the tension escalated.

Many experts, including domestic ones, tend to explain Pyongyang's belligerence mainly by military exercises and other unfriendly actions of Washington. This factor cannot be discounted, but it should also be taken into account that the US-South Korean maneuvers have been regularly conducted for decades and are regularly condemned by North Korea, but for some reason this time they caused such a violent reaction.

Perhaps Pyongyang decided to launch a kind of psychological preemptive strike with noisy threats, fearing a strike on its nuclear facilities. According to the North Korean White Paper published at the height of the crisis, ²² the most negative emotions in Pyongyang were caused by the first-ever "visit"to South Korea by two American B-2 stealth aircraft (without nuclear equipment) that flew to the US-South Korean exercises from Missouri to the United States.²³ They are part of the US strategic nuclear triad, consisting of submarine-launched ballistic missiles, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and strategic bombers. The "hint" is clear: such bombers are designed, among other things, to "decapitate" the political and military leadership of the enemy and destroy its nuclear missile potential. But unlike missiles, planes, because of their maneuverability, are more convenient to use for "intimidation" and playing on your nerves.

Two "low-visibility" (for radar) fifth - generation F-22 Raptor multirole fighters were also sent to South Korea, and two Aegis destroyers with sea-based anti-missile systems were sent to its shores.

It is interesting that the Pyongyang White Paper mentions two Washington military-strategic documents - The National Security Strategy of the United States of America ("The National Security Strategy of the United States", 2002) and the Joint Nuclear Operational Doctrine ("The Doctrine of Joint Nuclear Operations", 2005), which were analyzed in detail in in our journal as applied to the DPRK^*. But the White Paper did not mention that these documents were essentially disavowed by J. R. R. Tolkien. And finally rejected by Barack Obama. However, Washington does not hide that. North Korea, as a country that has acquired nuclear weapons, is not subject to the US commitment confirmed by the current administration not to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear States (so-called negative security guarantees).

But the fact that over the south of the Korean peninsula will appear "B-2", it became known only in

* For more information, see: Rusakov E. M. The ghosts are returning from the "cold" / / Asia and Africa Today, 2010. N 10.

at the end of March, that is, when the crisis was in full swing. Moreover, Washington claims that the demonstration of American strategic bombers was caused by new tests of North Korean missile and nuclear weapons.²⁴

Often, when explaining the unprecedented belligerence of Pyongyang's statements and its claims to the status of a nuclear power, references are also made to the Libyan and Syrian scenarios of external military intervention, as well as the US war in Iraq. It seems that these arguments are at least naive, moreover, justifying nuclear weapons, they become a kind of manifestation of the geopolitical "Stockholm syndrome"*.

Many countries have problems with ensuring national security, but if there is a historically formed "club of nuclear powers", this does not mean that it should be expanded. A number of states, ranging from the "threshold" states with the potential to develop nuclear weapons-Japan, Brazil, Argentina, South Africa, etc., and ending with Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, which received it as a "legacy", refused the dubious honor of becoming nuclear powers.

Of course, the lessons of history must be learned. But not so clumsy: after all, each situation is specific. Libya is not yet a fully established state, where a civil war broke out, which France and Great Britain took advantage of by acting on the side of the armed opposition. It is hard to imagine how a nuclear bomb could help Gaddafi in such a situation. There is also a civil war going on in Syria, and in connection with the allegations of the use of chemical weapons in this country, on April 26, Barack Obama said that if such allegations were confirmed, it would mean that the Syrian government had "crossed the (red) line" and he would "change his calculations and the approach of the United States." ²⁵ Although, according to American experts, we are not talking about a ground military operation, targeted airstrikes on Syrian air defense systems and chemical weapons facilities are quite possible.²⁶

In other words, unlike relations between traditional nuclear powers, the presence of weapons of mass destruction for new "upstarts" is not a deterrent, but rather an increasing threat of military operation against them. After all, it was under this pretext that George W. Bush-son started the war in Iraq.

Now, due to suspicions about the development of nuclear weapons, a dangerous situation is developing around Iran^**. In particular, Washington decided to supply Israel with V-22 Osprey transport aircraft, KC-135 tanker aircraft and surface-to-air missiles in order to strengthen the potential for possible strikes against Iran. And Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will get "invisible" (for radar) AGM - 88 air-to-ground guided missiles. Moreover, in the United States, they have already begun to advocate that the AGM-88 should be replaced with the newest and most powerful AGM-158 missiles, specially designed to destroy super-reinforced underground nuclear facilities. ²⁷

The DPRK is by no means a patchwork state, and its army, even despite the obsolescence of weapons, belongs to the most powerful in the world, occupying the fifth place in terms of number (together with "reserves"). According to the Stockholm Institute for Strategic Studies, there are 700,000 North Korean troops, 2,000 tanks, and 8,000 artillery and missile systems within 100 km of the demilitarized zone, a significant part of which can fire at Seoul, with its population of 10 million.²⁸ North Korea is capable of causing damage comparable to a nuclear explosion, even without resorting to nuclear weapons.

As a matter of fact, the existing balance of power between North and South has provided relative stability for six decades, and the appearance of ballistic missiles and nuclear devices in Pyongyang only disrupts this balance. Moreover, the United States, in exchange for Pyongyang's promises to allow IAEA inspectors to visit its nuclear facilities, withdrew nuclear weapons from South Korea at the end of 1991, including tactical ones, which literally penetrated the entire demilitarized zone.²⁹

Moreover, the DPRK has a much more powerful means of "deterring" possible aggression against it than its nuclear bombs. This "means" is China, which would perceive such a scenario as an extremely unfriendly, if not hostile, action against the PRC itself. However, the American expert J. Pomfret argues that for the PRC, despite its participation in the development of UN Security Council sanctions against the DPRK, a nuclear missile North Korea is still the lesser of evils compared to the hypothetical threat of a possible unification of Korea under the auspices of Seoul, i.e. under the control of the United States. At the same time, he refers to the memoirs of J. R. R. Tolkien. President George W. Bush and his son, which note Beijing's unwillingness to exert influence on Pyongyang on the nuclear missile issue. It was only after Bush warned Chinese President Jiang Zemin in early 2003 that if the problem was not resolved diplomatically, he would be forced to consider launching a military strike against North Korea, that Pyongyang was forced by Beijing to agree to negotiations.³⁰

However, the antics of the obstinate "younger brother" cause a lot of trouble for China, besides putting it in an awkward position: it turns out that Beijing either has no desire to cool the ardor of the North Koreans, or its influence on them is very exaggerated.

* "Stockholm syndrome" - a psychological situation when hostages start justifying their captors under the influence of shock and fear.

** For more information, see: The situation around Iran. Meeting of the Department of Global Problems and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Vasiliev A.M. Iran as a "Shiite Superpower": Real and Imaginary Challenges; Rogov S. M. The role of Iran in US policy in the Middle East; Arbatov A. G. The Creeping Crisis; Stegny P. V. The Israel-Iran standoff: Regional and Global Risks; Ivanov I. S. The Iranian Nuclear Program: Russia's Position / / Asia and Africa today. 2012, N 8.

In connection with the crisis, Chinese President Xi Jinping said on April 7 at the annual Boao Asian Economic Forum (on the island of Shanghai). Hainan, China), that no country is allowed to harm world peace or plunge the region into chaos for its own selfish purposes. "All countries-large or small, strong or weak-must contribute to the preservation and consolidation of peace," he said. Stability in Asia faces challenges that are being created by new challenges while traditional security threats still persist. The global village should be a place of common development, and not "an arena of gladiatorial fights," the Chinese leader stressed.³¹

Obviously, this was a verbal " doublet "to both" big, strong "America and" small, weak " North Korea. The comments of Chinese experts noted, in particular, that Washington and Tokyo used the crisis to deploy the latest high-tech weapons in Northeast Asia.³²

Head of the Pentagon Ch. Hagel, after a telephone conversation with the new Chinese Defense Minister Chang Wanquan, positively assessed Beijing's position:"...North Korea is a very good example of our common interests. Of course, the Chinese do not want to further worsen the current complex explosive situation. Such a turn of events would not serve their interests, nor the interests of the United States and our allies. " ³³ However, Washington was not fully confident in Beijing's ability to influence Kim Jong-un. Thus, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Michael Dempsey, said in early April that in the past, Americans had a better understanding of the North Korean leadership and "those who influenced them."³⁴ It was only after talks with the Chinese leadership in Beijing that he stated on April 24 that the PRC, like the United States, is interested in a nuclear-free Korean peninsula, is concerned about North Korea's threats and is actively working to preserve stability on the peninsula^*.

CHERNOBYL IS "BERRIES"...

Russia cannot stand aside from the events on the neighboring Korean peninsula. From the point of view of ensuring the country's security, the proliferation of a nuclear powder magazine near the borders of Russia and, even more so, attempts to threaten anyone with it is an unequivocal "evil", no matter what the motives of its "builders"may be. Although, of course, when approaching this problem, Russian diplomacy cannot but show flexibility.

Speaking at a press conference in Hanover on April 8, Vladimir Putin said: "Our position on the North Korean nuclear issue is well known. We are against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. First.

Second. We are in favor of denuclearization of the entire Korean Peninsula... I will not hide the fact that we are concerned about the escalation on the Korean Peninsula, because we are neighbors. If, God forbid, that happens, then Chernobyl, which we all know very well, may seem like just a children's fairy tale. Is there such a threat or not? I believe there is.

Of course, there is no need to escalate anything, but I would urge everyone to calm down and start solving all the problems that have accumulated over the years at the negotiating table in a calm manner. It seems to me that the United States of America has taken a very important and correct step: it postponed the test of a ballistic missile so as not to provoke the situation. And I think we should all thank the leadership of the United States for this step. I hope that this will be noticed by our partners in North Korea, appropriate conclusions will be drawn, everyone will calm down and start working together to defuse the situation. " ³⁵

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in an interview with RTVi TV channel, noted that " there are already more than enough irritants there, and from all sides. Of course, it is unacceptable when a state - in this case, the DPRK, a member of the UN-openly and defiantly violates the UN Security Council resolution. We have repeatedly spoken out on this topic together with other members of the Security Council. ... The situation is already very serious, because nuclear explosions and missile launches are not jokes. But rhetoric plays an equally "harmful" role, since at some point mutual accusations, threats and warnings can reach a critical point when people will push themselves into a corner, and they will need to act, present something to public opinion.

Therefore, we are consistently trying to calm the situation ... so as not to escalate the confrontation, not to inflame emotions, but to try to use diplomacy, most likely "quiet" and non-public, to bring the situation out of the "roadside" where it fell, on the road leading to the resumption of the six-party talks... We work with all the participants in the six-Party talks - the DPRK, the United States, Japan, and the Republic of Korea, and we closely coordinate our actions with our Chinese neighbors. While it is difficult to say how this will be crowned. But on the one hand, I would not like the price of self-assertion to be shown in the escalation of rhetoric, especially in illegal actions. On the other hand, we want the situation to be pushed into a corner because of the desire to prove that we can call everyone to order."

Answering the question whether Russia can act more resolutely on the side of the DPRK in order to prevent a war on the Korean peninsula, Sergey Lavrov said:: "I don't think it requires making a choice and deciding which side to play on. We want to stand on the side of reason and peaceful settlement. Everything else depends on emotions, if your viewers proceed from the logic: "Poor North Korea, it is surrounded, they are conducting massive military exercises, including naval, land and air exercises." These teachings really don't help. We tell this to Americans, South Koreans, and Japanese alike. But ... -

* The Washington Post, 24.04.13.

To say that we will conduct our exercises with North Korea because of this is a reckless path."³⁶

PYONGYANG'S STRATEGIC CALCULATION

A very common version explains Pyongyang's belligerence by its desire to achieve, as in the past, economic assistance and some political concessions. But would even an inexperienced young leader threaten a nuclear strike on the United States for the sake of an extra hundred or two thousand tons of food aid?! Unlikely. His "financial situation" is much better than, say, the head of the White House. And the entire North Korean elite is not at all poor. And the people? What could the Soviet people have done in the 1930s of "dekulakization" and mass repression?! The citizens of the DPRK for many years were content, at best, with a cup of rice, and not so long ago they had to go through hunger. Now, at least, peasant farms are allowed to survive "on their own strength", disposing of part of the crop at their own discretion.

However, Kim Jong-un in May 2013 instructed the "people's security" authorities to "mercilessly get rid of unwanted and alien elements who indulge in empty dreams" (apparently, we are talking, first of all, about dreams of a well-fed life). He stressed that these bodies and internal security forces "are obliged to use weapons and the law to ensure the implementation of the party's strategy, which implies achieving economic progress while strengthening the country's nuclear potential." ³⁷ And for the edification of both "friends" and "strangers," South Korean-born American Kenneth Bae (Bae Joon Ho) was sentenced to 15 years of hard labor on charges of "attempting to overthrow the government" through "subversive propaganda activities."³⁸ It is possible that the list of his "subversive literature" could include "A book about the history of the United States." healthy and delicious food."

It is impossible not to take into account the escalation of the atmosphere of the "besieged fortress" in North Korea: this tool of psychological processing of the masses has been widely used at all times to strengthen their power, both by outright tyrants and by more "liberal" rulers.

It seems that the new leader's motives are deeper - in Pyongyang's exorbitant nuclear ambitions. It cannot be ruled out that he followed the "will" of his father, who did not live to see such a stage in the development of nuclear and missile weapons, at which it would be possible to blackmail his opponents with them.

The Director of National Intelligence of the United States, J. P. Morgan. Clapper has denied reports that Pyongyang has a nuclear-tipped missile warhead ³⁹, but the Defense Intelligence Agency is more pessimistic. In any case, Pyongyang seems to have achieved serious success in improving its nuclear missile capabilities, i.e., in making small-sized nuclear warheads suitable for installation on ballistic missiles and significantly increasing the range of ballistic missiles. Apparently, the North Korean leadership decided to take advantage of the newfound potential, even if it is still far from perfect, in the hope that the status of a nuclear missile power will allow it to maintain its regime with "self-reliance", regardless of external factors. It can't wait to prove the "superiority" of the DPRK over the South Korean " puppets "and increase the weight of North Korea in international relations, in particular, having the opportunity to speak" on equal terms "with Washington and have more freedom to maneuver in relations even with its main" patron " - China.

Now that Pyongyang has self-proclaimed itself as a nuclear power, it seems that negotiating with the new leader will at least become much more difficult, and the prospect of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula will be further removed. Perhaps Pyongyang will demand serious political concessions from the United States, and those that are unacceptable for Washington, not to mention South Korea. Examples include the signing of a peace treaty between the United States and the DPRK or the cancellation of US-South Korean military exercises (although the latter may compromise on limiting scale, weapons, geography, etc.).

DE-ESCALATION

One more important point should be noted, which, in my opinion, refutes the claims that this whole story is connected with the" immaturity " of a young leader who is inferior in experience to his grandfather and father. If Pyongyang was as rampant in its verbal tirades as ever, it was very circumspect in its military actions.

After all, not a single warship was captured, as happened in 1968 with the American reconnaissance ship "Pueblo", not a single South Korean frigate was sunk, as happened with the "Cheonan" in March 2010, not a single shell fell on the heads of South Koreans, as it was on the island of Yeonpyeong in November 2010

You can feel the hand of a more mature politician. Apparently, behind Kim Jong-un is the "gray cardinal", his uncle Jang Song-taek-the second person in the country, the deputy chairman of the State Defense Committee headed by Kim Jong-un. This ace of Pyongyang's corridors of power, married to Kim Jong Il's sister, has experienced a rise, a fall, and a return to the political Olympus.

Perhaps the peak of tension can be called the end of March-beginning of April 2013.

But after asserting itself as a nuclear power and reopening the Yongbyon nuclear complex, Pyongyang has eased its threats against the United States, focusing mainly on South Korea and intimidating war with diplomats in Pyongyang and foreigners in the south of the peninsula.

For its part, Washington announced the cancellation of tests of an intercontinental ballistic missile. On April 12, in Seoul, US Secretary of State John Kerry Kerry says the United States is ready to negotiate with Pyongyang on denuclearization-

ari in six-sided or two-sided formats ⁴⁰. Consultations between the participants of the six - party talks with North Korea-China, the United States, Russia, South Korea and Japan-have intensified. During the talks, US Secretary of State John Kerry Kerry in Beijing, both sides reaffirmed their commitment to achieving the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula through peaceful means.⁴¹

The milestone can be called April 15. Pyongyang celebrated the Day of the Sun, i.e. the 101st anniversary of the birth of the founder of the Kim dynasty, Kim Il Sung. Contrary to the fears of South Koreans and Americans, a "salute" of ready-to-launch missiles on the east coast of North Korea never took place on this occasion.

On April 16, Pyongyang received the first reaction to Washington's statements about its readiness to negotiate denuclearization. They were called a "clever ploy" aimed at "eliminating the DPRK's nuclear deterrent potential", and raising the issue of denuclearization was "a blatant hostile act that contradicts the line of the Workers' Party of Korea and the laws of the DPRK." Perhaps the key passage in this document is the following:: "Dialogue with the United States should be a dialogue between two nuclear powers, and not used by one side to force the other side to give up its nuclear weapons." ⁴²

On April 18, the response to Washington was given at a higher level - by the State Defense Committee. This statement set out the conditions under which Pyongyang is ready for negotiations: an immediate cessation of "all provocative actions" against the DPRK and an apology for them, the lifting of UN Security Council sanctions, the cessation of nuclear war exercises threatening the DPRK, and the withdrawal of all American nuclear weapons from the territory of South Korea.⁴³

Thus, as noted above, Pyongyang now counts on a dialogue between the "two nuclear powers". In my opinion, its main goal is to achieve, if not recognition, then semi-recognition or tacit recognition of the DPRK's nuclear potential and Pyongyang's continued improvement of nuclear missile weapons - the "miniaturization" of the nuclear warhead and an increase in the range and reliability of missiles (the most distant of them -"Musudan" - has never been tested, the most evil languages claim that this is a dummy)⁴⁴.

However, the DPRK statement indicated the possibility of resuming dialogue. As they say, a bad world is better than a good quarrel. But there will be heavy diplomatic bargaining ahead if and when the talks resume in a six-party or other format. Pyongyang's stakes are rising.

In late May, Kim Jong - un sent Choi Ryong-hae, head of the General Political Department of the Korean People's Army, to Beijing as his special representative. During the meeting with him, Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed the hope that " the parties will strive with composure and restraint to mitigate the situation and resume the six-party talks process, and make unremitting efforts to realize denuclearization, long-term peace and stability on the Korean peninsula and in Northeast Asia." Choi Ryong-hae stated that " the DPRK is determined to take active actions together with interested parties to resolve the problems through the Six-Party talks and other forms of dialogue and consultation and achieve peace and stability on the Korean peninsula."^* Pyongyang's "peace-loving" tone was boosted by the suspension of service to North Korean accounts at the Bank of China. But Choi Ryong Hae didn't say anything about denuclearization.

INTERNATIONAL

As has happened many times in the past, the current heat of passion, especially in terms of swearing, generally ended with a certain calm after the end of the US-South Korean maneuvers on April 30. But the fallout from nuclear blackmail, even if verbal, will remain in world politics for a long time.

The Korean Peninsula crisis has taught the world a lesson. It demonstrated that the threat of nuclear missile war, which was almost dismissed from the accounts of world politics after the end of the cold War, has not disappeared into oblivion. Characteristically, referring to North Korea and Iran, British Prime Minister David Cameron, far from Asia, said: "We need nuclear deterrence forces now more than ever. After the end of the cold war, the nuclear threat did not disappear, but rather increased. " ⁴⁵

The crisis, coupled with the weakening of al-Qaeda, has somewhat sidelined the threat of international "Islamic" terrorism, which has dominated international relations since September 11, 2011. At the same time, he clearly showed the difficulties of an adequate response to nuclear blackmail, both on the part of irresponsible statesmen and terrorists, if weapons of mass destruction fall into their hands. Accordingly, the need to stop the spread of nuclear weapons is becoming more urgent than ever for the entire international community, despite its serious disagreements on many other aspects of world politics.

Finally, the crisis has confirmed that the center of the threat of hotbeds of war, in which the world's leading powers may be involved, is shifting to East Asia, where, along with the growing military-political rivalry between the United States and China and a number of territorial disputes, the confrontation on the Korean Peninsula may reach a new level.

It is not difficult to imagine that the US military potential directed against North Korea will now be significantly strengthened. But indirectly, this additional potential is due to-

* Xi Jinping meets with special envoy of the DPRK leader / / Xinhua, 24.05.2013 - http://russian.news.cn/import-news/2013 -05/24/s_ 132406791. htm

It also affects the balance of power between the United States and China in the Asia-Pacific region. It is no coincidence that some Chinese experts believe that the B-2 flight over the south of the Korean Peninsula was addressed not so much to the DPRK as to China.

The White Paper on the Chinese Armed Forces, published on April 16, 2013, states: "One country is strengthening its military alliances in the Asia-Pacific region, expanding its military presence, and often exacerbating tensions in it." ⁴⁶ You don't have to be a great expert on world politics to guess which "one country" is being referred to.

Nevertheless, the joint efforts of the participants in the six-party talks to resolve the crisis on the Korean peninsula show that, despite a number of territorial and other disputes, the situation in East Asia can be kept under control.

In any case, I would like to hope so.

^{Harlan Chico.} 1 North Korea vows to restart shuttered nuclear reactor that can make bomb-grade plutonium // The Washington Post, 2.04.2013.

^{Miles Donna.} 2 Locklear: Tensions on Korean Peninsula highest since war's end // DOD, American Forces Press Service, 9.04.2013 -http://www.defense.gov/News/NewsArticle.aspx? I D= 119731

³ NK successfully launches long-range rocket // The Korea Times, 12.12.2012.

⁴ The White House. 12.02.2013. Remarks by the President in the State of the Union Address - http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/02/12/remarks-president-state-union-address

⁵ Website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. Statement of the Russian Foreign Ministry in connection with the implementation of a new nuclear test in the DPRK - http://www.ln.mid.ru/ brp_4. nsf/newsline/HB4B3ED5225ElBF44257B100033DB4B250 - 12 - 02 - 2013

⁶ http://rassian.news.cn/importnews/2013 - 02/12/c_132166225. htm

⁷ http://rassian.news.cn/importnews/2013 - 02/12/c_32166226. htm

⁸ ITAR-TASS, 7.03.2013.

^{Williams Matt.} 9 Dennis Rodman calls Kim Jong-un 'a great guy' and defends North Korea trip // The Guardian, 3.03.2013.

^{Carpenter Ted Galen.} 10 Learn to live with a nuclear North Korea // The Washington Post, 15.02.13.

¹¹ Xinhua News Agency, 8.03.2013 - http://russian.news.cn/ world / 2013 - 03/08/c_132219296.htm

¹² Second Korean war is unavoidable: DPRK FM spokesman // The Rodong Sinmun (Pyongyang), 9.03.2013 - http://www.rodong.rep.kp/ InterEn/index.php?strPageID=SF01_02_01&newsID=2013 - 03 - 09 - 0009&chAction=L

¹³ ITAR-TASS, 8.03.2013.

¹⁴ North-South relations have been put at state of war: Special statement of DPRK // The Rodong Sinmun, 30.03.13 - http://www.ro-dong.rep.kp/InterEn/index.php?strPageID=SF01_02_01&newsID=201 3 - 03 - 30 - 0013&chAction-L

¹⁵. The Supreme People's Assembly of the DPRK adopted the Law on the Development of Space Exploration / / KCNA, 1.04.2013 - http://revolucia.ru/ le408.html

¹⁶ КАРРС urges foreigners in S.Korea to take measures for shelter and evacuation // The Rodong Sinmun, 10.04.13 - http://www.rodong. rep.kp/InterEn/index.php?strPageID=SF01_02_01&newsID-2013 - 04 - 10 - 0007

¹⁷ Facts about North Korea's Musudan missile // Agence France-Presse, 8.04.2013 - http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/ afp/130408/facts-about-north-koreas-musudan-missile

¹⁸ U.S. Department of Defense. DOD news briefing with Secretary Hagel and Gen. Dempsey from the Pentagon. 28.03.2013 -http://www.defense.gov/Transcripts/Transcript.aspxVTranscriptI D-5211

¹⁹ U.S. Department of Defense. DOD news briefing on missile defense from the Pentagon. 15.03.2013 - http://www.defense.gov/ Transcripts/Transcript.aspx?TranscriptID=5205

²⁰ http://russian.news.cn/world/2013 - 02/26/c_132194111 .htm

^{Roulo Claudette.} 21 U.S., South Korea committed to peace, Hagel Says // DOD, American Forces Press Service, 28.03.2013 -http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id" 119645

²² White Paper reveals danger of U.S.-S.Korea war drills // The Rodong Sinmun, 9.04.2013 - http://www.rodong.rep.kp/InterEn/ index.php?strPageID = SF01_02_01&newsl D = 20 13 - 04 - 09 - 0021&chAction=L

²³ US sends nuclear-capable B-2 bombers to South Korea in show of force // Associated Press, 28.03.2013.

^{Londono Ernesto} 24 and De Young Karen. Aggressive talk from North Korea concerns U.S. leaders // The Washington Post, 30.03.13.

²⁵ The White House. 26.04.2013. Remarks by the President Obama and His Majesty King Abdullah II before Bilateral Meeting -http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/04/26/remarks-president-obama-and-his-majesty -king-abdullah-ii-bilateral-meeti

^{Gearan Anne} 26 and Lynch Colum. Obama wants 'strong evidence' of chemical weapons use in Syria before taking next step // The Washington Post, 27.04.2013.

^{Hoagland Jim.} 27 The costs of a Middle East arms deal // The Washington Post, 23.04.2013.

²⁸ The Conventional Military Balance on the Korean Peninsula // IISS, 20.04.2013 - http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-dossiers/ north -korean-dossier/north-koreas-weapons-programmes-a-net-asses/the-conventional-military-balance-o n-the-kore/

^{Blackwill Robert} 29 and Carnesale Albert. New Nuclear Nations. Consequences for U.S. Policy. N.Y., Council on Foreign Relations Press, 1993, p. 27.

^{Pomfret John.} 30 China won't act against a nuclear North Korea // The Washington Post, 22.03.13.

³¹ Xi warns against chaos in region // China Daily (Beijing), 8.04. 2013 - http://www.china.org.cn/business/Boao_Forum_2013/2013 - 04/ 08/content_28471875.htm

³² Ibidem.

³³ U.S. Department of Defense. As Delivered by Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, National Defense. University, 3.04.13 http://www.defense.gov/Speeches/Speech.aspx?SpeechID-1764

^{Roulo Claudette.} 34 Dempsey: North Korea's activities follow familiar pattern // DOD, American Forces Press Service, 5.04.2013 -http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id-119707

³⁵ Website of the President of the Russian Federation. Press conference following the visit to Germany. 8.04.2013 - http://xn-dlabbgf6aiiy.xn-plai/%D0%BD %D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8/17844

³⁶ Website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's answers to RTVi's questions on the situation around North Korea. Москва, 9.04.2013 - http://www.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/newsline/ C8D9B30AED27FC8944257B480053CBAЗ

³⁷ ITAR-TASS, 2.05.2013.

^{Harlan Chico.} 38 North Korea sentences American on charges he tried to topple government // The Washington Post, 2.05.20013.

³⁹ Pentagon: North Korea has capacity to make nuclear warhead for ballistic missile // The Washington Post, 14.04.13.

⁴⁰ U.S. Department of State. Remarks with Republic of Korea Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se after their meeting. 12.04.2013 -http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2013/04/207427.htm

⁴¹ U.S. Department of State. Secretary John Kerry. Remarks with Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi at the top of their meeting. 13.04.2013 - http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2013/04/2074 70.htm

⁴² DPRK FM spokesman issues statement // The Rodong Sinmun, 18.04.2013 - http://www.rodong.rep.kp/InterEn/index.php7strPageID-SF01 02_01&newsID=2013 - 04 - 18 - 0010&chAction=T

⁴³ DPRK lays out conditions for negotiations amid tensions on Korean Peninsula // Xinhua, Pyongyang, 18.04.2013 - http://news.xin huanet.com/english/world/2013 - 04/18/c_132319841.htm

⁴⁴ Facts about North Korea's Musudan missile...

⁴⁵ ITAR-TASS, 4.04.2013.

⁴⁶ The diversified employment of China's armed forces. Information office of the State Council. The People's Republic of China // Xinhua, 16.04.2013 - http://eng.mod.gov.cn/TopNews/2013 - 04/16/contcnt_ 4442750.htm

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