By many indicators, the global economy is fairly confident in overcoming the global crisis. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts (April 2010) that global gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 4.2% ^2010.1

As always, the causes of the crisis and a relatively quick way out of it will be discussed by experts for a long time. But few seem to deny that two factors played a major, if not decisive, role: large-scale anti-crisis measures, primarily by the United States and other leading Western countries, and the high degree of stability of a number of emerging economies, primarily China and India.

Most countries in Asia and Africa experienced only a slowdown in GDP growth, while in China and India it was small. According to this indicator ($4.91 trln2), ^trln)in 2009³. Formally, it remained on the 3rd place in the world hierarchy only because of the weakening of the dollar against the yen, in which it is customary to calculate comparative GDP indicators of different countries. Given the generally favorable prospects for US economic development in 2010, China will overtake Japan in the coming months simply by raising the dollar against the yen. What the United States and other developed countries are seeking from China - a revaluation of the yuan - could have the same effect, but Beijing is not yet ready for this. However, even without playing on the exchange rates, the PRC gives such a GDP increase, which has already made the Middle Kingdom the second economic power in the world.

Against this background, some experts, including the author of the article published below, Doctor of Economic Sciences A.V. Akimov, even had a natural question: was the crisis of a global nature?

The fact is that the reduction of economies (and not just their growth rates) in terms of geographical coverage has not become widespread, contrary to what most experts predicted. Due to the law of uneven economic development of countries at different stages of economic maturity and integration into the world economy, a widespread decline, even in the context of globalization, is likely to remain quite rare for the time being.

Nevertheless, the global financial and economic crisis took place: the global economy as a whole contracted by 0.6% in 2009. And world trade fell by an unprecedented War, and in economically developed countries-by 12%

The fact is that despite the great success of India and especially China, the weather in the global economy is still ultimately determined by developed economies. The Chinese and especially Indian ^{2009-2010 ) and the United States ($14.46} trln7, i.e. e. about 2/3 of the global economy ($57.22 trln8). According to IMF forecasts, the United States (an increase of 3.1% ^{of 200910}claim to be the driving force among developed countries in .

Although their growth rates look very modest, it should be borne in mind that these economies have reached a level of development, including technological development, which is an order of magnitude higher than China and India, which, according to many experts, are still at the final stage of industrial modernization.

The crisis, as it has repeatedly happened in the past, also had positive consequences.

In international economic relations, the weight of developing countries in Asia and Africa, primarily China and India, has increased. At the same time, Indonesia, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and South Africa are also among the "big Twenty" countries that consider the problems of the global economy and its recovery. Joint or parallel measures are being taken to strengthen global financial stability, limit speculative activities of large banks, and so on. At least for a while, the crisis slowed down the galloping growth of prices on world markets for energy, some commodities and food.

The crisis has also spurred structural changes in a number of developing countries. In particular, the emerging turn of the Chinese economy towards the domestic market is of great importance, although, according to experts, this process will take a long time. The share of domestic consumption is also growing in India, where the domestic market has previously played a crucial role.

The more difficult question is whether the crisis was truly systemic. If the answer is yes, then the measures taken by governments (strengthening state control over the financial system, pumping up the economy)-

social spending cuts) will have only a temporary effect. And then we can expect a second, higher wave of the crisis in the coming years.

Moreover, even if the crisis is not systemic or structural, but cyclical in nature, the mentioned anti-crisis measures are so huge, in fact unprecedented in the history of the world economy, in terms of coverage of many countries, that it is impossible to exclude the relatively rapid onset of a new economic downturn (to define it as a "second wave", as some experts do or as a new cyclical recession so far, apparently, prematurely).

The latest IMF forecasts sound encouraging, without predicting a "second wave", but also not very optimistic due to the rather moderate recovery of the global economy (growth rates in 2011 were almost at the level of 2010 - 4.3%), especially in developed countries (in 2010 - 2.3%, in 2004-2.4%) ¹².

¹ Official website of the IMF. IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO). Rebalancing Growth. April, 2010. Table 1.1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections. (Percent change) - http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/index.htm

² Official website of the General Statistical Office of the People's Republic of China. National Economy: Recovery and Posing in the Good Direction in 2009. National Bureau of Statistics of China. Ma Jiantang, Commissioner, National Bureau of Statistics of China, January 21, 2010 - http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/newsandcomingevents/t20100121_402615502.htm

³ According to preliminary official data (15.02.2010), Japan's GDP in 2009 was 474.924 trillion yen ($5.0849 trillion). Official website of the Cabinet of Ministers of Japan-Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Reference Year = 2000. Tables of GDP and its components (1980: I-2009: IV). Annual Nominal GDP (calendar year) -http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/jp/sna/qe094/gaku-mcy0941.csv

⁴ Official website of the IMF. IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO)...

⁵ Official website of the Ministry of Finance of India. Union Budget and Economic Survey. Economic Survey 2009 - 2010. State of the Economy and Prospects, p. 1 - http://indiabudget.nic.in/es2009-10/chapt2010/chapter01.pdf; INR 6,164,178 crore (10 million) converted to $ at the April 2010 exchange rate ($1 equals approximately INR 44.32).

⁶ Official website of the EU. European Union. Fact Sheet - http://www.dfat.gov.au/GEO/fs/eu.pdf

⁷ Official website of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Bureau of Economic Analysis. National Economic Accounts. Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter 2009 (Third Estimate). 26.03.2010 - http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

⁸ Official website of the IMF. IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2009 - http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/02/weodata/weorept.aspx?sy=2009&ey=2014 &scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=001%2C998&s=NGDPD&grp=1&a=1&pr. x=35&pr.y=13

⁹ Official website of the IMF. IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO). Rebalancing Growth. Op. cit.

¹⁰ Official website of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

¹¹ Official website of the IMF. IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO)...

¹² Ibidem.

Permanent link to this publication: