Libmonster ID: UK-1277
Author(s) of the publication: F. N. YURLOV

F. N. YURLOV

Doctor of Historical Sciences

Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences

global financial and economic crisis Keywords:IndiaChinaUSA

Having embarked on the path of active development of relations with the United States, New Delhi is particularly closely following the dynamics of relations between America and China. Despite Washington's assurances that the United States and India are natural partners united on the basis of democratic values, even the streamlined statements of American leaders about their readiness to further develop a strategic partnership with China cause a jealous reaction in India, increasing suspicions about the possible "collusion" of the two current superpowers.

This was reflected in the Indians ' assessment of the role of the Chinese factor in Washington's foreign policy in general and in US-Indian relations in particular. New Delhi also reacted in a peculiar way to the new accents in the US military-political strategy outlined in the speech of the head of the White House B. Obama in January 2012 and the subsequent explanations of the US Secretary of Defense L. Panetta and US Secretary of State H. Kerry. Clinton.

WILL CHINA OVERTAKE AMERICA?

New Delhi's concerns about a negative scenario for the development of US-Chinese relations for India are primarily caused by the growth of China's economic power and the associated forecasts of many American experts and politicians.

Against the backdrop of the global financial crisis, the economic downturn in the European Union and the sluggish development of the US economy, China is showing very steady economic growth: in 2012, this indicator is projected at 7.8%1.

At the XVIII Congress of the Communist Party of China in November 2012, Hu Jintao, who lost the leadership of the party to Xi Jinping, but still retains the post of chairman of the PRC, set a goal to double the GDP of the PRC and the average per capita income of the urban and rural population by 2020 (compared to 2010) .2

A certain decline in demand for Chinese goods in the EU, caused by the crisis, is to some extent offset by an increase in domestic consumption in China. This was helped by the fact that in recent decades China has managed to overcome the poverty of several hundred million people. Moreover, some of them joined the ranks of the middle class. Recently, a kind of mantra (incantation) for many Chinese and foreign companies operating in the PRC has become the production of "in China and for China" 3.

In 2011, China surpassed the United States in terms of industrial output. It accounted for about 20% of global production in China (USA - about 18%, Japan-10%, Germany-7%, Brazil-about 6%, Great Britain, Russia and France-5% each).4. Even during the crisis, the US trade deficit with China continued to grow by 18% annually, reaching $202 billion in 2011. In the first half of 2012, this indicator increased by 17% .5

According to a number of Western industrialists and joint venture managers in China, the country is also making rapid progress in the production of high-tech products. So, the president of the Chinese branch of the Swiss-Swedish engineering and design company ABB K. Fachina believes that the overall level of manufacturing capabilities in China, measured by indicators such as the quality of local products and the availability of-


Ending. For the beginning, see: Asia and Africa Today, 2013, No. 1.

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The lack of qualified expertise is 75% of the corresponding level in Germany, compared to 50% just five years ago. "We combine the development of engineering and design skills with the existing production capacity of Chinese factories and start creating new products that five years ago it was not possible to produce here," he said.6

The PRC remains attractive for foreign investment due to both its economic and political stability, as well as the growing demand of the population. The very stable state of the Chinese economy is also evidenced by the fact that back in 2007, the state of the Chinese economy was very stable. Beijing created the China Investment Corporation*, and later other funds, with the aim of actively investing abroad dollars received as a result of exporting Chinese goods. As the English expert J. R. R. Tolkien put it:Lyons, "we are no longer dealing with what is made in China, but with what is bought by China." 7

At the Group of 20 summit in November 2008, Hu called for a "new international financial order that is fair, just, inclusive and organized." Beijing has begun to encourage the use of its currency in international trade by entering into agreements with other countries ' central banks to do so. China has also signed agreements, though still largely symbolic, to pay for trade transactions in yuan and related national currencies with 13 countries, including Argentina, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea and Belarus. The yuan is already used in Mongolia, Pakistan, Thailand and Vietnam. During the first six months of 2011, trading operations in yuan totaled $146 billion. - 13 times more than in the same period of 2010. Since 2009, trade with Hong Kong has been conducted in yuan terms, first in individual provinces, and since 2010-in the whole country. In mid-2011, RMB deposits in Hong Kong were $85 billion, a 10-fold increase since 2008, and by the end of 2012, they were estimated to have increased to almost $340 billion. Given China's economic influence, the yuan could become a reserve currency along with the euro, yen, Swiss franc and British pound. Asian countries with strong economic ties to China are particularly likely to use the yuan for this purpose, as it already serves as an anchor for their currencies. But, according to most American experts, China's "currency dominance" is a matter of the distant future, if it takes place at all.8

Beijing has said it aims to include the yuan in the basket of major currencies that determine the value of special drawing rights, the IMF's reserve asset, by 2015. By 2020, it is planned to transform Shanghai into an international financial center. At the same time, Hong Kong (Hong Kong) is considered the world's largest financial center for the second year in a row.

China's achievements are derived from fundamental factors in its economy and social life and its continued urbanization, the growth of the middle class and the standard of living of the population, and the preservation of political stability.

In recent years, wages at enterprises in China have significantly increased. From 2008 to 2010 its average annual increase in industry was 11.6% (in the European Union - 1.9%, and in the United States and Japan, wages decreased, respectively, by 8.5% and 3%). Higher wages in China may lead to the transfer of foreign enterprises to other countries in Southeast Asia with cheaper labor costs. But this did not happen, as China still has an advantage thanks to more advanced infrastructure and technology, as well as huge opportunities to sell locally produced products.

The Brookings Institution in Washington estimates that China's middle class now numbers 247 million people. people, or 18.2% of the population. This category includes households that spend an average of $10 to $100 a day (at purchasing power parity). If this rate of development continues, the number of middle-class people in China will reach 607 million by 2020. The Chinese and American middle classes accounted for approximately 7% and 18% of total global spending in 2012, respectively. By 2020, these figures can be almost equal, amounting to 12.8% for China and 12.9% for the United States. In 2010, the average income of an urban family in China was $13.4 thousand - about a quarter of the corresponding figure in the United States. But the Chinese have a different consumption pattern than the Americans. On average, the level of savings in a Chinese family is more than 30% of all income - significantly more than in the American one. In addition, the structure of their expenses differs. The Chinese spend significantly less (2.5 times) on rent or mortgages when purchasing a house or apartment (relative to their salary), more on food (about twice), on children's education and healthcare (three times), and on tourism and entertainment (twice) 9.

It is no coincidence that materials on the topic are increasingly appearing in American scientific circles: "Will China overtake America and when?" Arvind Subramanian, an expert at the American Petersen Institute for International Economics, writes in his article "The Inevitable Superpower. Why China's Dominance is Preordained " concludes that within the next 20 years, China will become a dominant power in the global economy. In terms of GDP, it will surpass the United States, with-


* For more information, see: Samartsev V. P. Sovereign Wealth Fund in Chinese // Asia and Africa Today, 2011, No. 1 (Editor's note).

** For more information, see: Andreev V. P. Yuan on the way to the world currency / / Asia and Africa Today, 2012, N 10, 11 (editor's note).

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the gap between them will be larger than expected: in 2030, this figure will be comparable to the superiority of America over other countries in the mid-1970s. 10

Subramanian's calculations are based on the dominance index he developed, which consists of three main indicators: a country's nominal GDP, its foreign trade (the sum of exports and imports of goods), and the volume of net lending to other countries. All other indicators of dominance, such as military power, are largely derived from the size and condition of a country's economy. The index is based on the analysis of data starting from 1870 (taking into account the then economic positions of the UK and the US) and up to 2030. The forecast is based on a conservative estimate of the annual growth of the Chinese economy in the next 20 years at the rate of 7% with 2.5% for the US (the average growth rate over the past 30 years), although long-term The US Congressional Budget Office forecast is even lower - 2.2%11.

However, Derek Sissors, a fellow at the Conservative Heritage Foundation's Center for Asian Studies, believes that Subramanian ignores China's weaknesses and also underestimates the ability of the United States to influence the course of economic competition with China. In particular, domestic political problems may hinder China's economic growth, and the possibility that it will "simply slow down"is not excluded. In the foreseeable future, China will not be able to achieve the degree of influence in the world that America has long enjoyed: "The world should not expect the coronation of a new global leader, but rather prepare for a situation in which the only leader will be absent"12.

Certain doubts about the most optimistic forecasts for the future of the Chinese economy are also expressed by the authoritative English Economist magazine (in the American edition).: "The combination of political control and market reforms has given China huge advantages. Its rise in the last two decades has been more impressive than the acceleration in economic development of any other country... However, while China's rise continues, its development model cannot remain the same. After all, the country, like the whole world, is changing. China is coping well with the global crisis. But in order to maintain high growth, the economy must shift from investment and exports to domestic consumption." The magazine, referring to the" lack of democracy " in China, claims that in the future, China "will have to move away from the development formula that has served it so well until now." 13

It should also be taken into account that, despite the achievements in industrial production, China has yet to achieve the creation of breakthrough technologies based on new development ideas*.

At the same time, American scientists S. Mellaby and O. Wethington warn that experts who "witnessed the phenomenal economic recovery of China, which ignored the recommendations of Western textbooks, should be more modest and restrained in their predictions that this time China will inevitably stumble"14.

REFLECTIONS ON THE CHINESE "MILITARY THREAT"

China's growing economic power, coupled with an increased defense capability, has raised concerns in the United States that the emergence of a second superpower could harm American interests, especially in East Asia and the Pacific.

In a speech to the 18th CPC National Congress, Hu Jintao stated that China, while always pursuing the path of peaceful development, will unwaveringly pursue an independent and independent peaceful foreign policy.15

At the same time, the Chinese leader noted that the interweaving of existing security problems with development security problems and traditional security threats with non-traditional ones requires significant modernization of the national defense and army. China should accelerate the implementation of mechanization and informatization as a double historical task, and try to finish mechanization in the main by 2020, and ensure serious progress in the field of informatization. Hu stressed that it is necessary, in accordance with the new requirements of the state development and state security strategy and with an emphasis on the full implementation of the historical mission of the army in the new century at a new stage, to implement the military-strategic course for active defense of the new period, while paying increased attention to the security of the sea, space and network space, actively planning the use of military forces during the peace period, continuously expanding and deepening the preparation for military struggle, increasing their capabilities in performing various military tasks and, above all, in winning victory in local wars that are going on in the context of informatization 16.

Neither Washington nor Delhi was happy with such statements, especially about winning victory in local wars.

The Americans point out that as China ramps up its military efforts and rapidly modernizes its armed forces, it is paying special attention to creating a new military environment.-


* A number of experts, including Russian ones, also note that the share of investment in China's GDP continues to increase, while the share of consumer demand decreases. This dynamic threatens to further exacerbate the existing structural and social imbalances, which is fraught with serious problems (overproduction, construction of "roads to nowhere" and deepening inequality between rich and poor, urban and rural, coastal provinces and outback) (editor's note by E. Rusakov).

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In order to weaken America's ability to "demonstrate superior strength" in the region, it is necessary to use "asymmetric" capabilities. Its policy of "preventing or pre-empting" the presence of U.S. forces in the region relies on China's possession of thousands of precision-guided land-based ballistic and cruise missiles, advanced anti-ship missile aircraft, nuclear-powered and diesel-powered submarines, radars,and reconnaissance satellites. 17

Washington experts believe that in the event of a possible conflict with Taiwan, Beijing seeks to build the capacity to strike at American military bases in the Pacific Ocean adjacent to the Asian mainland and push US Navy aircraft carriers beyond the so-called first island chain, stretching from the Aleutian Islands in the north to Kalimantan Island (Indonesia) in the south*.

As Mr. Kissinger points out, some influential groups in the United States believe that the Chinese are aiming to take America's place as the most influential force in the western (for the United States) part of the Pacific Ocean. Although China is inferior to America in military power, it has the ability to create unacceptable risks for it in the event of a conflict between the two countries. In addition, the PRC is developing strategic weapons that can negate the traditional advantages of the United States: the potential for a retaliatory nuclear missile strike, extended-range anti-ship ballistic missiles, as well as means of asymmetric strikes from space and waging wars in cyberspace.

This group of American strategists also fears that China will be able to secure a predominant presence at sea by controlling a chain of islands on its coastal periphery. China's neighbors, having become dependent on trade with it and having lost confidence in the ability of the United States to respond effectively to China's actions, may reconsider their policies in its favor. Ultimately, this could lead to the creation of a Beijing-led bloc of Asian countries that dominates the western Pacific.

For their part, Kissinger continues, the Chinese view the United States as a "wounded superpower" that seeks to prevent the emergence of any adversary that challenges it. In their opinion, despite the PRC's desire to develop cooperation with America, Washington aims to prevent the growth of China's influence by using military force and involving a number of Asian states in the system of countering the growing power of the PRC. However, sustained cooperation between China and the United States, Kissinger believes, may be in America's interests, since it serves the purpose of neutralizing China. "Systemic hostility,"he writes," is often seen as an integral part of American cultural and technological influence, which sometimes takes the form of deliberate pressure to damage China's internal consensus and traditional values. " 18

At the same time, some American political analysts believe that the threat from China is not so great yet: in the near future, Chinese missiles and submarines will not be re-launched.-

Table

US and Chinese Armed Forces (2010, the first Chinese aircraft carrier Shi Lan entered service in 2012)

 

USA

China

Defense budget ($billion) 2010-2011

739,3

89,8

Defense budget share in GDP, %

4,9

1,3

Armed forces, million people

1,6

2,3

Intercontinental ballistic missiles

450

66

Bombers

155

132

Nuclear submarines (submarines) with ballistic missiles

14

3

Tanks

6302

2800

Infantry fighting vehicles

6452

2390

4th generation aircraft

3092

747

Attack helicopters

862

16

Transport helicopters

2809

294

Cruisers/destroyers

83

13

Aircraft carriers

11

1

Frigates

28

65

Premier League

57

5

Transport aircraft

847

57

Heavy unmanned aircraft

370

0

Intelligence satellites

20

11

Navigation satellites

31

10

AWACS(Aviation Early Detection and Control System)

104

14



Source: The Economist. 7.04.2012.


* For more information, see: Migunova O. V. China-the Lord of the Seas? // Asia and Africa Today, 2010, No. 5 (Editor's note).

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a real force in the vast expanses of the Pacific Ocean. In addition, they note, the Chinese have had no combat experience for more than 30 years, while American troops are "constantly fighting and training" (Iraq, Afghanistan).

A comparison of the capabilities of the Chinese and American armed forces also shows that the United States is significantly superior to China in almost all components of the armed forces (see Table), except for the number of military personnel.

According to the American "pigeons", in favor of the absence of a clear threat from China, it is also indicated by the fact that it is engaged in socio-economic development issues and allocates no more than 2% of GDP to defense. In addition, China is "not an expansionist power", with the exception of its claims to the Paracel Islands and the Spratly Archipelago in the South China Sea. In general, in their opinion, it is possible to avoid a military clash between the United States and China. One of the conditions for this is for America to pursue a foreign policy that combines its military might with skillful diplomacy.19

WHO AND WHAT TO BELIEVE?

When Obama unveiled the new U.S. defense strategy in January 2012, he said :" We will strengthen our presence in the Asia-Pacific region, and budget cuts will not be made at the expense of this critical region. " 20

Within the framework of this concept, Washington began to implement measures to strengthen its position in the Asia-Pacific region. One of them was a trip in May-June 2012 by US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta to nine Asian countries in order to explain the new US defense policy, primarily the pivotal role that the Asia-Pacific region plays in it. On the eve of this trip, in his speech at the US Naval Academy, making routine diplomatic curtsies about the importance of strengthening relations with China through defense departments, he stressed: "The Chinese Armed Forces are growing and modernizing. We must be vigilant. We must be strong. We must be prepared for any challenges. " 21 And at the forum in Singapore, in a speech to the defense ministers of East Asian states, the Pentagon chief supported his words with concrete data on the beginning redeployment of the country's naval forces in the Asia-Pacific region and equipping them with the latest high-tech weapons. By 2020, as a result of the relocation, the proportion of US Navy ships in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans will change from the current "50-50" to "60-40"*.

On June 2, 2012, the US Secretary of Defense signed an agreement in Singapore on the entry of US warships into this port. Then in Vietnam, he visited the port of Cam Ranh, where a large American base was located during the US War in Vietnam, and after the Vietnamese victory in 1975, a Soviet naval base was located in Cam Ranh (in the late 1980s, Moscow closed it). Panetta stated that the United States wants to use this strategically important port and harbor for calling American warships.22

During the trip, the Pentagon chief also visited India, where he discussed the new US strategy in Asia and the development of military partnership between the two countries. India, he said, is a key link in the implementation of the new US strategy in the Asian region23.

Washington's actions under the banner of "return to Asia" were met with caution in Beijing. Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, who has already been elected General secretary of the CPC and will soon become a full-fledged leader of China, said in this regard that " given the desire of peoples for peace, the emphasis on strengthening military power and building alliances is "not at all what most countries in the region hope for." 24

However, in Delhi, attention was drawn to more diplomatic statements by the head of the White House in his speech on the new policy in Asia: "This is what we are trying to make clear to the Chinese. You guys have already grown up. You are the most populous country on Earth, you are the largest or second largest economy in the world, depending on how you measure it, and you will soon, almost inevitably, become the largest economy. I think the Chinese government respects us, respects what we are trying to do, and recognizes that we will be players in the Asia-Pacific region for a long time to come. In my opinion, it also recognizes that we are in no way preventing them from continuing their exceptional economic growth." Obama also denied that America is pursuing a policy of containing China. "Where we have serious disagreements, we are able to resolve them without them spiraling into a bad spiral." 25

In March 2012, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton confirmed and developed Obama's ideas on partnership with China. Noting the great economic success of the PRC, she stressed that not only China itself, but also US-Chinese relations have been transformed. The two countries ' economies and security interests have become deeply and irreversibly interdependent. They share common threats, such as nuclear proliferation, piracy, and climate change. The US is committed to partnering with China, and America and other countries expect China to make a more explicit statement of its leadership. China and the United States cannot solve all the world's problems. But without them, any global problems can hardly be solved. The US wants China to take full responsibility as a major global player. Clinton noted that the US relations with


* For more information, see: Leksyutina Ya. V. USA-China: rivalry in Southeast Asia is getting worse // Asia and Africa Today, 2012, N 3; Semin A.V. Triangle USA-China-Japan and the Asia-Pacific region /U Asia and Africa Today, 2012, N 9 (editor's note).

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China is developing against the backdrop of growing ties with America's allies - Japan, South Korea, Thailand and the Philippines. America's ties with other fast-growing powers are expanding, including India, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Singapore.26

Indian observers did not ignore the fact that the US Secretary of State only briefly mentioned India, along with other states.

During a farewell trip to China in September 2012 (Clinton is retiring), the US Secretary of State said that "the United States welcomes the rise of a strong, prosperous and peaceful China. ...We support the strengthening of China's role in world affairs. This strengthens global stability and helps to cope with pressing problems." At the same time, she stressed that the United States and China "will never have the same views on all issues."

The American factor has an ambiguous impact on some important aspects of India's foreign policy.

During a visit to India in May 2012, Clinton stressed the importance of expanding trade between the United States and India and deepening their security cooperation, including counterterrorism. It called for a joint response to existing challenges and opportunities to build peace and prosperity in South and Central Asia, including Afghanistan, to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, and to develop a joint approach to the Asia-Pacific region. Clinton emphasized the practical and symbolic significance of India signing the Declaration on Strategic Partnership with Afghanistan in October 2011, and the United States signing a similar agreement in May 2012.28

In turn, Indian Foreign Minister S. M. Krishna stressed the importance of relations between the two countries both for their future and for the development of the entire world in the 21st century. He noted the convergence of views of the two countries on a number of global and regional issues.

However, Delhi said that for success in Afghanistan, as well as for ensuring regional security and stability, the elimination of terrorist hideouts in Pakistan is crucial. The Indians have called for a peaceful solution to the Iranian nuclear issue, as Iran is a key country in the supply of oil to India, and India has vital interests in the Persian Gulf countries, where about 6 million Indians work. Indian exports to these countries amount to more than $100 billion, and a significant proportion of remittances from the Indian diaspora also come from this region29.

The importance of India-Iran relations was confirmed by the participation of Indian Prime Minister M. Singh in the XVI Conference of Heads of State and Government of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), which was held in Tehran in August 2012.

The Prime Minister chose the NAM Conference rostrum to express India's position on a number of major international issues. He said that NAM, representing the vast majority of humanity, was a powerful force for global peace, security and development. The movement's overall goals of preserving "our strategic space, ensuring our social and economic development, and striving for a more just and equitable world remain as important and urgent today as in the past." 30

M. Singh emphasized that today's global governance structures still depend on the balance of power in the world left over from the past. It is not surprising that they have proved inadequate in dealing with the current economic and political crises. This is particularly evident in the area of international peace and security and in the failure of attempts to restore fair economic and financial mechanisms.

The Prime Minister noted that India, as the largest democracy in the world, supports the desire of peoples to create democratic societies in the countries of West Asia and North Africa. But these transformations should not be caused by foreign interventions that increase the suffering of ordinary citizens. The deteriorating situation in Syria has become a matter of particular concern. India calls on all parties in the country to resolve the crisis by peaceful means through a comprehensive political process that meets the legitimate aspirations of the citizens of Syria. Today, the movement must renew its commitment to support an early solution to the Palestinian question so that the long-suffering people of Palestine can live in peace and dignity in their State.

Singh said that the Non-Aligned Movement should lead the way in building representative, credible and effective global governance structures. He expressed hope that NAM will be able to take joint action on the reform of such institutions as the UN Security Council, the World Bank and the IMF. The current challenges, Singh stressed, cannot be effectively resolved without greater participation of developing countries in global trade, finance and investment. Developing countries can become engines of global growth. They should support each other in solving problems that best serve their interests. 31

INSTEAD OF "THE END OF HISTORY" - "THE END OF THE NEOLIBERAL MODEL"

In the general context of relations between China, India and America in the context of the global crisis, there is a certain interest

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presents an essay by American researchers (2011) Nancy Birdsale and Francis Fukuyama "The Post-Washington Consensus".

The authors conclude that if the global financial crisis has put any model of development to the test, it has been the free market model, or the neoliberal model that emphasizes the weakening of state influence, deregulation of the economy, private property, and low taxes. By the beginning of the global crisis, large, fast-growing countries were largely isolated from foreign financial markets, accumulating large foreign currency reserves and maintaining control over the banking system. This saved them from global economic shocks and led to impressive growth in the current crisis.

Thus, the American version of capitalism, if not completely lost its reputation, at least ceased to be dominant. In the next decade, fast-growing markets and low-income countries can modernize their approach to economic policy, showing more flexibility and efficiency in the face of increasing competition. They will be less interested in the free movement of capital and more interested in narrowing the income gap through social security programs and greater support for national industry. They will also listen less and less to the advice of developed countries.

The authors ' main conclusion is that the crisis highlighted the instability inherent in capitalist systems, even those as advanced and sophisticated as the United States. Capitalism regularly generates many innocent victims who have lost their jobs and are on the verge of survival. People rely on their Governments to maintain a certain level of stability in times of social and economic turmoil. This lesson is unlikely to be forgotten in developing countries, whose legitimacy will depend on their ability to provide better social protection to their populations.32

Here we see a clear departure from the idea of the "end of history" and the search for new forms of development. Some of them have already been offered before in India and other countries. These can be their variants of a mixed economy, which take into account not only the requirements of the market, but also the social interests of people.

Fukuyama became famous for his 1992 book "The End of History and the Last Man", in which he proclaimed that with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the ideological struggle in the world ended with the triumph of the ideas of liberal democracy. Moreover, he argued that liberal democracy could prove to be "the end point of the ideological evolution of humanity, the final form of government of human society, and as such represents the end of history." 33

Now Fukuyama in the article " The future of history. Can liberal democracy survive the decline of the middle class? " (2012) writes that the global financial crisis and continued deep stagnation in Europe are products of a model of unregulated financial capitalism. The main problem today-the lack of new ideas-is a sign of ill health, since competition is necessary not only in economic activities, but also in intellectual debates. The latter is particularly important given that "the current form of globalized capitalism is eroding the social base of the middle class." 34

DELHI AND WASHINGTON'S REACTION TO THE 18TH CPC CONGRESS

Indian political observers noted the" smooth, orderly " transition of power in China from the fourth to the fifth generation of Chinese leaders after the removal of the "hardline pro-Maoist" Bo Xilai and his party supporters from the politburo of the CPC Central Committee. They emphasized that China has experienced rapid economic growth over the past decade, making it the second-largest economy in the world and increasing per capita income by five times. That the CCP exercised firm political control, showing minimal tolerance for dissent. Indians drew attention to Hu Jintao's statement that China "will never copy the Western political system" and his warning that failure to fight corruption could lead to "the collapse of the party and the fall of the state." 35

At the same time, they believe that the fifth generation of China's leadership is headed by Xi Jinping, 59, who was elected to the post of General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee it will face new serious problems, including the problem of unbalanced growth and growing corruption in the country. The gap between urban and rural incomes increased by 68% in 2012 compared to 1985. The transformation of China's economic model from export-oriented growth to domestic consumption will require difficult measures to contain the influence of state-owned companies. The new leadership of the PRC will have to act more decisively than the previous leaders of China.

Some Indian observers believe that Hu Jintao was one of the Chinese leaders who, after the Mao Zedong era, "reset" relations with India, creating elements of strategic balance in the previously pro-Pakistan foreign policy of the PRC. Over the past decade, China has largely improved relations with India, which suffered after the 1962 Sino-Indian war.

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Washington also paid close attention to the CCP congress.

As noted above, some American political analysts believe that the "mutual strategic distrust" between the United States and China has intensified over the past two years and creates a vicious circle that can lead to a tough confrontation that is dangerous for both countries. According to the Obama administration, China's militarization and toughening of its position on territorial disputes with Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam run counter to US interests in the region. In turn, Beijing has a negative attitude to the" return " of the United States to Asia.

According to the New York Times," there is a need to 'reset' US-China relations, and the initiative should be taken by the new Chinese leadership, signaling to the second Obama administration that Beijing is ready to put relations between the two countries on a stronger basis. Such a signal could be concrete steps to resolve territorial disputes with Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines and other countries. Another area that is responsible for the deterioration of US-China relations is the "conservative reverse movement" in China over the past decade, especially in the area of domestic political reforms. Xi Jinping can change this dynamic by starting with a symbolic gesture, releasing Nobel Peace Prize winner Liu Xiaobo from prison on medical grounds.

Such a reset policy will not lead to a rapid change in US-China relations, but it will start a long way towards establishing the image of Xi Jinping as a determined and forward-looking leader who intends to establish stronger bilateral relations with the United States.37

Columbia University professor Andrew Nathan and RAND Corporation political scientist Andrew Scobell emphasize that " China will not be able to rule the world until the United States cedes leadership to it. Such a rise by China would be a threat to America and the world, and it will only happen if Washington allows it. As long as the US can solve its internal problems and adhere to its values, it will be able to cope with the rise of China."38.

Shortly after the US presidential election and the 18th CCP Congress, events occurred that to a certain extent marked the direction of the future development of relations in the India-China-US triangle.

On the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit in Phnom Penh on November 19, 2012 Prime Minister of India M. Singh met with Premier of the State Council of China Wen Jiabao. The Chinese leader, who is retiring in March 2013, assured Singh that the new leadership of China will continue to attach great importance to relations with India. A wide range of issues related to India-China cooperation, especially the development of trade and economic relations, were discussed at the meeting. Following the meeting between the two leaders, Indian Minister of Trade and Industry A. Sharma said that stable bilateral relations between the two countries are important both for them and for the entire region, and that the Indian government is determined to strengthen relations with China. 39

It is also interesting that on the last day of the CCP Congress, the influential Indian magazine Outlook published an article by Hu Shishin, director of the Chinese Institute of South and Southeast Asia and Oceania, titled "New Sunrise". It emphasized that the new generation of Chinese leaders will strive even more than before to preserve and strengthen Sino-Indian relations. It was noted that " the United States will certainly try to attract more resources to its side in the Asia-Pacific region in order to contain China. India's policy towards such a US strategy could play a significant role in this "big game". If persistent US lobbying convinces India that creating a kind of "semi-alliance" with America will allow it to gain more strategic advantages than maintaining equidistance from the US and China, Delhi may join the American policy of containing China. But this would lead to a serious decline in Sino-Indian relations. " 40

Obama's landmark visit to Cambodia, Thailand and Myanmar came just two weeks after his re-election as President of the United States. Among these countries, special attention is drawn to Myanmar, which has a common border with China with a length of more than 2 thousand km. Some Chinese international experts believe that America has always shown "strategic concern" about China's influence in this region, based on the fact that the PRC wants to use Myanmar as a "springboard" for access to the Indian Ocean. 41 (By the way, This "concern" may coincide with India's position on this issue.)

During a brief meeting with Singh in Phnom Penh on November 20, 2012, Obama told him, " India is a big part of my agenda."42 This statement lays out the essence of the current and possibly future relationship between the US and India, although it is unclear what the word "big" means.

* * *

The complex and contradictory nature of relations in the India-China-US triangle largely determines the current and, possibly, future trends in the development of relations between East and West, which is manifested in the strengthening role of Asian countries in world processes. At the same time, there is a noticeable weakening of the influence of Western powers, including America. Latest software-

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It still retains its leading role in the world, but is gradually losing its economic position to China, which is increasingly establishing itself as a second superpower. China continues to focus on domestic issues, using trade, economic, scientific and technical ties with foreign countries for this purpose. It is objectively interested in expanding and deepening relations with both the West and the East, including India, although taking into account its greater economic weight, as well as in peaceful development and maintaining stability in the country and on its immediate periphery.

For its part, India is forced to focus on solving large-scale domestic socio-economic problems. This consumes its main resources. It is interested in decades of peaceful development that would allow it to become one of the world's leading countries in terms of combined economic and political power. The current very limited involvement of New Delhi in world political processes largely explains its restraint and even detachment from participation in acute world conflicts, except for those that directly threaten its security (for example, in Afghanistan). Nevertheless, the impression that India has not yet fully decided on its place in the world is probably not entirely correct, because today it clearly demonstrates that it is essentially a balancing state that pragmatically decides how to act in a particular situation. This approach determines the course of Delhi to actively develop relations with the United States in many areas. Nor can India fail to maintain a meaningful dialogue with China, focusing on the positive aspects, rather than on the remaining problems in relations between the two countries.

In the India-China-US triangle, Washington prefers China as the largest trade and economic partner and at the same time a possible future political opponent. At the same time, there is an ambivalent attitude of America towards China and India. It wants to involve India as an ally in its proposed standoff with China. But India is unlikely to become part of an outright anti-China bloc, which would create tensions on its borders. Nor is it in its best interests to "contain" China politically. Moreover, in its relations with the United States, as with other countries, India is likely to position itself as a future great power, rather than a junior partner.


1 World Economic Outlook. October 2012. Coping with High Debt and Sluggish Growth. International Monetary Fund, p. 2 -http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/02/pdf/text.pdf

2 Xy Jintao set a goal to double the GDP and per capita incomes of urban and rural populations by 2020. Пекин, 8.11.2012 - http://russian.news.cn/dossiers/2012 - 11/08/с 1319592 32.htm

3 The Financial Times, 12.06.2012.

4 IHS Global Insight: Thomson Renters Datastrcam // The Financial Times, 13.06.2012.

Devis Bob 5 and Orlik Tom. Bucking Trend, U.S. -China Trade Gap Grows//The Wall Street Journal, 11.07.2012.

6 Ibidem.

Sender Henry. 7 China's Investment Arm Goes on Global Shopping Spree // The Financial Times, 12.06.2012.

Mallaby Sebastian 8 and Wethington Olin. The Future of the Yuan. China's Struggle to Internationalize Its Currency // Foreign Affairs. January/February 2012.

Burkitt Lauri 9 and Davis Bob. Chasing China's Shoppers. How "Best Buy" Tapped a Supercharged Middle Class - Tough Trial and Error // The Wall Street Journal, 15.06.2012.

Subramanian Arvind. 10 The Inevitable Power. Why China's Dominance is a Sure Thing// Foreign Affairs. September/October, 2011.

11 Ibid.

12 Foreign Affairs. January/February 2012.

13 China and the Paradox of Prosperity // The Economist, 28.01.2012.

Mallaby Sebastian 14 and Wethington Olin. Op. cit.

15 Hu Jintao: China will always follow the path of peaceful development / / Xinhua. 8.11.2012 - http://russian.news.cn/dossiers/2012-ll/08/c_131960202.htm

16 Hu Jintao: China will try to finish mostly mechanization of the army by 2020, and ensure serious changes in the field of information technology / / Xinhua. 8.11.2012 - http://russian.news.cn/ dossiers/2012-ll/08/c_131960014.htm

17 China's Military Rise // The Economist, 07.04.2012.

18 Ibid.

19 Ibid.

20 Press Trust of India, 20.01.2012.

21 U.S. Department of Defense. U.S. Naval Academy Commencement. As Delivered by Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta, Annapolis, MD, May 29, 2012 - http://www.defense.gov/Speeches/Speech.aspx? SpeechID-1679

22 The Economist, 09.06.2012.

23 The Wall Street Journal, 07.06.2012.

24 Xi Jinping, the Probable Next President of China, Endures his Rite of Passage in America // The Economist, 18.02.2012.

25 Press Trust of India...

26 Clinton Hillary Rodham. Secretary of State. Remarks at the U.S. Institute of Peace China Conference. Washington D.C., March 7, 2012 - http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2012/03/185402.htm

27 U.S. Department of State. Remarks With Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi. Remarks Hillary Rodham Clinton Secretary of State Beijing, China. September 5, 2012 - http://www.state.gov/secretary/ rm/2012/09/197343.htm

28 Ibid.

29 Outlookindia.com/ 08.05.2012.

30 Statement by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at the XVI Summit of the Non-Aligned Movement // The Hindu. 30.08.2012.

31 Ibid.

32 Outlookindia..: Birdsale Nancy and Fukuyama Francis. The Post-Washington Consensus // Foreign Affairs. January/February, 2012.

Fukuyama Francis. 33 The End of History and the Last Man. New York: The Free Press, A Division of Macmillan, 1992, p. X, XI); for more information, see: Yurlov F. N. The end of History or the search for a new path? // Asia and Africa today, 1997, N 1-2; Russia and India in the changing world, Moscow, IV RAS, 1998, p. 1-14.

Fukuyama Francis. 34 The Future of History. Can Liberal Democracy Survive the Decline of the Middle Class? // Foreign Affairs. January/February 2012.

35 The Hindu. 12.11.2012.

36 Ibid., 16.11.2012.

37 The New York Times. 13.11.2011.

Nathan Andrew F. 38 and Andrew Scobell. How China Sees America. The Sum of Beijing's Fears // Foreign Affairs. September/October, 2012.

39 The Hindu. 19.11.2012, 20.11.2012.

Ни Shishing 40 A New Dawn - outlookindia.com/14.11.2012.

41 The Economist. 17.11.2012.

42 The Hindu. 20.11.2012.


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