A. A. PAKHOMOV
Candidate of Economic Sciences
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Keywords: FDI exports, BRICS, mergers and acquisitions, non-financial TNCs, developing countries, transition economies
The year 2010 is sure to go down in the history of the world economy - for the first time, developing countries and countries with economies in transition accounted for more than half of global capital inflows. Although more than two - thirds of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) continue to involve developed countries, the share of this group of States as host countries in these transactions has increased from 26% in 2007 to 31% in 2009.1 Their share in the global M & A market has also grown steadily. In the international investment sphere: over the past 10-15 years, the volume of accumulated foreign direct investment (FDI) has actually doubled, while the volume of exports has increased 5-fold.
At the beginning of the last decade (2001-2010), Russia, China, India, as well as a number of other emerging economies of the world have their own transnational corporations (TNCs), which radically changes the dynamics and forms of the investment process on a global scale. Multinational companies-Japanese (in the 1970s) and "Asian tigers" (in the 1980s)-were already changing the structure and balance of power of the world economy. As a result, since the 1990s, corporations from the fast-growing Asian economies - Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and the Republic of Korea-have been playing an increasingly active role in international markets, not only becoming the world's leading producers of goods and services, but also active exporters of capital.
At the beginning of the twenty-first century, a new generation of TNCs emerged on the global level, based on the leading companies of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa)2. The emergence of these transnational corporations is due to the specifics of economic growth in this group of states, associated with the evolution of large and super-large national companies. The latter serve not only as the main source of capital investment, but also as the driving forces of technological progress in their countries. 3
WHAT IS THE "INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MOVEMENT"?
Among the main economic characteristics of BRICS TNCs ' activities in the global economic arena, dynamically growing indicators of their participation in international capital flows are singled out4. Thus, the share of this group of countries in global FDI exports increased from 1% to 11% between 2000 and 2010. Corporations from the BRICS countries have concluded over 2.5 thousand transactions for the acquisition of foreign assets during this period5. In addition, the BRICS countries are considered a good place to invest foreign capital all over the world. In 2010, these Countries accounted for about 18% of the funds invested by various countries outside their national territories.6
Even in the pre-crisis period, the BRICS countries occupied a prominent place in the international investment process7. Rapid domestic economic growth,
Chart. Dynamics of accumulated investments abroad from BRICS countries in 2001-2010 (as a percentage of global capital investment).
Source: Oxford Analytica. March 1, 2011, p. 2.
Favorable global market conditions and the liberalization of the export of national capital have contributed to a boom in BRICS FDI exports over the past decade, which peaked at $147 billion in 2008 ($146 billion in 2010). In the so-called outbound investment segment, China and the Russian Federation were among the top ten exporters in 2010 FDI in the world 8.
In the past decade, the BRICS countries ' share in the global volume of accumulated capital abroad has also grown (see chart). Thus, in 2010 (at current prices and exchange rate levels), the share of this group reached 5.3% (compared to 2.5% in 2005 and 1.7% in 2000). Russia accounted for 2.1% of accumulated global FDI ($433.7 billion), while China accounted for 1.5% ($297.6 billion), Brazil - 0.9% ($181 billion), India - over 0.4% ($92.4 billion) and South Africa - about 0.4% ($81.1 billion)9.
In general, the share of the BRICS countries in accumulated global investment is still not so large compared to their potential, since the active export of capital by their companies began relatively recently. But it seems that it will increase significantly in the medium term.
BRICS TNCs have several things in common. By realizing their competitive advantages accumulated in domestic markets, they are successfully advancing to the global investment market, expanding their transnational activities. In this case, foreign assets and projects serve as an additional factor that enhances not only their competitiveness at the global level, but also their position in national markets.
In addition, the quantitative indicators and trends of FDI exports from the BRICS countries are generally quite comparable. What they have in common is that companies from this group of countries tend to invest in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) rather than in new projects (greenfield).
Thus, in the period 2000-2010, according to UNCTAD estimates, Indian companies concluded 951 M&A transactions, Chinese - 598, Russian - 511, South African - 299 and Brazilian - 22610. In terms of average purchase costs, Russian corporations were ahead; companies from India usually acquired low-cost assets.
Greenfield projects are less actively used by BRICS companies as a way to invest abroad. UNCTAD estimates that between 2005 and 2010, an average of 725 such projects were registered annually (5.5% of the global total), amounting to about $70 billion (7.5%).11
Despite the fact that new greenfield projects are generally less expensive in terms of cost than M&A transactions, the BRICS countries prefer to invest in the purchase of these assets. This approach allows companies, as a rule, to save time on obtaining the expected result (access to resources and technologies, etc.), which, if they have an excess of financial resources, seems quite justified. In addition, the gain in time gives them a chance to catch up with their rivals in a tough competition.
Initially, the BRICS companies carried out investment expansion in neighboring countries or in countries with a close socio-cultural community. But then they moved to other parts of the world in search of new markets and missing resources. Currently, given the desire of the BRICS countries to acquire assets of foreign companies with advanced technologies, modern management experience and highly qualified personnel, the main place of application of their capital is mainly developed countries.
In recent years, the motivation for BRICS companies to invest abroad is largely determined by strategic messages, rather than the desire to quickly make a profit. This trend reflects the role of state-owned corporations that implement national goals in this process. For example, most Chinese companies that do business abroad are owned or directly controlled by the state. Many large corporations in other BRICS countries also represent the public sector, such as Gazprom in Russia, Petrobras in Brazil, and ONGC in India.12
FROM REGIONAL TO GLOBAL
Gradually, a number of BRICS companies are turning from regional corporations into global TNCs, and some of them already have not only the scale of their activities that corresponds to this status, but also high - quality characteristics-global brands, a large number of highly qualified personnel and a competitive business model. Among them, experts include, for example, the Russian company Lukoil, Chinese CITIC and COSCO, Indian Tata, Brazilian Vale SA., SASOL from South Africa and a number of others. However, in the ranking of the 100 largest non-financial TNCs in the world in terms of foreign assets in 2010, only CITIC and Vale SA were present. However, this indicates, rather, the great potential for growth of corporations from this group of states as leading investors, rather than the weakness of their positions 13.
The governments of the BRICS countries support the foreign expansion of their leading corporations in various forms and with varying degrees of efficiency. In particular, China is implementing a policy under the motto " Become global!", for the implementation of which the state has allocated $84 billion. In India and South Africa, foreign exchange controls and capital transfers are being liberalized, while in Russia and Brazil, government agencies are creating special conditions for promoting their "national champions"in foreign markets. 14
As practice shows, the investment and entrepreneurial activities of TNCs from BRICS countries have an ambiguous impact on the" host " countries. So, because of this activity, some states are deprived of traditional incentives-
Table 1
Representation of Russian companies in the Top-100 list of leading non-financial TNCs from developing countries
Company |
Branch |
Position in the rating |
Performance indicators abroad |
TNI (%) |
|||
Assets ($ million) |
Sales ($ million) |
Number of employees |
|||||
By volume of foreign assets |
By TNI level* |
||||||
Lukoil |
Oil and gas industry |
10 |
78 |
23 992 |
38 409 |
21 628 |
34 |
Severstal |
Metallurgy industry |
27 |
57 |
10 975 |
9 098 |
15 079 |
47 |
Evraz |
Metallurgy industry |
31 |
62 |
10 363 |
6 822 |
24 200 |
45 |
Sistema AFK |
Telecommunications |
48 |
93 |
6 421 |
2 687 |
12 375 |
14 |
Mechel |
Metallurgy industry |
57 |
80 |
5 163 |
2 739 |
8 629 |
33 |
Rusal |
Metallurgy industry |
74 |
64 |
3 801 |
6 696 |
18 161 |
41 |
Norilsk Nickel |
Metallurgy industry |
79 |
70 |
3 412 |
9 538 |
3 839 |
38 |
MTS |
Telecommunications |
82 |
91 |
3 237 |
1 811 |
6 226 |
19 |
TMK |
Metallurgy industry |
96 |
85 |
2 248 |
1 290 |
4 000 |
27 |
* TS - an integral indicator that "sums up" a number of parameters involved in calculating the rating of companies.
Источник: UNCTAD. World Investment Report 2011 - www.unctad.org/fdistatistics
for the development of national economies. Their ability to borrow new technologies and best management practices is also decreasing. Besides, when introducing themselves to other countries, TNCs from BRICS countries prefer to use their own personnel rather than local ones and are reluctant to share technological secrets.
In addition, host countries often face threats of losing national control over strategic assets and transferring them into the hands of state-owned companies from the BRICS countries. For this reason, the relationship of corporations (especially from China and Russia) with the authorities of host developed countries has become a serious problem, which is likely to worsen in the future.
In total, according to UNCTAD, in 2010, there were over 650 State-owned multinational corporations (approximately 1% of the total number of TNCs) in the world, accounting for 11% of global FDI.15 However, in China, they accounted for up to 85-90% of foreign assets, while in Russia-only 26%.
EACH COUNTRY HAS ITS OWN CHARACTERISTICS
The export of capital from Brazil began more than 30 years ago.
However, by the end of the 1990s, the country's share of accumulated global investment in the world remained insignificant , at about 1%. In the middle of the last decade, Brazilian companies began to increase their investment presence, primarily in the mining and metallurgical sector of foreign countries. During the period 2000-2008, the country's accumulated investment abroad more than tripled.
According to the results of 2010, the mining company Vale S. A., the oil refining company Petrobras and the metallurgical company Metalurgica Gerdau S. A. ranked 4th, 17th and 21st in the Top-100 list (leading non-financial companies from developing countries and countries with economies in transition by the size of foreign assets), respectively16.
Although the steady export of FDI from the Russian Federation actually manifested itself only in the late 1990s, the share of our country in global outbound investment increased sharply in 2000-2010 - from 0.3% to 3.9%. The prerequisites for expanding the export of capital from Russia in the form of direct investment were: the overall favorable macroeconomic situation and economic growth (at least until the fall of 2008), which contributed to the formation and recovery of Russian corporations. A number of legislative and administrative measures taken in the country, including the liberalization of currency regulation and investment exports, also played a role.
According to foreign experts, the export of FDI from Russia is characterized primarily by the desire to gain access to strategic resources and natural raw materials of foreign countries, and this expansion is often carried out with the participation of the Russian government.17 In general, this statement is true. Thus, by the end of 2010, according to our estimates, the industry structure of assets of Russian companies abroad (by value) was as follows: oil and gas and energy sector-over 50%, mining and metallurgical industry-about 30%, telecommunications-more than 10%, transportation - less than 5% and other sectors - mechanical engineering chemical, retail - approximately 5%.
As for the geographical distribution of Russian capital, contrary to the popular opinion that the investment business of domestic corporations abroad is dominated by foreign investors.-
While it is mainly concentrated in the CIS countries, statistics and expert assessments indicate a gradual decline in the role of this region in the placement of Russian foreign assets.
For example, the share of CIS countries in the export of FDI from Russia in 2007-2009 averaged about 7.5%. At the same time, the share of European countries in foreign assets of domestic companies exceeded 50%, and North American countries - 17%. At the same time, there was a tendency for domestic businesses to expand in other markets, including Africa (8%), Asia (4%), and Australia (1%).18 Although the regional distribution of assets may vary significantly by industry: Russian companies ' oil and gas assets are located primarily in the EU, while metallurgical enterprises are located in the United States and Canada.
At the same time, an analysis of the performance of foreign assets of Russian companies shows that it is generally low. In Russia, there is no well-thought-out state policy regarding the investment expansion of domestic businesses. Although we must admit that state support for Russian corporate structures in the implementation of their individual foreign projects has somewhat increased in recent years.
According to the size of available foreign assets, 9 private Russian companies were included in the Top-100 in 2010, and the largest of them - Lukoil, Severstal, Evraz and AFK Sistema-took the 10th, 27th, 31st and 48th places, respectively (see Table). 1), although in general they have worsened their positions compared to the pre-crisis period19.
Gazprom is not included in the UNCTAD rating due to the lack of reliable data on the group's foreign operations, although Russian experts estimate that the gas monopoly is second only to Lukoil in terms of foreign assets.20
By industry, this list is dominated by Russian commodity corporations (6 metallurgical holdings, two telecommunications and one oil and gas), while in other BRICS countries, the activities of the largest national companies are more diversified, and they are represented in the field of telecommunications, construction, consumer services, transport, etc.
On a global scale, the absolute performance indicators of Russian corporations abroad look rather modest. For example, the threshold for inclusion in the Top-100 list prepared by UNCTAD in 2010 was more than $30 billion. Therefore, according to the author's assessment, Lukoil and Gazprom could only be in the top half of the second hundred TNK21 by this indicator.
In addition, in terms of the integral indicator of transnationality (TNT), leading Russian companies (33.1%) are inferior to their competitors both from developing countries in general - 48.5%, and from BRICS countries - 39%. Moreover, the TNI of domestic corporations is mainly formed due to the high share of foreign sales (i.e., exports of goods), and not the value of foreign assets.
Indian companies began exporting capital abroad in the mid-1960s. Typically, these small-scale investments were directed to countries in South-East Asia and Africa with large Indian communities, which greatly facilitated the development of joint entrepreneurship in host States.22 Until the middle of the past decade, India's outward FDI was generally at a relatively low level compared to other BRICS countries, but when the Indian government decided to liberalize this sector of the economy, local companies immediately accelerated capital exports.23
After the lifting of restrictions on the size of assets acquired abroad (no more than $100 million) in 2005, the volume of foreign investment by Indian companies has grown significantly. They are currently allowed to invest up to 400% of their net worth abroad.
The main part of the Indian capital investment goes to USA, UK, France, Germany, Belgium, Russia and Brazil, where they are located mainly in the oil and gas sector, mining, metallurgy, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications and manufacturing chemical products.
One of the state institutions supporting foreign investment in the country is the Eximbank of India, which provides assistance to exporters of goods and services by providing loans, loan guarantees and insurance of export transactions in the investment sector.
Currently, India's foreign investment is focused on the service sector and in science-intensive sectors, primarily in software and information and communication technology (ICT). There has been a significant shift along the North-South axis towards investing capital from India in Western Europe, the United States, as well as in Australia and Japan. Thus, the share of Asian countries in Indian FDI accumulated abroad was 75% in 1995, but by 2008 it had fallen to 39%, and most of it was located in developed countries.
Among the 100 largest non-financial TNCs from developing countries in 2010, there were 7 companies from India representing various sectors of the economy: Tata Steel (ferrous metallurgy, 14th place), Tata Motors (automotive industry, 25th), ONGC (oil and gas industry, 30th), Hindalco (non-ferrous metallurgy, 33rd), Sulzon (energy, 67th), Tata Consultancy Services (consulting services, 69th) and Reliance Communications (telecommunications services, 72nd). The average TNI is over 50%, i.e. one of the highest among the BRICS countries, which indicates the steady export-oriented activity of these corporations in India.
The export of capital from China was sanctioned by the country's authorities in the early 1990s. Although China's share of global outbound investment was less than 0.1% in 2000, by 2008 it had already reached a significant level.-
Table 2
Representation of Chinese companies in the Top-100 list of leading non-financial TNCs from developing countries
Company |
Scope of activity |
Position in the rating |
Performance indicators abroad |
TNI (%) |
|||
By volume of foreign assets |
By TNI level |
Assets ($ million) |
Sales ($ million) |
Number of employees |
|||
CITIC Group |
Investment holding company |
2 |
87 |
43 814 |
10 878 |
25 285 |
23 |
China Ocean Shipping Company |
Transportation and storage of goods |
7 |
53 |
28 092 |
18 354 |
4 207 |
50 |
China National Petroleum Corporation |
Oil industry (exploration and production, refining, sales) |
23 |
100 |
11 594 |
4 732 |
29 877 |
3 |
Sinochem Group |
Oil industry (exploration and production, refining, sales) |
41 |
75 |
8 124 |
27 492 |
225 |
37 |
China National Offshore Oil Corp |
Oil industry (exploration and production, refining, sales) |
47 |
98 |
6 648 |
4 898 |
1 739 |
9 |
Lenovo Group Ltd |
Electrical and electronic equipment |
73 |
65 |
3 957 |
8 713 |
5 130 |
40 |
China Railway Construction Corporation |
Construction |
77 |
99 |
3 580 |
3 265 |
20 426 |
8 |
ZTE Corp |
Consumer products |
84 |
74 |
3 017 |
4 372 |
21 821 |
37 |
China Minmetals Corp |
Metallurgy and metalworking |
93 |
95 |
2 352 |
3 994 |
12 535 |
14 |
Source: UNCTAD. World Investment Report 2011 - www.unctad.org/wir
it reached 3%, and in 2010 it exceeded 5%. A characteristic feature of this process is the fact that Chinese companies usually have clear strategic directives from their government, and the share of state-owned companies in foreign assets is estimated at 80-90%. In 2009, China ranked first in the world in terms of financial capital placement (including bonds, stocks, and other securities) primarily in developed countries24.
Initially, the expansion of Chinese companies was aimed at access to raw materials in Africa, Central Asia and Latin America. However, a new trend is now emerging-a focus on acquiring financial structures and high-tech assets in developed countries.25 The implementation of these goals is facilitated by an effective system of state institutions supporting investment and entrepreneurial activities of Chinese companies abroad.
The volume of direct investment from China abroad in the period 2006-2010 amounted to $220 billion with an average annual growth of 30%, which, according to the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China, allowed the country to reach the 5th place in the world in this indicator. In general, accumulated foreign investments increased 10.7 times in 2000-2010. The main flow of Chinese FDI at this stage goes to Hong Kong, Australia, the Cayman Islands and the British Virgin Islands, as well as to Sweden, the United States, Canada, Russia and Brazil.26 Currently, China places its investments in 177 countries around the world; investment protection agreements have been signed with many of them, which increases the rating of China as a global investor.
China is certainly one of the global players in the international market for investment in innovative sectors of the economy.
Perhaps this is a result of China being among the countries with the most pronounced state support for the acquisition of foreign assets. To implement this policy, a special structure was formed in 2007 - the State Investment Company of China (GICC). Under its auspices, the assets of the country's largest state-owned banks were consolidated with their powerful financial resources, intended, in particular,for the purchase of foreign enterprises and high-tech assets in key sectors of the economy. 27
At this stage, there is no precedent for creating such a specialized institute in other countries of the world. In addition, the National Bank of China and Sinosur Insurance Company provide assistance to national investors.
Thus, it is possible to predict what exactly the computer will do.-
In the medium term, thanks to systematic state support measures, China's research institutes are consolidating a large package of promising technologies, including direct production facilities and modern management. In the future, the country may become the world's largest exporter of innovative products under the "made in China"brand28. The plans for the 12th five-year plan (2011-2015) provide for increasing the export of investment from China by 2 times-up to $100 billion per year. In the future, the country's leadership has set a task for Chinese companies to increase the export of national technologies and standards.
And this task is already being performed. Thus, in terms of the scale of foreign assets, CITIC Group financial holding took the 60th place in the first hundred largest corporations in the world in 2010. In addition, 9 Chinese companies were included in the list of the 100 largest non-financial companies from developing countries (see Table 2).
Taking into account the expansion of the BRICS format in 2011 due to the accession of the Republic of South Africa (RSA), it should be noted that the quantitative indicators of this state's participation in the cross-border export of FDI are currently the lowest in the group. At the same time, the export of capital to neighboring African countries was carried out by local companies even during the apartheid regime, including as a way to circumvent and minimize the consequences of international economic sanctions (embargoes)29.
Since the mid-1990s, South Africa has been selectively and gradually liberalizing its direct investment export policy. Prior to the complete abandonment of FDI export restrictions in October 2004, the country's authorities allowed limited investment primarily in African countries30 in order to strengthen South Africa's position as a regional development leader on the continent. 31
A new wave of FDI exports from South Africa at the beginning of the XXI century led to the fact that the volume of accumulated investment abroad in 2000-2007. It doubled to almost $67 billion (7th place among developing countries). First of all, this was due to the investments of leading state - owned companies-Eskom, PetroSA, Transnet, which are implementing major infrastructure projects on the African continent as part of the implementation of the New Partnership for Africa's Development international program.
A characteristic feature of South Africa is the dominance in the export of capital of private companies, which in recent years have been making diversified investments in various regions of the world with the support of the Development Bank of South Africa. Thus, in March 2011, the petrochemical company Sasol acquired an asset in Canada-shale gas deposits from the energy company Talisman Energy (the transaction value is over $1 billion) .32
At the same time, it should be noted that the country still has restrictions on carrying out particularly large transactions abroad - this requires special permission from the Reserve Bank of South Africa.
In 2010, the Top-100 list included 8 companies from South Africa representing various sectors of the economy (5 of them from the field of providing consumer services): MTN (telecommunications, 18th place), Sasol (petrochemicals, 46th), Naspers Ltd (consumer services, 55th) Steinhoff International Holdings (consumer products, 59th), Netcare Ltd (food products, 61st), Gold Fields (mining and non-ferrous metallurgy, 65th), Sappi Ltd (woodworking and papermaking, 66th) and Medi-Clinic Corp (medical services, 68th).1st place). The average TNI level of these companies exceeded 53% , the highest among the BRICS 33 countries.
THE CRISIS IS ENDING. WHAT'S NEXT?
Against the background of the global economic crisis, TNCs from developing countries and countries with economies in transition are called both victims of their own success and winners who have surpassed their competitors. The analysis of the situation shows that, although the global crisis and the subsequent recession had a mixed impact on the results of the activities of this group of TNCs, most of them passed the test.
However, it is still difficult to predict whether these corporations will be able to manage their foreign assets effectively enough in the post-crisis period. The crisis has exposed global imbalances in the global investment system, and it is not yet clear how developing countries will address emerging issues before a new wave of crisis events.
The new generation of TNCs faces many serious challenges on the global market. Although, according to international statistics, outbound FDI from China and India has been growing rapidly in recent years, and this increases their impact on the global investment process. These countries were only marginally affected by the economic crisis. That is why direct investment exports from China more than tripled in 2007-2010, while in India they remained at a stable level all this time.
However, Russia, as well as Brazil and South Africa, experienced a short-term decline in outward FDI during the crisis, which is partly due to their internal economic problems. At the same time, foreign experts believe that Brazil and Russia have accumulated experience in overcoming crisis phenomena and therefore will maintain good positions on the international "investment front" in 2012.
In the post-crisis world, there are major changes in the investment process and asset revaluation. Therefore, the optimal period for increasing the export of FDI for companies of the BRICS countries is now emerging. These corporations aim to expand their investment expansion more successfully on a global scale than not only other developing countries, but also developed countries.34
Table 3 summarizes the status and long-term potential of foreign direct investment (FDI) exports from countries
Table 3
Comparison of the scale of FDI exports and macroeconomic indicators in selected groups of countries in 2009
Country / group of countries |
FDI exports per capita (USD) |
FDI exports to fixed assets * (%) |
Accumulated foreign direct investment to GDP (%) |
Developed countries |
15.646 |
12,2 |
41,1 |
Developing countries |
521 |
4,5 |
16,5 |
Russia |
1.767 |
17,4 |
20,0 |
China |
174 |
2,0 |
4,9 |
Brazil |
814 |
-3,8 |
10,3 |
SOUTH AFRICA |
1.429 |
2,5 |
22,5 |
India |
64 |
3,6 |
6,3 |
* Gross fixed capital formation (as a percentage of the previous period).
Source: BIKI, March 10, 2009. www.unctad.org/fdistatistics
brix. We are talking about comparative macroeconomic indicators-FDI exports per capita, the level of accumulated FDI in relation to GDP, etc. Although these are rather conventional indicators, they still give an idea of the scale and dynamics of FDI exports from BRICS countries, as well as their comparison with similar indicators in developed and developing countries.
By the way, in all these indicators, Russia is noticeably ahead of other BRICS members and is closer to the level of developed countries.35 According to foreign experts, this advantage is explained by its dominant role in the post-Soviet space and massive FDI in this region. But, as noted above, this is not true.
Regionally, the list of Top-100 non-financial corporations in the developing world is dominated by TNCs from East and South-East Asia (58 companies), where the processes of capital export have been most developed. They are followed by Latin America (9) and the Persian Gulf (6). This rating is dominated by so-called first-generation TNCs ("Asian tigers") - Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea, which are represented by 47 companies. The BRICS countries, which in this context can be attributed to the second generation of TNCs, so far have only 36 corporations (see Table 4) .36 At the same time, it should be noted that the third generation of TNCs from developing countries of Latin America, the Persian Gulf and ASEAN (primarily Malaysia) is already being formed, but these are usually "national champions" representing the energy and raw materials sector.
In the post-crisis period, China, India and other BRICS countries have the opportunity to increase the scale of outward FDI, as they have only just begun to realize their potential in cross-border investment. A number of internal factors can contribute to the development of this process (accumulation of foreign exchange resources, the need to acquire strategic and high-tech assets, as well as the relatively low quality of human capital).
So, China has long been the absolute world leader in terms of gold and foreign exchange reserves (in mid - 2011-over $2.7 trillion). India is becoming a regional cluster for export-oriented sectors-manufacturing and knowledge-intensive services; therefore, Indian companies are striving to expand globally, which contributes to the growth of export revenues. A similar situation with regard to the accumulation of foreign currency holdings is developing for the economies of Russia and Brazil. As a result, the financial resources of BRICS companies can be transformed by the following factors:-
Table 4
Representation of national companies in the Top-100 list in 2010
|
A country |
Total |
The first fifty |
Second fifty |
1. |
Hong Kong |
18 |
8 |
10 |
2. |
China |
9 |
5 |
4 |
3. |
Taiwan |
13 |
4 |
9 |
4. |
Russia |
9 |
4 |
5 |
5. |
SOUTH AFRICA |
8 |
2 |
6 |
6. |
Singapore |
8 |
4 |
4 |
7. |
India |
7 |
4 |
3 |
8. |
Yu. Korea |
6 |
4 |
2 |
9. |
Malaysia |
4 |
3 |
1 |
10. |
Mexico |
4 |
2 |
2 |
11. |
Kuwait |
3 |
1 |
2 |
12. |
Brazil |
3 |
3 |
- |
13. |
United Arab Emirates |
2 |
2 |
- |
14. |
Turkey |
2 |
- |
2 |
Note: Another 4 countries (Argentina, Venezuela, Egypt, Qatar) are represented in this list by one company each.
Source: UNCTAD / / Erasmus University database.
In addition to foreign direct investment (FDI) exports, other forms of capital outflow and their effective placement abroad can also be used.
In the future, the BRICS countries will probably need not only raw materials and other material resources, but, above all, qualitatively new forms of production organization. In modern conditions, it is the quality of work and management that ensures the primacy in the global economic competition.
At the same time, it should be recognized that today, with the exception of a number of sectors of the economy in Russia (primarily in the extractive industries) and in India (in the information and computer sphere), the BRICS countries have limited resources of qualified personnel for innovative development. This is their common and complex problem - the lack of advanced know-how, modern management and qualified personnel. How they solve it largely depends on whether they will be able to make an innovative breakthrough. However, this applies not only to the BRICS countries, but also to all other emerging economies of the world.37
1 World Investment Report 2010. Investing in a Low-Carbon Economy. UNCTAD. Geneva, 2010, p. 5-7.
2 See: Pak S. Review of the study "Global expansion of Transnational corporations in Russia and China: adaptation in crisis conditions" / / MSU Skolkovo, Moscow, May 2009, p. 2.
3 See, for example: Corporate Giants and Economic Growth: the Case of China and Russia // Institute for the Development of Fast-Growing Markets (SIEMS), Moscow, August 2010, p. 2.
4 In 2010, according to the IMF, the BRICS countries accounted for 26% of the world's territory, 42% of its population, and 18% of global GDP, as well as 15.4% of global trade and 29.3% of investment. In recent years, these countries have contributed more than 50% to global economic growth - http://www.finmarket.ru/z/nws/pressinf.asp?id=1260388&rid=7
5 World Investment Report 2010.., p. 5-7; UNCTAD Global Investment Trends Monitor. Geneva. N 6, 27 April 2011, p. 7.
6 UNCTAD Global Investment Trends Monitor.., p. 4.
7 So, by the end of 2007, about 7 thousand Chinese companies had established more than 10 thousand foreign representative offices in 173 countries of the world. Russian corporate investment grew at an accelerated pace, and as early as 2005, Russia ranked second in terms of FDI exports among emerging economies. India has become the absolute leader in terms of the number of foreign assets acquired, including in developed countries, in recent years. According to international ratings, Brazil's largest companies had the best operational and financial performance among BRICS TNCs.
8 World Investment Report 2011. Non-Equity Modes of International Production and Development. UNCTAD. Geneva. 2011, p. 4.
9 Calculated by the author in: World Investment Report 2011.., p. 191-194.
10 Ibid., p. 200-202.
11 On average, during this period, Russian companies implemented 150 projects worth about $15 billion, South Africa - 45 projects and $3.5 billion, Brazil - 60 projects and $5.5 billion, China - 220 projects and about $25 billion, India - 250 projects and $20 billion, respectively).
12 In South Africa alone, private companies dominate the export of FDI, as the country's State-owned corporations are mainly involved in non-tradable sectors of the national economy or infrastructure projects in neighboring African countries. This situation has historically developed during the period of apartheid and international economic sanctions in order to effectively operate the "mobilization" economy of South Africa.
13 It should be noted that in the international rankings of the world's largest TNCs, the representation of companies from developing countries and countries with economies in transition is more significant. So, according to The Financial Times (FT500) rating, in 2010, 124 companies from this group of countries were among the top 500 global corporations, including 18 in the top hundred.
14 World Investment Report 2010.., p. 7.
15 Ibid., p. 28-29.
16 This index (TNT) is calculated as the average value of three indicators - the ratio of the value of foreign and total assets, foreign and total sales, the number of employees in branches abroad to the total number of employees in the corporation. See: Annex table 27. The Top 100 non-financial TNCs from developing and transition economies, ranked by foreign assets, 2010 / / UNCTAD / Erasmus University database.
Kalotay K. 17, Sulstarova A. Modeling Russian outward FDI // Journal of International Management. Phil., N 16, 2010, p. 131-142.
18 Investment from Russia stabilizes after the global crisis // M., IMEMO, 23 July 2011, p. 22.
19 Thus, in 2008 Lukoil and Evraz were ranked 8th and 23rd respectively in this rating. See: World Investment Report 2010.., p. 18-19.
20 According to IMEMO RAS calculations, in 2009 Lukoil's foreign assets totaled $28 billion, Gazprom's $ 19.4 billion, Evraz's $10.4 billion, and Severstal's $9.9 billion; Investment from Russia stabilizes after the global crisis.., p. 2.
21 World Investment Report 2010.., p. 210-212.
22 See: Pakhomov AL. Business activity of Indian monopolies in the ASEAN countries / / South-East Asia at the turn of the 70-80-ies: trends and prospects for development. Moscow, GRVL "Nauka", 1984, pp. 42-51.
23 International: BRIC's outward FDI is the side // Oxford Analitica. March 1, 2011, p. 1-3.
24 China, June 2011, p. 5.
25 Foreign Direct Investments by Emerging Market Multinational Enterprises. The Impact of the Financial Crisis and Recession and Challenges Ahead // Karl P.Sauvant, Wolfgang A. Maschek and Geraldine McAllister. OECD Forum on International Investment. P., 7-8 December 2009, p. 9-10.
26 Xinhua News Agency, January 26, 2011
27 The main statutory objectives of the GICC are to invest China's foreign exchange reserves abroad in highly liquid securities with a fixed stable income flow with minimal risks, as well as to acquire foreign high-tech (hitech) companies - http://www.ved.gov.ru/exportcountries/pages/market_access/countries/90
28 In 2010, China ranked second in the world after the United States in terms of investment in scientific research ($153.7 billion), surpassing Japan in this indicator / / RBC-daily, January 27, 2011.
29 See: Artyukhin A., Pakhomov A. The economic situation of South Africa and its trade and economic relations with African countries / / BIKI, November 28, 1989.
30 The Southern African Development Community (SADC) was established in 1980 and currently unites 13 States in the region. The SADC Action Program has been adopted, which includes joint economic and social projects, steps are being taken to create a favorable investment climate within the SADC, unify the economic and legal space, and create a Free trade zone.
31 http://sa.polpred.com/upload/pdf/YuAR.pdf?PHPSESSID=pvutpdt4duf6idkhu?mp4m2cr5; БИКИ, 11 ноября 2006 г.
32 In addition, Sasol is considering the possibility of building the first plant in North America using its own unique technology for processing natural gas into liquid fuels in order to expand the markets for fuel produced by Sasol and Talisman / / dealReporter/Mergermarket, 09.03.2011.
33 UNCTAD Country fact sheet: South Africa-2011; www.unctad.org/fdistatistics
34 International: BRIC's outward.., p. 2.
35 The value of another indicator that characterizes the ratio of accumulated FDI abroad to GDP in 2010. It was 5.1% in China, 5.8% in India, 8.8% in Brazil, 22.5% in South Africa, and reached a record level of 29.4% in Russia (compared to 12.3% in 2008).
36 However, it should be emphasized that in terms of the number of companies in the top fifty, the BRICS countries (18) are practically not inferior to the "Asian tigers" (20), which indicates the accelerated growth of the largest corporations from this group.
37 International: BRIC's outward.., p. 3.
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