Libmonster ID: UK-1245
Author(s) of the publication: I. O. ABRAMOVA

I. O. ABRAMOVA

Candidate of Economic Sciences

Keywordsdeveloping countriespopulation growthtransformation of the world economydemographic component of economic growthurbanizationinternational migration

At the present stage of transformation of the world economy, the role of the demographic factor is constantly increasing. At the same time, the development of humanity will largely depend on the quantitative and qualitative population growth in developing countries.

The unprecedented acceleration of population growth in the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America in the 1950s and 60s of the last century caused a shift in the global proportions of the distribution of human resources towards countries with a relatively low level of socio-economic development. The discrepancy between the demographic and economic components of world development is fraught with aggravation of a number of problems and serves as a prerequisite for the destruction of the old and the formation of a new model of world development.

In 1968, the American biologist Paul R. Ehrlich first announced a "population bomb", predicting accelerated population growth in developing countries, which will lag behind the production of food and other resources necessary for human life. 1 This theory, unlike the works of Malthus*, did not derive mathematical formulas for the growth of food production and the number of inhabitants in accordance with arithmetic and geometric progressions, but gave a gloomy forecast of the onset of world hunger by the end of the 1970s and the beginning of the 1980s. This forecast has not been realized, as well as due to the decline in the birth rate in developing countries.

DEMOGRAPHIC EXPLOSION: ORIGINS AND CONSEQUENCES

In the twentieth century, demographic changes affected almost all countries of the world, and their rate was much higher than in previous centuries. Significant reductions in mortality in Asian and African countries occurred partly before, but mostly after, the end of World War II, although life expectancy was still quite low and did not exceed 24 years at the beginning of the twentieth century in India and in 1929-1931 in China2. At the same time, the level of fertility in Japan did not decrease to less than 5 children per woman until the end of the 1930s, in Asia as a whole, this indicator began to decline in the 1950s and 1960s, and in African states-only at the end of the XX century, and even then not in all of them. As a result of the decline in the death rate and the relatively high birth rate after the Second World War, the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America entered the era of "demographic explosion": the growth rate of their population reached 2 - 3% annually, and the age structure of the population rapidly changed towards an increase in the number of young people.

The demographic explosion in Asia and Africa has significantly affected the global distribution of the population by country and region.

Since the middle of the 20th century, the trend towards stagnation of demographic growth has been dominating in developed countries, while developing countries, as a result of a decrease in the death rate and maintaining high birth rates, have fallen into the abyss of a "demographic explosion". Population growth rates in Asia, Africa and Latin America over the past 50 years have been stable at the level of 2 - 2.5% per year, and in some countries of the world,


The study was partially supported by the Russian Foundation for Scientific Research in the framework of the project "Russia in a Polycentric World", project No. 11-32-02001a.

* Thomas Malthus-English clergyman and academic, demographer and economist, author of the theory that uncontrolled population growth should lead to famine on earth (editor's note).

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Table 1

Population of major regions of the world (1820-2050)

Year

Western Europe

USA, Australia, New Zealand

Southern Europe

Eastern Europe, including Russia

Latin America

Asia and Oceania

Africa

The whole world

Population (in thousands)

1820

103005

11255

33644

89821

20307

736836

73026

1067894

1870

144572

45708

39981

140689

37905

768472

82815

1260142

1900

178595

86396

44543

208485

63919

887430

95281

1564649

1950

238957

178094

68470

286116

162463

1357096

223015

2514211

2000

307577

336903

132181

393418

517946

3528759

737039

5953823

2050

281243

468411

154765

332374

804023

5220026

1782718

9043560

Population distribution by world region (%)

1820

9,6

1,1

3,2

8,4

1,9

69,0

6,8

100

1870

11,5

3,6

3,2

11,2

3,0

61,0

6,5

100

1900

11,4

5,5

2,8

13,3

4,1

56,7

6,2

100

1950

9,5

7,0

2,7

11,4

6,5

54,0

8,9

100

2000

5,2

5,7

2,2

6,6

8,7

59,3

12,3

100

2050

3,1

5,2

1,7

3,7

8,9

57,7

19,7

100

Population growth rate by world region (%)

1820 - 1870

0,68

2,80

0,35

0,90

1,25

0,08

0,25

0,33

1870 - 1900

0,70

2,12

0,36

1,31

1,74

0,48

0,47

0,72

1900 - 1950

0,58

1,42

0,86

0,63

1,87

0,85

1,70

0,95

1950 - 2000

0,50

1,30

1,32

0,64

2,32

1,91

2,39

1,73

2000 - 2050

-0,18

0,66

0,32

-0,34

0,88

0,78

1,77

0,84



Source: World Population Prospects, the 2009 Revision. New York: UN. 2009; A. Maddison. The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Paris: OECD, 2001. P. 34 - 35.

cases (for example, on the African continent) reached and exceeded 3%, while in developed countries they at best reached 1%3.

Thus, over the past 50 years, the number of residents of the "peripheral countries" of the world community - states that significantly lag behind developed countries in terms of their socio-economic indicators-has increased most rapidly.

In 2000, the share of developed countries in the world's population fell to 19.7%, which was less than in 1820. The share of Asian countries also decreased by about 10 percentage points over the same period, from 69% to 59.3%, while the share of Latin American countries in the world's population increased more than 4 - fold, from 1.9% to 8.7%. In Africa, this figure rose from 6.8% in 1820 to 12.4% in 2000.

XXI CENTURY: CHANGING THE DEMOGRAPHIC PICTURE OF THE WORLD

In the twenty-first century, the demographic picture of the world will be subject to even more serious transformations. The UN estimates that the world's population reached 6.8 billion in 2009. according to the average version of forecasts, it will amount to 7 billion people. people in 2012, 8 billion - in 2025 and 9 billion rubles. - in 2045, by 2050, the growth of the world's population will almost stop and the number of inhabitants of the planet will stabilize at the level of 9 - 9.2 billion. In fact, the global population growth rate has already peaked between 1965 and 1970, when it was 2% per year, after which the rate has consistently declined.

In 2005-2010, this rate is estimated to be 1.17% per year, and it is expected that in 2045-2050. they will not exceed 0.36%4. At the same time, if the global climate catastrophe does not occur and the world economy manages to recover from the financial and economic crisis of 2007-2010, the average annual growth of world GDP in the next 40 years is expected to be 2-3%, which is significantly higher than the growth of the world population over the same period.

At the same time, economic security in the twenty-first century will be linked not so much to the issue of economic security.,

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Table 2

Population size in selected years (broken down by major regions, average and constant projected fertility rates)

Main region

Population (in millions)

1950

1990

2009

2050

Average value

Constant indicator

Difference

The whole world

2535

5295

6828

9191

11858

2666

Developed countries

814

1149

1229

1245

1218

-27

Developing countries

1723

4146

5599

7946

10639

2693

Least developed countries

200

526

843

1742

2794

1052

Other developing countries

1523

3620

4756

6204

7845

1641

Africa

224

637

1009

1998

3251

1253

Asia

1411

3181

4121

5266

6525

1259

Europe

548

721

731

664

626

-38

Latin America and the Caribbean

168

444

587

769

939

170

North America

172

284

345

445

460

15

Oceania

13

27

35

49

57

8



Source: World Population Prospects: The 2009 Revision.

how many people inhabit the Earth, i.e. with the quantitative aspect of demographic growth, how many with the problems of population distribution by country and region, as well as aging and population decline in some states with the formation of a young age structure and accelerated growth in the number of inhabitants in others. So, by 2050, the share of the population of developed countries in the global population is expected to decrease to 14%, and the number of people over 60 in these countries will increase significantly, which, in turn, will require an influx of a significant number of young able-bodied workers from outside. At the same time, global population growth will mainly come from the least developed countries, where the proportion of young people under 25 exceeds 50%, but there is a lack of financial resources, jobs and quality education.

For several decades, developed countries have been characterized by low birth rates, as a result, population reproduction is not ensured, which leads to a reduction in the number of indigenous residents of these States. However, thanks to the influx of migrants, the population of Western countries will be able to stabilize. Taking into account the projected scale of net migration, which averages 2.3 million migrants per year, the population of developed countries will increase slightly - from 1.23 billion. people in 2009 to 1.26 billion in 2031, and then stabilizes to somewhere around 1.25 billion by 2050.

The opposite trend is observed in developing countries, where population growth rates are quite high due to the fact that the average level of fertility is still significantly higher than that required to ensure simple reproduction of the population. Their population is projected to increase by 2.3 billion between 2009 and 2050. people - from 5.6 to 7.9 billion (see Table 2). Under favorable circumstances, the population of the least developed countries is expected to double to 1.7 billion in 2050. human. These projections are based on the assumption that fertility rates will continue to decline in developing countries in general, and especially in the least developed countries, where overall fertility rates are expected to decline from about 4.6 children per woman in 2005-2010 to 2.5 children by 2045-2050. However, if fertility rates continue to decline, the population of the least developed countries could reach 2.8 billion in 2050. human. In other words, an increasing proportion of the world's population will live in countries experiencing chronic scarcity of all types of resources, which is fraught with serious socio-economic and political consequences for the whole world. In large and densely populated developing countries such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan, population growth is expected to reach 828 million people between 2009 and 2050, and their total population will increase from 2 billion in 2009 to 2.8 billion in 2050. If fertility rates in these countries had remained at the level of 2000-2005, their population would have reached 3.9 billion in 2050. human. With fertility rates unchanged, 10.6 billion women would live in developing countries by 2050. people, which is by 2.7 billion. more than otsa-

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nighttime population that would have been recorded under the average forecast variant (7.9 billion people). person). Therefore, if fertility rates remain constant, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan will account for 70% of the projected population growth in less developed regions.

Between 2005 and 2010, the world's population grew by an average of 78 million people per year, of which 75 million were living in the United States. They were found in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. By 2045-2050, their population is projected to increase by 33 million people per year, while in most developed regions this figure will decrease to about 1.3 million people per year. In 2005-2010, 26% of total population growth in developing countries was accounted for by the least developed countries, and their share in this growth is expected to exceed 60% by 2045-2050.

In fact, the" demographic bomb " mentioned by P. Ehrlich may still explode, but the consequences of this explosion will differ slightly from his forecasts.

It is quite remarkable that the dramatic population growth that has characterized developing countries since the Second World War is not in itself a unique historical phenomenon.

A similar situation with accelerated population growth was observed in Europe in the 19th and early 20th centuries. In 1800, only 20% of the world's population lived in Europe. And by 1914, the number of inhabitants of European countries increased by 4 times and exceeded the Chinese population at that time. At the same time, the share of residents of Europe, the USA and Canada in the world population reached 33% by the beginning of the First World War5. In contrast to developing countries, the accelerated population growth in Western countries was accompanied by an expansion of the quantitative scale of the labor market, primarily in the cities caused by the industrial revolution.

However, in the 1920s and especially after the Second World War, the population of Asian, African and Latin American countries began to grow at an accelerated pace, which was due both to the use of medical achievements in developed countries, which made it possible to significantly reduce mortality in these regions, and to the preservation of traditional economic mechanisms that support a high birth rate. By 2005, the share of the population of Europe, the United States and Canada had already fallen to 16%, and by 2050, according to average forecasts, this figure will not exceed 12%.

SHIFTING CENTERS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

The share of global GDP produced in Europe, the United States and Canada fell to 56% in 2009 and is likely to continue to decline in the future. According to the forecasts of the American researcher A. Madison, the GDP of Europe, the United States and Canada will double by 2050, while the GDP of the rest of the world will increase by 5 times. Thus, the share of the EU, USA and Canada in world GDP will be less than 30% - less than in 1820.6 It should be noted that A. Madison wrote his forecast in 2003. Today, the global financial and economic crisis has become a catalyst for structural changes in the world. In the coming years, the role of developing economies, primarily China, India and Brazil, will increase, while the role of the European and North American economies may decline even faster.

The structure of global consumption will change in the coming decades. By 2050, the majority of consumers of goods such as automobiles, home appliances and electronics will live in developing countries. Even today, the pace of the global economy's recovery from the crisis is largely determined by demand in the domestic market of China, and not the United States, as it was 10 years ago. The World Bank predicts that the number of middle-class people in developing countries will reach 1.2 billion by 2030. It will be more than the entire population of Europe, Japan, and the United States combined. Thus, the locomotive of the global economy will not be traditional, but new centers of power emerging in Asia, Africa and Latin America, primarily China, India, South Korea, Brazil, Indonesia, Chile, Mexico and Turkey.

One of the reasons for the declining economic dynamics of developed countries in the coming decades remains the aging of their population. Along with Europe, the United States, Canada, and Japan, this trend has also affected new industrial and some developing countries in recent years, including China and South Korea.

The share of the population over 60 reaches 15-22% in the EU, USA and Canada, 30% in Japan, and 12-15% in South Korea and China. By 2050, the proportion of older people (60+) in the United States, Canada, Europe, and China combined will exceed at least one-third of the population, while Japan and South Korea will account for 40%. Thus, the share of dependents per employee in the above-mentioned States will increase dramatically.

Even today, people who were born in Western countries during the so-called "baby boom" of 1945-1965 have started to retire. It is obvious that in the coming decades, developed and some newly industrialized countries will experience a shortage of people of working age, while the rate of decline in the 15-59 age group will be significantly higher than the rate of decline in the entire population. A prime example is South Korea*. By 2050. the population of this country will decrease by 9% (from 48.3 to 44.1 million people), and the number of people of working age - by 36% (from 32.9


* Since 2004, South Korea has been classified as a "developed economy" by the IMF, while remaining a developing country by UNCTAD.

page 26

up to 21.1 million). At the same time, the number of elderly people in South Korea will increase by 150% (from 7.3 to 18 million people). In other words, the number of people of working age and retirement age is almost equal.

The situation looks worst in European countries. Europe will lose 24% of its working-age population (about 120 million people) by 2050, while the proportion of people over 60 will reach 47%. In the United States, where the fertility rate is higher (mainly due to immigrants) than in Europe, the share of the working-age population will grow by 15% from 2010 to 2050, but this increase will be 4 times less than in the previous 60 years: from 1950 to 2010. it was 62%. At the same time, the group of people of retirement age in the United States will double by 20507.

All this will have a very negative impact on economic growth, health care and military security in developed countries. The factors that stimulated the economic growth of industrial countries in the second half of the twentieth century - increased labor productivity due to improved quality of education, the involvement of women in the labor process, and the introduction of innovations and new technologies - will significantly weaken in the coming decades, since all of them are mainly formed at the expense of the young population.

If before 2005 the labor force growth in developed countries was 0.5-1%, and the output per worker increased by 1.7% per year, then the annual economic growth was 2.2 - 2.7%. Under current conditions, in countries where the growth of the working - age population remains negative and averages 0.2% (Germany, Hungary, Japan, Russia and the Baltic States), with the same productivity per worker, which, as shown above, is unlikely to increase sharply, the economic growth rate will not exceed 1.5% per year. In other countries (Austria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Greece and Italy), where the labor force will increase slightly, but still (on average, by 0.2% per year), economic growth will be approximately 1.9%.

At the same time, government spending on pensions and medical care will increase dramatically. Meanwhile, an increase in the proportion of older people working may open up new opportunities for economic growth. But even if the retirement age limit is raised to 70, workers in this age category will still need expensive medical care on a large scale to maintain their work activity. This means that a significant portion of developed countries ' budgets will be spent on medical bills and pensions, rather than on innovation and education. In other words, increasing the life expectancy of the population is associated with an increase in inefficient spending.

A very different picture is observed in Africa, Latin America, South Asia and the Middle East. Today, 9 out of 10 children under the age of 15 live in developing countries. The highest birth rate is observed in the poorest countries of the world. The World Bank predicts that 70% of the world's population growth from 2010 to 2050 will come from 24 low-and lower-middle - income countries* (less than $3,855 at PPP in 2008) .8 However, most of these countries are not able to provide the necessary number of jobs to the young, fast-growing population. Hence the unprecedented growth of international labor migration from South to North and from East to West. Low-and medium-skilled workers in industrial enterprises, agricultural workers, drivers, construction workers, nursing staff, and service workers in developed countries are mostly migrants.

Globalization has greatly facilitated the flow of labor between countries and continents in accordance with supply and demand in the global market. Many migrants come from Muslim countries with high birth rates and relatively low per capita incomes. In 1950, 242 million people lived in Egypt, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Pakistan and Turkey; in 2009, the total population of these Muslim countries reached almost 900 million. By 2050, their population will increase by another 475 million people, while the Christian population of the six most developed countries in Europe and America will increase by only 44 million, and even this increase will be mainly due to migrants. Today, out of 48 countries with an average annual population growth rate of 2%, more than half (28 countries) - states with a share of the Islamic population exceeding 33%9.

That is why one of the priorities of the foreign policy of developed countries should be to improve relations with Muslim states, which is quite difficult, since the majority of their inhabitants see the West as an enemy and an opponent of their life attitudes. In 2006, a survey of public opinion in Muslim countries showed that more than 50% of adherents of Islam consider relations between their countries and the West to be bad and blame Western politicians for this state of affairs. However, in a number of European countries, the Muslim population already exceeds 5% (in France 5-10%)of all inhabitants, and by 2050 this figure will at least double.

ACCELERATED URBANIZATION AND ITS SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES

The modern period in the history of mankind is also characterized by accelerated urbanization.


* Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Burma, Cameroon, DRC, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, India, Iraq, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Senegal, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Viet Nam, Yemen, Zambia.

page 27

The year 2010 was a turning point in history, and today more than 50% of the world's population lives in cities. In 1950, the share of urban dwellers in the global population did not exceed 30%, and by 2050, according to UN forecasts, this figure will reach 70%11. Cities are growing especially fast in poor countries in Asia and Africa, where the opportunities for extensive labor force growth in the agricultural sector are exhausted, which in turn leads to increased rural-urban migration.

Today, most of the giant cities such as Mumbai (20.1 million people), Greater Cairo (20 million), Mexico City (19.5 million), Delhi (17 million), Shanghai (15.8 million), Calcutta (15.6 million), Karachi (13.1 million), Manila (11.7 million), Lagos (10.6 million), Jakarta (9.7 million), located in low-income countries. Most of these countries have several cities with a population of more than 1 million people: Pakistan-8, Mexico-12, India-37, China-more than 100.

The process of urbanization has also accelerated significantly on the African continent. The United Nations predicts that the urban population in Africa will increase from 35% (over 300 million people) in 2005 to 67% (1 billion) in 2050. China, where urban dwellers now make up 40% of the population, will reach 73% urbanisation by 2050, and India, at its current rate of 30%.the share of the urban population is 55%. The world's entire urban population will increase by 3 billion by 2050. person 12.

Accelerated urbanization in developing countries is now a destabilizing factor for global development. This is due to the fact that in developing countries, where cities are growing rapidly, per capita incomes are significantly lower than in developed countries during a period of accelerated urban growth. The United States, for example, achieved 65% urbanisation only in 1950, when the average per capita income in this country exceeded $13,000 (in 2005 prices). By comparison, countries such as Nigeria, Pakistan and the Philippines, where more than 60% of the population lives in cities, have a per capita income of $1,800 - 4000 (in 2005 prices) 13.

Modern international terrorism is to some extent a product of accelerated urbanization in developing countries, where large agglomerations provide terrorists with both rich social material for recruitment (young people with unstable economic conditions and growing needs) and technical opportunities for their activities (the Internet, the concentration of all types of resources in a small area).

DEMOGRAPHIC TRAP: IS THERE A WAY OUT?

When talking about a "population bomb" and describing its possible consequences, you need to think about preventing an explosion. In the 1970s and 1980s of the last century, the catastrophe associated with the demographic revolution did not occur for three main reasons. The technological and green revolutions have dramatically improved agricultural efficiency; the unprecedented growth of international trade has enabled developing countries to purchase essential equipment, seeds,and fertilizers on the global market with export revenues; and a number of Countries ' targeted birth control policies have reduced population growth.

Today, to prevent a "demographic explosion", other levers of influence are needed, since modern problems in the field of population are associated not so much with its quantitative growth, but with changes in its age structure and its placement.

During the Cold War, the world was divided into the so-called "First World", which included the industrialized countries of the West, the "Second World", which included the socialist states, and the "Third World", which included developing countries. The political strategies of that time were reduced to the confrontation of the "First" and "Second" worlds, as well as to the struggle between them for the "Third World". After the end of the Cold War, this division ceased to be relevant, the United States turned into a world superpower, which today began to give up its positions under the pressure of new supergiants - the EU, China, and India.

If the current division of the world took into account the demographic factor, we would be able to distinguish:

The "First World", which would include the aging countries of the West and some countries of the Asia-Pacific region, including Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, as well as, after 2030, and China, whose population, after the active implementation of the "One family - one child" policy, will have aged by then;

A "second world" with fast-growing and economically dynamic countries with an optimal proportion of young and older people (Brazil, Iran, Mexico, Thailand, Vietnam, India, Turkey, South Africa and China until 2030), and

A "third World", which would include countries with accelerated population growth, a predominance of young people in the age structure, with high rates of urbanization, low living standards and weak governments (most African states and a number of Asian States).

In order to prevent instability and the terrorist threat that will significantly increase during the accelerated urbanization of the new "Third World", the aging States of the" First World "need effective cooperation with the new centers of power of the" Second World", whose role will increasingly increase in the twenty-first century. Not only because they will stimulate the growth of the global economy and act as the main consumers of new technologies, but also because, due to their geographical location, cultural and cultural characteristics, they will also be able to attract new technologies.

page 28

They will play a central role in ensuring international security and cooperation between States.

Due to the new configuration of forces in the world, the structure of international institutions should change significantly. Already, as a result of the global economic crisis, which has accelerated the transformation of the global economy, the Group of Eight is giving way to the G20, which includes China, India, South Korea, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey and South Africa - countries whose economic power is constantly growing. It is obvious that all modern institutions that ignore the most rapidly and dynamically developing economies are doomed to gradual extinction. In this sense, the question of accepting the 75-million-strong Turkey into the EU is no longer completely rejected by a number of European politicians.

First World countries can take certain steps to mitigate the unfavorable demographic situation. First, they should encourage their own populations to have a higher birth rate (France and Sweden have made some progress in this direction, improving the social and financial situation of large families and medical care for children). But there is still no consensus among either politicians or demographers on the issue of increasing female fertility. It is only obvious that the influx of immigrants contributes to the growth of the birth rate. Migration benefits both recipient countries, which receive additional workers, and donor countries, where social stability and financial well-being increase as a result of population migration (largely due to money transfers from abroad). In addition, migrants who have returned from abroad are carriers of new knowledge and skills acquired in developed countries.

Another area of migration that we believe should be encouraged in developed countries is the migration of pensioners to countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. The OECD estimates that in 2009, more than 1 million Europeans of retirement age lived in developing countries while still retaining EU citizenship.14 Western experts believe that this trend will continue to grow, which is due to such factors as better climatic conditions, cheap living, as well as the favorable attitude of local authorities to rich immigrants from developed countries. Pensioners from the EU and the US travel mainly to Latin American countries (Mexico, Brazil, Argentina), Southeast Asian countries, South Africa, and until recently - to North African countries (Tunisia, Morocco). Such migration, on the one hand, could ease the burden on the labor market of developed countries, since caring for pensioners requires significant labor costs, and on the other, it could create additional jobs in developing countries and provide additional financial resources to their economies at the expense of Western pensioners. Even today, many Western pensioners are being treated in developing countries to save money (so-called medical tourism to India, Singapore and Thailand). In 2008, there were 750,000 Americans treated in developing countries alone. 15 Even today, the flow of wealthy retirees to developing countries is to some extent curbing the outflow of medical personnel from the East and South to Europe and America.

* * *

Thus, the current situation in the world is characterized by the growth of the world's population and labor resources almost entirely at the expense of developing countries. At the same time, forecasts regarding the economic role of a number of countries on the world's periphery in the first half of this century are based on a positive correlation between the rapid growth of their populations and the growth rates of their economies. In other words, it is quite possible that the countries with the largest population will become the economic leaders of the XXI century.

Long-term trends in the impact of large emerging economies on the world economy and the formation of appropriate models of global development should be studied to understand the full extent of changes. Especially significant is the study of projections of future global demographic processes in comparison with projected trends in physical capital accumulation and labor productivity growth. The study of these issues allows us to predict to a certain extent the main directions of the evolution of a new, just emerging, model of world economic development.


Ehrlich Paul R. 1 The Population Bomb. Wash., 1968.

2 Ibid. P. 30.

3 Population Growth and Economic Development. N.Y.: U.N. Population fund. 1993 - www.unfpa.org/modules/briefkit/English/ch05.html

4 World Population Prospects. UN, 2008.

5 www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65735

6 Ibid. P. 123.

7 www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65735

8 www.worldbank.org/population/database/67541

9 www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65735

10 http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/61919/stГ©phanie-giry/france-and-its-muslims

11 www.un.org/development/sustainable/settlements.html

12 www.unchs.org/pmss/listltemDetails.aspx?pubIicationID=2880

13 www.unhabitat.org/cdrom/docs/WUF2.pdf

14 http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/15/36/45522500.pdf

15 www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65735


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I. O. ABRAMOVA, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD ECONOMY OF THE 21ST CENTURY: NEW DEMOGRAPHIC DETERMINANTS // London: British Digital Library (ELIBRARY.ORG.UK). Updated: 17.08.2023. URL: https://elibrary.org.uk/m/articles/view/DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES-IN-THE-WORLD-ECONOMY-OF-THE-21ST-CENTURY-NEW-DEMOGRAPHIC-DETERMINANTS (date of access: 22.05.2024).

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Jack Dowly
London, United Kingdom
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17.08.2023 (278 days ago)
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