The article provides a forecast for the development of energy in the Eastern countries, which is based on the calculation of the countries ' primary energy needs, since it depends on the volume of purchased energy resources and the associated amounts of funds flowing into the energy sector. This calculation was based on the methodology of the International Energy Agency, which is based on a comparison of two main predictive indicators - the energy intensity of GDP and primary energy consumption per capita. Based on the calculations made, it was concluded that the energy sector of the East will remain carbon-based in the foreseeable future; the region, while remaining the leading producer of primary energy, will become its largest consumer; the dependence of both net importers and net exporters on foreign markets will increase; to ensure the expected macroeconomic indicators, the energy sector of most Eastern countries will need technological re-equipment, which will require attracting large investments.

Keywords: energy intensity of GDP, energy production per capita, energy demand, energy supply, investment in energy, final energy consumption, energy balance.

ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FORECAST FOR THE ASIAN AND AFRICAN NATIONS TO 2050

This article attempts to forecast energy development in the East - the main driving force of the world economy in the immediate future. The forecast is based on an estimate of the Eastern countries primary energy needs, which determine the volume of energy resources to be purchased and the amount of funds to be channeled into the energy sector. Methods used by the author were drawn up by the International Energy Agency on the basis of comparison between two principal indicators - energy intensity of the GDP and per capita energy consumption. A result of these calculations are the following conclusions: energy in the East will retain its carbon-based nature in the near future; the region, remaining the leading producer of primary energy, will turn into its major consumer; both net exporters and net importers will be more dependent on external markets; technological modernization of energy sector in most Eastern countries will demand huge investments.

Keywords: TPES/GDP, TPES/populalion, energy demand, energy supply, energy investment, final energy consumption, energy balance.

Mikhail Glebovich BORISOV, PhD in Economics, Senior Researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, mg.borisov@yandex.ru

Mikhail BORISOV, PhD (in Economy), Institute of Oriental Studies, RAS, Senior Researcher, mg.borisov@yandex.ru.

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The rapid growth of the economy in many regions of the East causes interest in its energy supply. The transformation of a number of Eastern countries into a" world factory " entails major changes in both the global and national energy sectors. A number of studies by reputable international organizations (International Energy Agency, IEA), international energy corporations (BP, Shell, Exxon Mobil), and research institutions (INEI RAS) are devoted to promising changes in the global energy sector. The author of this article made an attempt to forecast the development of the energy sector in the East - the main driving force of the world economy in the near future.

The calculation of the primary energy demand is key in this forecast, as it is the key factor that determines the volume of purchased energy resources and the associated volume of financial resources flowing into the energy sector and forming investment resources. The demand for primary energy is determined by the dynamics of population and economy. The main specific indicators for calculations are energy consumption per capita and energy consumption per unit of GDP. The source data is contained in international energy statistics and national accounts. The methodological basis for the calculations is the so-called World Energy Projection System, in which the dynamics of specific indicators are assumed to be linear when determining trends in regional and global primary energy consumption (if there is a system of correlation coefficients). In addition, a retrospective analysis revealed extrapolated trends in some indicators, on the basis of which many calculations were based. Thus, the energy intensity of GDP (the ratio of primary energy consumed to GDP) for many years, the world as a whole and for all groups of economies has been declining by 1-2% per year, electricity consumption growth always refers to GDP growth as 1.1-1.3, energy investment in different groups of economies varies within 2-10% of GDP, primary energy consumption in different groups of countries is contained in a narrow (and constantly narrowing) in the corridor.

An analysis of the current state of technological developments in the field of alternative energy sources leads to the conclusion that in the foreseeable future, the global energy sector will remain predominantly carbon-based. This is also confirmed by the successful technological breakthrough in the development of previously undeveloped hydrocarbon sources. Fossil fuels will continue to dominate primary energy sources, albeit with a downward trend in their share. By 2050, it will account for 79% of the world's primary energy consumption, up from 87% in 2010. The share of new renewable energy sources will increase and will reach 9% by 2050, while nuclear energy and hydropower will retain their shares of 5-6% (calculated from: [BP Statistical..., 2013, p. 35-56; BP..., 2015, p. 15]).

Total global energy consumption will increase by 72% between 2010 and 2050. Developing countries in Asia and North Africa will account for 81% of the increase in global energy consumption, with little or no growth in North America, Western Europe, the CIS and developed Asia. By 2050, China, India, and the Middle East will account for 60% of the world's primary energy consumption (calculated from [BP Statistical..., 2013, p. 40-43]).

The East, as an extremely economically heterogeneous region, shows a significant spread of forecast indicators, but promising trends even in backward and stagnant countries correspond to global trends. 46% of the increase in demand for primary energy carriers in the East will fall on East Asia, 24% - on the Middle East, 15% - on South Asia, 9% - on South-East Asia, 6% - on Central Asia and Transcaucasia (calculated from: [Energy Balances..., 2012, p. 11.28, 11.45-11.52]).

Eastern regions, especially the hydrocarbon-rich Middle East, which lack large fossil fuel reserves adequate to the scale of their economies, are not affected by the impact of climate change.-

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Table 1

Share of Eastern regions in total growth of primary energy consumption in 2010-2050 (%)

Region

Primary energy source

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear power

Hydroelectric power industry

Renewable energy sources*

South Asia

23.2

7.9

22.5

2.8

2.4

14.7

East Asia

40.7

43.5

56.2

92.9

88.3

59.7

Southeast Asia

19.1

16.9

19.4

10.9

8.3

3.4

Developed Asian countries

6.8

8.1

0

-14.2

0

21.7

Middle East

21.1

20.7

0

0

0

0.3

Centre. Asia and Transcaucasia

2.7

3.2

1.9

0

0

0.2

Calculated from: [Energy Balances..., 2012, p. 11.28-11.52; Energy Outlook for Asia..., 2013, p. 24].

RES - renewable energy sources.

Central, South and South-East Asia show significant deviations from the global trends in the structure of energy consumption.

Coal will continue to dominate energy consumption in East and South Asia, although the average annual growth rate of coal consumption here will be 1.7% (and the rate of total energy consumption will be 2.7%) and the share of coal in the energy balance of the region will fall from 46.2% in 2010 to 40.1 % in 2050. China's coal consumption growth rate will be only 1.4% and its share of Asian coal consumption will fall from 69.3% in 2010 to 61.2% in 2050, but China's share of global coal consumption will grow from 47% in 2010 to 53% in 2030 due to a decrease in the share of coal in the energy mix of developed countries. countries. The growth of coal consumption on a global scale will be only 0.2% per year in 2010-2050 (calculated by: [Energy Balances..., 2012, p. 11.30]). China's share in the region will decrease due to the growing share of India, where, contrary to the global trend, the growth rate of coal consumption will be quite high (but lower than the growth rate of renewable energy consumption), since with limited opportunities to increase gas imports in the near future, providing energy for the rapid growth of the Indian economy is possible only due to and cheaper than gas, imported (mainly Indonesian) coal.

South, East and South-East Asia will account for the largest increase in gas consumption in the world. China will provide 41% of the growth in consumption in the Eastern countries. The Middle East will see the world's second-largest consumption growth rate. The region's share in global consumption will increase from 12% in 2010 to 22% in 2050 (calculated from [Energy Balances..., 2012, p. 11.30]).

Asian countries will provide more than 3/4 of global demand for oil, a primary energy resource whose share in global energy consumption will steadily decline. China accounts for more than half of global oil consumption. By 2030, China will become the world's largest oil consumer, ahead of the United States, which will become the world's largest oil producer by 2020. India will become the world's third largest oil consumer (calculated from [Energy Balances..., 2012, p. 11.29]).

As electrification continues in the world, an increasing share of primary energy will be spent on generating electricity. By 2050, 53% of primary energy sources will be spent on electricity production in the world, compared to 42% in 2010 (calculated from [Energy Balances..., p. 11.363-11.365]).

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While in North America, developed countries in Asia, and especially in Europe, electricity production will grow by 75% using renewable energy sources (RES), in developing countries in the East, the growth of electricity generation by 78% will come from fuel sources. Despite the efforts of the energy-deficient countries of East, South-East and South Asia to fully develop non-carbon electricity generation, the position of traditional fossil fuels there will remain unshakable. In South Asia, the share of coal in electricity production will remain almost unchanged (61.9% in 2050 versus 63.9% in 2010), the share of gas will increase from 15.2% to 17.1%, the share of nuclear power will increase slightly (from 2.6% to 6.1%), and the share of hydroelectric power will decrease from 16.1% to 9.6%. In Southeast Asia, contrary to the global trend, the share of coal in electricity generation will increase (from 27.4% to 53.6%), while - again against the global trend - the share of gas will decrease (from 48.9% to 33.1%) due to the fact that Indonesia's leadership in the liquefied gas market has been replaced by its transformation into a leading coal exporter.

East Asia's electricity sector will remain the world's largest consumer of coal, although its share in electricity generation will fall from 73.1% in 2010 to 53.4% in 2050, the share of gas will more than double - from 4.9% to 10.9%, the share of hydropower will remain virtually unchanged-14.2% against 14.6%, the share of nuclear power will double-from 4.9 up to 10.9% (calculated from: [Energy Balances..., p. 11.353-11.370; Energy Outlook for Asia..., 2013, p. 84-86]). In the Middle East and North Africa region, electricity production will continue to be almost entirely based on oil and gas, with an increasing share of the latter, which is not surprising given their abundance. In Central Asia and Transcaucasia, the structure of electricity generation will remain virtually unchanged: the share of hydropower will decrease slightly - from 29.9% to 27.1%, the share of gas will increase from 34.5% to 39.9%, and the share of coal will remain almost unchanged - 22.3% against 21.8% (calculated from [Energy Outlook for Asia..., 2013, p. 113]).

Nuclear power will continue to develop in the East despite the decline in its share in global production from 16% in 2010 to 14% in 2050 (calculated by: [Energy Outlook for Asia..., p. 86]). Almost all the reactors under construction and designed are located in Asia: in China - 24, in the Republic of Korea-6, in India-4, in Iran-2, in Vietnam, Pakistan and Thailand - 1 each. Asian countries do not completely abandon the expansion of electricity generation even by this non-carbon method, which does not have a broad commercial prospect. An exception is Japan, which abandoned the construction of new power units in 2014. In the Republic of Korea, the use of nuclear raw materials will remain the mainstay of the electric power industry - 30.1% in 2010 and 29.8% in 2050 (calculated from: [Energy Outlook for Asia..., p. 181]).

The increase in hydroelectric power production in some regions of the East (the Middle East, North Africa) faces natural constraints, while in others (South and South-East Asia) it is associated with acute interstate contradictions on water use issues. Therefore, in the Eastern region as a whole, this type of electricity generation will grow at the lowest rate among all methods of generating electricity, with a progressive decrease in the share of total electricity production. 72% of the increase in capacity will occur in China, where an almost twofold increase in output is projected (calculated from: [Energy Outlook for Asia..., 2013, p. 188]). Along with this, large - scale construction of hydroelectric power stations is planned in Myanmar and Laos, focused on the Chinese market, as well as in Bhutan and Nepal-with promising electricity supplies to India. By the 2030s, these countries will be among the world's largest exporters of electricity generated by hydroelectric power plants. For Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Georgia and Sri Lanka, hydropower will remain the mainstay of the electric power industry with a slow decline in its share in total generation [Energy Outlook for Asia..., p. 123, 132, 148, 163, 313].

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The growth of primary energy demand in East, Southeast and South Asia will outpace the growth of its production. The growing deficit will be covered by imports. Net imports of combustible energy carriers will increase 2.1 times in 2010-2050 (calculated from: [Energy Outlook for Asia..., 2013, p. 30]). The region of the Middle East and North Africa will give the opposite picture: the growth of primary energy production here will be one and a half times faster than the growth of its consumption (calculated from: [Energy Outlook for Middle..., 2012, p. 21]). The region will strengthen its position as the world's main oil and gas exporter. The Southeast Asian region will transform from a net exporter to a net importer of primary energy by 2030. The importance of Central Asia and Transcaucasia as suppliers of hydrocarbons will increase. The situation will vary within the regions. The global trend, which is also characteristic of the East as a whole, is that the number of net exporters of primary energy carriers will decrease with a corresponding increase in the number of net importers. The Eastern region as a whole will remain a net exporter, including both the largest net sellers and net buyers.

Table 2

Balance of primary energy production and consumption in the Eastern regions

Region

Balance of primary energy production and consumption (million tons of oil equivalent)

2010

2035

2050

South Asia

-215

625

-9310

East Asia

-760

-1205

2490

Southeast Asia

+ 115

-75

205

Middle East and North Africa

+355

+430

+545

Central Asia and Transcaucasia

+55

+215

+390

Calculated from: [Energy Balances..., 2012, p. 11.46-11.52].

The increasing dependence of Eastern countries on global energy markets as net exporters and net importers will pose serious problems for both, as energy prices are linked to the price of oil, and this is the most volatile and unpredictable market. If a country's GDP is 30-50% formed from oil revenues (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait), or the country is 90-100% dependent on energy imports (Japan, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, Singapore), then in both cases national control over the main macroeconomic indicators is lost, since now the price of oil is not formed by the state. not so much by the market as by supranational financial structures (hedge funds, investment companies, banks, futures speculators and other players), whose interests are far from the interests of a particular country.

In addition, the history of the last oil bubble has shown that the old IMF rule that " an increase in the price of oil by $ 10 per barrel leads to a decrease in global GDP growth by 0.75%" applies only to medium - and underdeveloped countries with a "soft" currency. As the price of oil rose to a historic high in 2008, the dollar in which oil is traded adequately devalued (and hard currencies adequately strengthened against the dollar), government spending in developed countries increased, the key rate decreased, and household income growth increased. In general, the rise in the price of oil did not affect either the growth rates of economically developed countries or the well-being of their population.

Similar scenarios are also possible in the future, and their negative impact will be directed not only to net buyers, but also to sellers of energy carriers.

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among the developing countries of the East (budget problems, falling national stock exchange indices and company capitalization, depreciation of the national currency, decline in real wages, depreciation of foreign exchange reserves). The huge growth in global energy production and consumption will require equally large-scale investments in new production, transportation, generation, and distribution capacities, as well as in the repair and re-equipment of old ones.

Over the long term, global energy investment has fluctuated slightly around 4% of GDP on average. In developed energy importing countries with a high level of GDP per capita, this indicator is within 2% of GDP, in rapidly industrializing countries with low fuel and energy resources (FER) with a small GDP per capita-4%, in countries with a developed fuel and energy complex and with an average per capita GDP-6%. in developing countries with large and yet undeveloped energy resources and still low per capita GDP - up to 10% of GDP. Thus, the shares of investments in the fuel and energy complex of Singapore, Taiwan, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Israel are in the range of 1.5-1.9%, China, India, Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan, SAR-2.1-4.2%, Iran, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, Myanmar, Iran, Oman, Kuwait, Iraq - 4.2-6.1%, Azerbaijan and Mongolia - 8-10% [Energy Outlook for Asia..., 2013, p. 104].

Total investments in the energy sector of the countries of South, East and South-East Asia will amount to $ 11.7 trillion in 2010 prices for the period 2010-2035 and another $ 6.2 trillion in 2035-2050. Investments in the fuel and energy complex of the Middle Eastern states will amount to $ 3.3 trillion in 2010-2035 and $ 1.8 trillion in 2035-2050, while those of North African countries will amount to $ 0.5 trillion in 2010-2035 and $ 0.3 trillion in 2035-2050 (calculated from: [Energy Investment..., p. 4-8; Energy Outlook for Middle..., 2012, p. 43; Energy Outlook for Asia..., 2013, p. 103]). The scale of investment in the fuel and energy sector in different regions of the East, as well as their industry structure, is very different.

Table 3

Investments in the fuel and energy complex of the Eastern regions required to meet the projected energy consumption volumes in 2010-2050.

Region

Share of the region in total investments in the fuel and energy sector of Eastern countries (%)

Investments in the fuel and energy sector (USD billion, 2010)

Gas

Oil

Coal

Electricity and heat generation

Middle East and North Africa

22.3

1200

2200

-

2500

Central Asia and Transcaucasia

2.6

390

210

-

600

Southeast Asia

6.9

320

310

300

1120

East Asia

45.7

840

800

910

6530

South Asia

14.2

470

380

580

1890

Developed Asian countries

8.3

630

290

320

1950

Calculated from: [Energy Outlook for Asia..., 2013, p. 103-105; Energy Investment.., 2003, p. 6-14].

The most important source of such large-scale investments in the global energy sector will obviously be the reallocation of funds from state funds for price subsidies for primary energy consumption (this, by all accounts, "black hole" of energy) to direct capital investments. Subsidy costs

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The world's energy sector reached $ 2.1 trillion in 2010, which accounted for 3.5% of global GDP, or 8% of the total expenditures of the world's States. More than 20 countries of the world spend more than 10% of their GDP on subsidizing energy (Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, ARE) [The Outlook for Energy..., p. 67; World..., 2011, p. 516-517]. Subsidies are provided both in the sphere of production and in the sphere of energy consumption. Pre-tax subsidies occur when energy consumers pay a price lower than the price of its supply. This is used in countries with poor populations in order to maintain an acceptable standard of living. In addition to consumer subsidies, producer subsidies are widely used when energy companies suffer losses not because of low energy prices for consumers, but because of their low efficiency, which can be caused by an archaic economic system or work in unfavorable conditions (for example, the cost of production and transportation of hydrocarbons in the Persian Gulf is 20 times lower than in the United States). In the North Sea, and 30 times more than in Yamal). To ensure the competitiveness of their energy sector, most countries of the world resort to various forms of subsidies.

Pre-tax subsidies account for 0.7% of global GDP, or 2% of the world's total tax revenue. More than a quarter of them are subsidies to the coal industry. The absolute values of subsidies are highest in large Eastern countries: Iran ($80 billion in 2010), Saudi Arabia ($45 billion), India ($24 billion), and Egypt ($21 billion) [World..., 2011, p. 516-517]. Some countries (Turkmenistan, Iran) spend more on energy subsidies than on education and healthcare. The impact of subsidies goes far beyond budget costs. Subsidies lead to an inefficient allocation of resources in favor of capital-and energy-intensive industries and sectors that rely on government subsidies. Finally, the lion's share of subsidies does not reach the recipient, as they affect the most affluent segments of society, living in homes with air conditioning, heated water and having cars. In general, in the developing countries of the East, 20% of rich households account for 43% of subsidies, while the poorest 20% account for only 8% [World..., 2011, p. 519].

In 2009-2012, due to the extreme economic and environmental harm of price subsidies, binding decisions were made at the international (G-20 summits in Baltimore and APEC in Singapore) and at the national levels on non-interference of the state in pricing in energy markets (in many countries - Indonesia, Thailand, Indonesia, India, Jordan-already from 2013-2014.) and the transfer of subsidies to mainly direct cash transfers. This should lead to a serious increase in the demand for energy from the multi-million-strong mass of the poorest population, which will require additional investment in the energy sector.

The above forecast estimates of energy investment relate only to the achievement of projected macroeconomic and demographic indicators. However, 1.1 billion people in the East are still deprived of access to electricity and 2.5 billion people use traditional biomass for cooking (840 million people live in India, 106 million in Bangladesh, 105 million in Pakistan, 39 million in Myanmar, 123 million in Indonesia) [World..., 2011, p.49]. The International Energy Agency estimates that an average of $ 14 billion will be invested annually in 2010-2030 to ensure access to modern forms of energy for the world's population [World..., p. 469]. Calculations show that cumulative investment over this period will amount to about $ 300 billion; about 87% of this amount will fall on Asian countries (calculated by no: [World..., 2011, p. 475-477]). As a result, the number of Asian residents without access to electricity is expected to decrease from 675 million in 2009 to 375 million in 2030.

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It will allow achieving full electrification of the Eastern countries by 2050, which will require an additional $ 270 billion (calculated from [World..., 2011, p. 469-478]).

The growing pressure of the environmental factor will also entail the need for additional investments in the energy sector. In the period 2000-2010, the volume of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere (85% of emissions are accounted for by energy) increased by 5% annually. The continuation of this trend will inevitably lead to actions to reduce emissions under the pressure of binding international instruments. These actions will be related to technological re-equipment of energy capacities in developing countries (they account for almost all the increase in emissions).

Since there is no alternative to burning mineral fuels in the global energy sector yet, reducing emissions here is possible only through the introduction of low-carbon technologies, and above all, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. The introduction of existing technologies would help to keep C0 2 at an acceptable level. However, these technologies are expensive, and therefore they are currently not widely implemented in the developing countries of the East. The start of large-scale investment in this area should be expected no earlier than 2020, when this will finally be forced by environmental pressure. Annual investment in this area in Afro-Asian countries is estimated at $ 275 billion [World..., 2011, p. 225]. Cumulative investment (as a simple calculation shows) for the period 2020-2050 will amount to 8.2 trillion dollars; 36% of them will be in China, 20% - in India, 9% - in other developing countries of East, South and Southeast Asia, 8% - in the Middle East and North Africa region (calculated by: [World..., p. 224-226]). Emissions trading will make investment flexible and international in nature.

The number of net primary energy importing countries is constantly increasing. Accordingly, the number of countries that are net exporters of primary carbon energy carriers is decreasing. The former are keenly interested in developing and implementing alternative energy sources, while the latter, as well as energy TNCs that largely control the world's primary energy flows, are interested in maintaining the existing situation. Therefore, investments in renewable energy sources are localized mainly in countries experiencing an acute shortage of carbon energy resources - Japan, the Republic of Korea, China, India, Taiwan, and Singapore. Net-exporting countries (the Persian Gulf States, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Mongolia, Algeria, Libya, Brunei) invest mainly in expanding and improving their resource base - in geological exploration, field development, liquefied gas plants, and transport infrastructure.

An ever-increasing share of primary energy sources goes to the production of electric energy. Electrification of industry (displacement of coke by electricity in ferrous metallurgy, spread of electrolysis for the production of not only aluminum, but also other non-ferrous metals, spread of technologies that do not require fuel combustion in the chemical industry, etc.), transport (electrification of railways, hybridization of motor vehicles), construction and housing and communal services (climate control, autonomous heating systems, etc.). heating of water) entails an increase in the share of fossil fuels intended for generating electric energy.

All countries (especially energy-deficient ones) are interested in maximizing electricity production while minimizing the amount of organic fuel burned, i.e., increasing the efficiency of thermal power plants. In this area, we see a field for large-scale investments in the near future, since advanced technologies are already available.

More than half of the world's electricity is generated from coal-fired thermal power plants (in China-80%, in India-76%). Alternatives to coal-fired power, despite the environmental impact of the-

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there are no additional costs yet and they are not expected. The contribution of coal to electricity generation will not decrease until at least 2040. Coal-fired power generation will increase globally from 9 trillion kWh in 2006 to 20 trillion kWh in 2050. About three-quarters of this increase will be in Asian countries. A serious increase in coal-based generation is planned in India, China, Vietnam, and the Republic of Korea, despite the fact that mandatory CCS makes electricity produced at coal-fired power plants more expensive by 30% [Obshchie..., 2007, p. 46].

The efficiency of existing coal-fired power plants in Asia is significantly lower than what could be achieved at present (in India and China - 28%, on average in the world - 35%). China could consume 20% less coal if the efficiency of Chinese power plants were approximately equal to the efficiency of a conventional power plant in Japan [General..., 2007, p. 47]. Efficiency growth can be achieved by introducing modern technologies. An additional incentive is the fact that CCS at low-efficiency stations is unprofitable. Therefore, investing in high-tech, high-efficiency facilities is a key step towards implementing the CCS strategy. Since coal-fired plants have a long service life, the rapid spread of CCS is only possible along the conversion path, since new capacity will still be required to compensate for the power taken for capture. In Japan and China, most of the coal-fired power plants were commissioned in the 1980s and 1990s, which makes it advisable to upgrade them in 2015-2025, given the service life of coal-fired thermal power plants in 40-60 years. India has already reached this milestone, which creates optimal conditions for starting the modernization of its energy sector.

The main obstacle to the further spread of promising technologies in gas turbine generation is the uncertainty of gas prices in the future. At the same time, this fact makes it very attractive to invest in pipeline infrastructure that is closed to the largest natural gas producers - Russia, Iran, and Turkmenistan - on the basis of long-term supply agreements at fixed regional (spot) prices.

The increasing burning of organic fuel (with an increasing share of imported fuel) to generate electricity in order to achieve the projected macroeconomic indicators may prove to be an unbearable economic and environmental "burden" for the rapidly developing countries of the East. Therefore, they show an increased interest in renewable energy sources (RE). However, according to authoritative experts, we should not expect major technological breakthroughs in this area [World..., 2011, p. 184].

Some of the renewable energy technologies are already only marginally competitive and attract the attention of investors in energy-deficient countries. First of all, this applies to the use of biomass. Wood waste-based installations for co-generation of heat and energy in the pulp and paper industry are most heavily invested in wood-rich countries (Myanmar, Indonesia, Laos), followed by the use of solid household waste (large cities). In countries with a developed sugar industry (India, the Philippines, Thailand), the use of sugar cane processing waste plays a significant role. More and more low-power biomass gas generators are being used in rural areas of South and Southeast Asia. The long-term profitability of bioenergy installations is enhanced by the fact that by recycling waste, bioenergy systems contribute to an overall reduction in CO2 emissions, since live growing biomass absorbs CO2; a complete bioenergy cycle (growing biomass - converting it to electrical energy - new cultivation) can provide very low CO2 emissions and save the construction of expensive CCS.

As for the large-scale electric power industry, it should be emphasized that the capacity of bioenergy plants is an order of magnitude less than that of coal-fired plants. It's almost

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doubles capital expenditures and reduces efficiency. But replacing some of the coal with biomass is justified. Co-incineration does not require significant upgrades and reduces CO2 emissions. The payback period for co-incineration systems that use available, locally available biomass is very short.

Co-combustion of biomass with traditional fuels is of interest to many Eastern countries. Utilization of logging and crop waste in the energy sector increases the investment attractiveness of these industries, which are usually the mainstay of the economy of these countries. Co-incineration at thermal power plants makes it possible to avoid non-ecological incineration of waste in forests and on firewood-the most common way to get rid of non-commercial biomass. Many Eastern countries are located in areas that have a high biomass yield and / or large amounts of industrial waste. In countries with a high share of imported coal in the energy mix, co-burning will significantly reduce import costs. Incineration is the most attractive option for large-scale use of biomass for electricity generation in the short term. If co-incineration requires little additional capital investment and biofuels are available for free, the cost of generation can be very low.

Small hydroelectric power plants are a promising area of investment in renewable energy in the near future. The countries of WA, South Asia and Southeast Asia have a dense river network, but the construction of large hydroelectric power plants here has almost exhausted its capabilities (with the exception of China), as it is associated with flooding of river alluvial valleys, which is unacceptable for the East. The potential of "small-scale energy" (without the construction of reservoirs) is used in the East only by 2% (in the world-by 5%) [World..., 2011, p. 184]. Low-power hydroelectric power stations are usually built in riverbeds and even channels with a difference of 1-2 m and represent one of the most environmentally friendly energy conversion options, since they do not significantly change the flow of the river. Small hydropower plants are often used as stand-alone installations to replace diesel generators or other low-power plants, or to supply electricity to rural residents. In densely populated India, for example, the Twelfth Five-year Plan identifies more than 5,000 sites for the construction of mini-hydroelectric power plants, and mostly not on the Himalayan rivers [Twelfth..., 2013, p. 89].

In the IEA scenarios, the contribution of solar energy to the world's total electricity production by 2035 is only 3-5% [World..., 2011, p. 185]. For mass market adoption, total capital expenditures for photovoltaic systems integrated with power grids must be reduced by at least four times. With the current level of progress and implementation costs growing at 15% per year, photovoltaic technologies will not reach an acceptable price level until 2035. Photovoltaic and concentration technologies are particularly attractive in regions where air-conditioned electricity consumption peaks during the daytime summer months: North Africa, the Persian Gulf, Japan, Southeast China.

The introduction of other types of renewable energy (geothermal, ocean energy, etc.) in the Eastern countries should be expected beyond the projected time period. The relevant technologies are still under development, and their practical application is still very far away, so it is premature to talk about any investments.

Investments in transmission and distribution of electricity are no less important than in its production. In many Eastern countries, losses in transmission and distribution of electricity are extremely high (up to 50%), and although some of them are caused by theft, outdated technology plays a crucial role here. Electricity generation and transmission costs are comparable in many countries. The solution to this problem not only depends on investment, but is also a matter of political choice. The most attractive areas for investment are the so-called

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smart grids. This is a system that automatically optimizes energy consumption when the load changes. According to the IEA, by 2030, almost the entire world will switch to smart grid technologies. Its implementation reduces network losses by 30-40% [World..., 2011, p. 202-203]. Most of the Eastern countries have the widest field for investment in this area. In South Asia, for example, replacing existing networks with "smart grids" is equivalent to increasing electricity production by 20% [World..., 2011, p. 206]. Analysis of the factors of production in the electric power industry of the Eastern countries as a whole, the long life cycle of fixed assets and long terms of capital construction lead to the conclusion that there are very few promising developments in the structure of electricity generation. Progress here will obviously follow the path of technical improvement of existing capacities. Only small, rich post-industrial countries can afford to transfer large-scale electricity production to low-power and expensive renewable energy installations. In order to maintain accelerated growth rates, the industrial East is still forced to introduce large capacities of traditional generation. Technological revolutions in transport, industry and construction will further enhance the role of the large electric power industry (millions of electric vehicles, for example, will consume electricity from power plants that burn organic primary energy sources instead of fuel). In the near future, it is possible that the entire energy sector will be understood only as the electric power industry. This fact will further strengthen the carbon nature of the energy sector in most Eastern countries for the foreseeable future.

list of literature

The General trends of the world market of power coal Economic review, December 2007.

BP Statistical Review of World Energy. L., 2013.

Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries. P.: IEA, 2012.

Energy Investment Outlook. P.: IEA, 2003.

Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific. Mandaluyong City, Asian Development Bank, 2013.

Energy Outlook for Middle East. L., 2012.

The Outlook for Energy: A view to 2040 - Exxonmobil // cdn.cxxonmobil.com/...energy/2015 (access date: 21.02.2015)

Twelfth Five year Plan (2012-2017). New Delhi, 2013.

World Energy Outlook. Paris: IEA, 2012.

REFERENCES

BP Statistical Review of World Energy. London, 2013.

Energy Balances of Non-OECD countries. Paris: IEA, 2012.

Energy Investment Outlook. Paris: IEA, 2003.

Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific. Mandaluyong City, Asian Development Bank, 2013.

Energy Outlook for Middle East. London, 2012.

Obshehie tendentsii razvitiia mirovogo rynka energeticheskikh uglei // Ekonomicheskoe ohozrenie, dekabr' 2007.

The Outlook for Energy: A view to 2040 - Exxonmobil // cdn.exxonmobil.com/...energy/2015 (access date: 21.02.2015)

Twelfth Five year Plan (2012-2017). New Delhi, 2013.

World Energy Outlook. Paris: IEA, 2012.

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