A. M. VASILIEV

Director of the Institute of Africa, Russian Academy of Sciences, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Keywords: Egypt, Arab Spring, parliamentary elections, Freedom and Justice Party

The first free, democratic elections in Egypt's history were held. The losers, of course, talk about fraud, but their voice sounds weak and does not attract much attention.

Representatives of different strata of Egyptian society and different ideological beliefs expressed their will and demonstrated their preferences. It turned out that the majority of Egyptians reject both secular liberal-democratic or left-wing parties that try to preach Western values, even with some regard for the specifics of Egyptian society and the deep religiosity of the population, and supporters of the former dictatorial regime, who were called "remnants" (al-fulul).

Voters rejected the former ruling National Democratic Party and its ideology. The majority of Egyptians pinned their hopes on Islamist parties for a better life, for the return of justice and political freedoms, getting rid of the arbitrariness of the authorities, improving the standard of living, restoring dignity and national pride.

Elections were possible after the January 2011 revolution that swept away the military-authoritarian regime of Hosni Mubarak. (Its causes, nature, and driving forces have already been considered in numerous studies, including those of the author of these lines.) The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), which took power in the country, ensured their conduct both under pressure from the Arab "street" and influential political groups, primarily the Muslim Brotherhood Association, and in response to the demands of the United States and other Western countries, for which the very existence of a military regime has become inconvenient.

Observers noted that the elections were fair and clean. Let's refer at least to the opinion of former US President Jimmy Carter. He stated that his organization had monitored and analyzed the electoral process in 87 different parts of the world. Therefore, he has the right to note the integrity of the electoral process in Egypt and its compliance with international standards of openness and fairness. However, he also said that it is necessary to attract more young people, who are poorly represented in parliament, and increase the participation of women in all matters.

The favorite of the elections was the Freedom and Justice Party (PSS), created by the Muslim Brotherhood Association, which won a resounding victory, receiving 218 out of 498 parliamentary mandates-almost 44% (10 deputies are appointed by the current president of the country).

This success was apparently unexpected even for the "brothers" themselves. In an interview with the author in April 2011, one of their leaders, Saad Husseini, said that they would be satisfied if they won 25% of the seats in Parliament. And the leader of the PSU, Mohamed Morsi, said in an interview with his own correspondent of the magazine "Asia and Africa Today" in AR that the party can really get 30% of the mandates***. The party's medium-term strategy was to create a constructive opposition, shift the burden of responsibility for the country's most complex economic, social and international problems to the new government, and then, at a new stage, come to power.

Now the situation is different. The " brothers "were" ahead of schedule " at the threshold of power. They can easily form a government by finding partners in the parliament after the adoption of the new law.-

* The author uses the term "Islamists" to refer to political parties, groups and movements that use Islam as a political ideology, political practice, slogans and some organizational principles.

** See: Vasiliev A.M. The tsunami of revolutions does not subside // Asia and Africa Today, 2011, No. 6 (ed. ed.).

*** See: Vinitsky D. I. Mohammed Morsi: "We fight for power, but we preach peace" / / Asia and Africa Today, 2011, N 12.

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the new constitution and the presidential elections scheduled for June this year. In the meantime, they do not object to retaining the Government of Kamal Al-Ganzouri, appointed by the SCAF.

The current tasks, which are supposed to be agreed upon by the brothers and the Supreme Council, are the election of the Shura Council (the supreme chamber), which has only advisory functions, the election of 100 members of the constitutional assembly to draft a new basic law of the country, and then the holding of a referendum to approve the new constitution. Registration of candidates for the post of President and his election should take place around June this year. The inauguration of the new head of state is scheduled for the end of June-July.

WHY DID THEY WIN?

The success of the PSU (i.e., the Muslim Brotherhood) in the elections was determined by a number of factors, and above all, the fact that its attitudes were close and understandable to the voters.

It should be noted that the Association is a well-structured organization from top to bottom, with thousands of cells (branches) divided by governorates. Members of the brotherhood are divided into several levels - sympathizers, activists, and finally those who are ready for jihad (not in the primitive sense of the media). The comprehensive nature of the brothers ' ideology is also reflected in the organizational forms: the social and family life of each member should fully fit into the branch, and the branch should be part of the Association. All bodies of the organization are elected, including its leader-the supreme mentor.

The Association has reached all levels of society - from the poor to the aristocracy to the wealthiest, from the illiterate to the intellectual, and it also has a strong position in schools and universities.

One of the components of its success is active social activity: organization of schools, medical care, recreation, sports clubs, assistance to the needy, the poor, etc.

For the Muslim Brotherhood, the mosque is not only a prayer house, but also a place of" education " (tarbiyya), gathering and mobilizing people and attracting future members of the Association. When the movement's headquarters moved to Cairo, universities, schools, and the Al-Azhar Muslim University became one of the most important areas of activity.

Some researchers believe that the main base of the organization is the middle class, which prefers reforms rather than radical actions and violence. The middle class has the makings of being more politically active than other strata; it strives for a better life, and this helps it to participate in politics. But the "brothers", as noted above, have supporters in all walks of life.

However, as it turned out, those who represented the workers, peasants and uneducated strata were less oriented towards the "brothers". Their views were largely expressed by Salafists (more on them later).

Behind the "brothers" there was a rich experience of political and social activity.

Until about the end of the 60s of the last century, the Muslim Brotherhood did not reject violence as a method of political struggle. In the late 1940s, they had on hand and in warehouses some weapons collected during the first Arab-Israeli war in Palestine, in which they participated. The" secret organization "of the" brothers " tried to use it. In December 1948, a member of the brotherhood assassinated Egyptian Prime Minister Mahmoud Nukrashi. In response, in February 1949, the Association's leader, Hassan al-Banna, was assassinated by a government agent.1

After the military revolution of Gamal Abdel Nasser in 1952, the brothers collaborated with the military regime until 1954, when they separated from it. In 1954, an attempt was made to assassinate G. A. Nasser. The "brothers" ended up in prisons and concentration camps, where the organization split into moderates and radicals. A faction of followers of the radical ideologue and writer Sayyid Qutb called for an armed struggle against "corrupt, and therefore un - Islamic" regimes in the Middle East, and - accordingly-against the Nasser regime. From his point of view, the Nasser regime contradicted true Islam, and the pre-Islamic era of Jahiliya returned to the country. The ideology of Qutb has become the banner of Islamic extremist organizations all over the world. He considered the United States to be a decadent society, a spiritual vacuum, idolatry, and an ideology hostile to Islam. When the brothers were released from prison for a brief period, Qutb's supporters once again began to act against the regime. Qutb was arrested again and hanged in 1966. Thousands of" brothers " ended up in prisons and concentration camps.2

The Brothers have been semi-legalized under President Anwar Sadat since 1970. He relied on them in his struggle against leftists, communists, and Nasserists. However, when he signed a peace treaty with Israel, the brotherhood opposed him. Many ended up in prison again.

Several extremist organizations that are ready for terrorism have split off from the" brothers". Sadat was assassinated by extreme Islamists in October 1981.

The main movement of the Muslim Brotherhood rejected violent struggle and tried to fit into the political life of Egypt, while strengthening its social base and influence in society. They have shown greater flexibility by entering into alliances with the Labor Party, the Liberal Party, and the Wafd Party.

In the 2005 parliamentary elections, the brothers could only participate as independent deputies. They campaigned under the most famous slogan, "Islam is the solution," 3 and won 88 seats - about 20% of the seats-even though more than a thousand brothers were arrested during the election campaign.

Once in parliament, the "brothers" conducted active propaganda, winning the sympathy of the population. On the one hand, they promoted an increased Islamization of society.-

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the va, on the other hand, advocated for the underprivileged. They claimed that Copts were " full citizens, not Dhimmis." They claimed that with their help, the procedure for building churches would be simplified. At the same time, they carried out propaganda in the West, proving, including in Jewish newspapers, that they had nothing to fear.4

According to the PSS, the Muslim Brotherhood deputies in the National Assembly, elected in 2005, sought to protect the freedom, security and dignity of the Egyptian citizen and fought against the previous regime, which violated the law, the constitution and human rights. They opposed corruption and monopolies, actively participated in budget discussions, introduced and forced Parliament to adopt the most important values of Sharia, defended the oppressed, poor and destitute, and demanded that bank interest be banned as usurious profits.

All this was unacceptable for the Egyptian government, which acted as an" indispensable ally "of the West in the fight against"radical Islamist ideologies." The Government has changed the Constitution, not allowing the nomination of independent candidates and removing the provision that Islam is the religion of the state. When the vote for the new constitution was being held, the"brothers" deputies demonstratively left Hall 5.

In the so-called 2010 elections, which were openly rigged, the "brothers" did not hold a single MP in Parliament. Then the representative of the Association said: "We have lost our seats and well-deserved representation in the parliament. But we won the love and support of the people and won the battle in the media, which showed the falsification of elections. " 6

After the January 2011 revolution, the Muslim Brotherhood was legalized. April 30, 2011 they created the Freedom and Justice Party (SVP).

THE PROGRAM WAS CONVINCING

The PSU's pre-election program was drawn up intelligently and expertly. It addressed the most painful points of Egyptian society-corruption, poverty, unemployment, high prices, housing shortages, national humiliation, Christian-Muslim clashes - and seemed to meet the aspirations of all sectors of society - from young people to pensioners, from intellectuals and university professors to peasants and workers, from businessmen to civil servants, from Copts to Muslims. muslim preachers, etc.

The program was made on the basis of studying and knowing the real problems and hopes of various segments of society with the suggestion of concrete solutions or-visibility of solutions. Of course, the program, like any pre-election statements of all parties, was not devoid of impossible populist promises, for example, the establishment of a minimum wage of 1,200 Egyptian pounds* * per month.

The program contains the principles of building the state on three pillars-legislative, judicial and executive authorities. It rejects the principle of theocracy and emphasizes that the rulers of an Islamic State are citizens chosen in accordance with the will of the people, and the nation is the source of power.

The PSS believes that in the long run, a parliamentary system is best suited to the country's circumstances, as it is based on a flexible separation of powers and cooperation, and a balance between the executive and legislative branches. In this system, the President is the head of state, but does not rule, and the Prime Minister, together with the Parliament, is fully responsible for the Government. However, during the transition period, a mixed parliamentary-presidential system of government is most suitable.

The PSS has taken a very balanced approach to international issues.

On the complex issue of Palestine and recognition of Israel, vague language was given. (More on this issue later.) But at the same time, the program emphasized the need to develop relations with all Muslim countries, including Iran, as well as with all international organizations and major powers, including Russia.

The program demonstrated a respectful attitude towards Copts and a willingness to cooperate with them, including granting the right to build Christian churches. They expressed their readiness to continue supporting the Egyptian Church in order to preserve the values of society, morals and ethics, as well as to counter the "growing waves of corrupt intellectual and moral intrusion" targeting Egyptian Arab and Muslim society.

But there were also careless statements from the PSS leaders. In September 2011, its Secretary-General, Saad al-Katatni, announced that Copts "will not pay a special tax on Christian jizya" now". The word " now " has sparked protests in the Coptic community. The PSC has carefully hushed up this issue 7. In the post-revolutionary period in Egypt, there were clashes between Coptic Christians and Muslims, and arson attacks on Coptic churches. When Copts protested outside a television station last October after the destruction of a church in Aswan province, clashes broke out with security forces, during which 24 people were killed. This caused outrage throughout Egypt, with everyone talking about the need for cooperation between Christians and Muslims. Some attacks on Copts occurred as early as January 2012. The problem remains highly flammable.

It is interesting to note that on economic issues, the PSC was close to the policy that ensured the rapid economic development of Egypt in the last years of Mubarak's rule. These include privatization, the fight against monopolism, competition, and the reduction of corruption.-

* Dhimmi (people of the Book) - a non-Muslim population professing Christianity, Judaism and Zoroastrianism, on the territory of states created or conquered by Muslims (editor's note).

** $1 is equal to approximately 6 Egyptian pounds.

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strengthening the role of the state while maintaining its position in strategically important areas, developing tourism, and building hotels. (After the election, they started talking about a dress code for tourists.)

In the long term, the goal is to increase the level of investment to at least 30% of GDP. Measures to combat corruption are outlined.

At the same time, the PSS called for developing science, increasing spending on research to 2.5% of gross domestic product, and developing and using information technologies for education and enlightenment, but not allowing pornography in them.

It is planned to create enterprises with a large number of jobs, introduce more equitable taxation, provide jobs for educated young people, and create an unemployment insurance fund, although the word "insurance" is not used.

It was noted that gradually all banks in Egypt should switch to working according to Islamic principles.8

Equality of rights and responsibilities between men and women is emphasized. Many kind words were said to women, although when the quota for the number of women in the National Assembly was abolished, they were at the bottom of the electoral lists.9

PREVIOUS SCHISMS AND OVERCOMING THEM

During its history, such a mass organization as the Muslim Brotherhood has experienced several splits, not avoiding internal strife. On the one hand, radical groups that preached violence, including terror, broke away from it.

On the other hand, the Association tried to activate supporters of "liberalization", taking into account the values of Western society. They created the Al-Wasat Party, a moderate Islamist party that broke away from the Muslim Brotherhood. She was allowed to register after almost 15 years of unsuccessful attempts, only after the January 2011 revolution.

Al-Wasat was formed in 1998, when several young but respected "brothers" came into conflict with the leaders of the Association. Abu al-Ala Madi became the head of the new group. He was assisted by Salah Abdel Kerim and Issam Sultan. The party's religious ideology was drawn from the centrist school. This was a liberal interpretation of Islamic traditions. The party leaders believed that the basis of legislation should be Sharia, but it should be interpreted in accordance with the values of the liberal democratic system.

The party immediately ran into problems. Its founders were accused by the Mubarak regime of allegedly trying to create a political wing of the banned Muslim Brotherhood Association. At the same time, the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood, which represented a moderate and conservative majority, decided not to tolerate dissidents and expelled all its members from their membership. Only after the January 2011 revolution was the party legalized. It has been advocating for political reforms all these years, and its program, although not developed in such detail as that of the Muslim Brotherhood, was quite close to them, but at the same time much attention is paid to pro-Western liberal values.10

Political practice has shown that Al-Wasat was not widely recognized and won only 10 seats in the People's Assembly.

In January 2010, Professor-veterinarian Mohammed Badi, who is considered a conservative figure within the Association, was elected leader of the brotherhood. He was supported by the old guard, including the organization's general secretary, Mahmoud Izzat, who is responsible for both secrets and finances of the Brotherhood, and the former supreme mentor, Mohammed Akif. Badie's election showed that the strongest positions in the leadership are held by those who spent many years in concentration camps, but in the late 60s abandoned violent actions. (Under the Mubarak regime, they were jailed again.) From the mid-70s, they began to define the work of the Association, which carefully balanced between supporters of violence and reformers. (We note in parentheses that the former leaders of the" brothers " also allowed ultra-conservative statements. The then supreme leader of the brotherhood, Mustafa Mashhur, proposed reintroducing jizya in 1997. This caused an explosion of discontent among Egyptian Copts, after which he refused such a call.)

It is believed that the reformist wing was headed by Abdel Moneim Abul Futuh. He insisted that there is nothing incompatible between Western values and his interpretation of Islam. According to him, democracy can destroy the solidarity of the" brothers", among whom there are narrow-minded people, and young people think more broadly and can determine the outcome of free elections. Some of the young people considered Abul Futuh their mentor. A party of several hundred people was created under the name "Egyptian Current", which stated that it would be pragmatic and de-ideologized. The leaders of this party were excluded from the Association 11.

The more traditional leadership tried to avoid direct confrontation with the Mubarak regime, despite numerous arrests. Badie said: "We confirm that the brothers are not opponents of the regime." But that was before the pseudo-elections of late 2010, when a confrontation was inevitable. In the meantime, Abul Futuh has been removed from the governing body, the Mentors ' bureau.

The elections showed that the position of the "traditional" leadership of the Association turned out to be the most advantageous and brought the PSS victory.

The Brothers managed to deal with their own dissidents. But unexpectedly, the Salafists emerged as the second most powerful force in the National Assembly.

WHAT ARE THE EGYPTIAN SALAFISTS?

Salafists were predicted to win no more than 10% of the seats in parliament, but they won more than 22%.

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The Salafi Al-Nur Party was established after the January 2011 revolution as the political wing of the Salafi Call Society (Salafi Da'av). It was one of four Salafist parties, but the rest disappeared during the election campaign.

With charismatic leaders and some administrative and organizational experience, drawing on the masses of the deeply religious, most deprived, and least literate population, Al-Noor achieved a convincing victory, finishing second to the PSU.

The mass base of Salafis was created thanks to active and generous charitable activities, which included helping the poor and sick; subsidies to widows, divorcees and young women who need to get married; construction of mosques, religious education. These were the same methods and forms of activity that distinguished the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Salafi Appeal Society itself was founded in the 1980s at the University of Alexandria, when some students refused to join the Muslim Brotherhood. This sparked clashes, and the Salafists decided to institutionalize their activities in the city separately from the brotherhood. Previously, they refused to take part in the political struggle, claiming that the democratic system was fake and contrary to Sharia law. During the January 2011 revolution they did not support the uprising, so as "not to cause bloodshed." They feared that "the Americans would have ordered Mubarak to commit a massacre." 12

Salafis believe that it is necessary to follow the Islamic precepts as they were observed in the time of the Prophet Muhammad, his closest companions and the first subsequent generations. Their entire ideology is based on strict and literal fulfillment of the Qur'an and Sunnah. All legislation must be based on Sharia law. At the same time, the party promises that it will allow Christians to have their own laws on internal matters.

During the election campaign, Al-Nur stated the need to restore Jizya. This would have been in accordance with the ancient norms of Sharia law, but it was strongly opposed by the Copts.

Al-Noor has made a number of populist promises, ranging from free education at all levels and medical care, housing construction, and subsidies for farmers on water, fertilizers, and seeds.

Pessimists claim that the Salafists will pull the" brothers " to the right edge of the political spectrum and do not expect that the PSU will be able to balance the ideology of the Salafists with its moderate political course.

Others argue that the Muslim Brotherhood will dissociate itself from the Salafists and will continue to position itself as a party that adheres to centrist positions and a moderate interpretation of Islam. Therefore, the PSU will seek a common platform with the liberals or other secular parties. These experts are convinced that the PSU deputies will not allow Salafists to involve themselves in the development of legislation prohibiting alcoholic beverages, forcing women to wear the hijab, and also tightening requirements for tourists, including separate beaches for men and women, a ban on women appearing on beaches in bikinis, which would destroy the entire tourism industry. But who can be sure of this optimistic forecast?

During a meeting of the Valdai International discussion club in Sochi in February this year, it was suggested that the Muslim Brotherhood expresses a reformist trend in Islam. They are opposed by the "Salafi-Saudi project", which is used ostensibly to reverse the socio-political development of Arab countries.

As for Israel, the Salafists ' statements are rather vague and contradictory.

On the one hand, Al-Nour declared that it "strongly opposes normalization and attempts at dialogue, establishing relations with the 'Zionist entity' (Israel), which wants to destroy our identity, occupies our lands, imposes a blockade on our brothers and supports our followers "13. The party intends to seek opportunities to amend the Egyptian constitution and the constitution of Israel.-The 1979 Israeli peace treaty with Israel, with vague wording: "We call for the return of all the rights of Egypt and our brothers in Palestine and the occupied territories." 14

On the other hand, the party's official representative Yusri Hammad stated: "Egypt has signed international treaties, and they must be respected. This is not my personal opinion or the opinion of the head of our party. This is the party's policy."

As reported by Al-Arabiya TV, the Al-Nour party would like to hold talks with Israel, noting that this is not a violation of Islamic principles. Hammad said, according to party leader Emad Abdel Ghafour: "We have not received any official proposals from Israel. But if we find ourselves at the negotiating table with Israel, it will only be under the auspices of the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs." According to Israeli press reports, Tel Aviv expressed interest in meeting with members of the Al-Nour party.

Abdel Ghafour had previously made a similar statement about the 1979 peace treaty. However, he pointed out the need to put into effect those provisions of the document that were not applied: "Some articles must be implemented in order to make the Palestinian people feel that the peace treaty has benefited them. Among these articles is the settlement of the Palestinian question and granting the Palestinians the right to self-determination."

Pointing to the possibility of renegotiating the terms of the treaty, Abdel Ghafour stressed that diplomatic relations with Israel will continue as long as they serve the interests of Egypt and the Arab world. He added: "Politics is in a state of constant change,

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so these circumstances should be taken into account. This applies to Israel as it does to any other country."*

PARLIAMENTARY MANEUVERS

After the elections, the People's Assembly began the usual parliamentary maneuvers related to the formation of coalitions or simply reaching agreements on a number of issues.

Saad al-Katatni, General Secretary of the PSU, was elected Speaker, and the chairs of various committees were divided.

The third place in the parliament with 38 seats was taken by the secular liberal party Wafd. It can hardly be said that her election campaign was well organized. But the party made the right move by withdrawing from the PSU-led Democratic Alliance.

Unlike dozens of tiny parties, groups, and groups, the Wafd brand has always been well-known. The Egyptian learned from his school history lessons that the Wafd led the Egyptian revolution of 1919, and for almost 20 years, until the Nasser revolution of 1952, it formed successive governments.

After the victory of the PSU, the party leadership was faced with a choice: either enter a formal bloc with her and get some enviable ministerial portfolios, or become the opposition in the hope of earning points for the future.

Wafd and the Party of Creation and Development (13 seats) They again expressed their readiness to join the bloc with the Democratic Alliance, which is dominated by the PSU15. There were reports that the Wafd and the PSU agreed to coordinate actions in the new parliament. Wafda chief Al-Sayyid Al-Badawi met with the leader of the PSU, Mohammed Morsi. They stated that the drafting of a new constitution should be achieved on the basis of a national consensus.

The fourth place was taken by the participants of the Egypt Block (35 places). It brought together completely different political forces - the left - wing party with a socialist bias Al-Tagammu, which united the heirs of the Communists and Nasserists, the Egyptian Social Democratic Party and the Free Egyptians Party created by the Coptic billionaire businessman Savaris. In the Egypt Bloc, the parliamentary mandates were distributed as follows: 16 were awarded to "free Egyptians", 14 to Social Democrats and 5 to representatives of the Al - Tagammu party.

This alliance is often referred to as a secular bloc that tried to create a counterbalance to the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood and ensure the creation of a civil democratic state in Egypt. At first, it included 21 political parties, but then the majority left it. The disagreements primarily concerned the distribution of future mandates and the place of each individual in the electoral lists.

The Egypt bloc advocated the separation of religion from politics. Attacks by members of this bloc against Islamist parties did not add to its popularity. But many Copts joined the Free Egyptians Party. Therefore, any coalition will have to at least take into account their interests.

Some parties included former members of Mubarak's National Democratic Party (al-Fulul).

A number of parties then joined the "Revolution Continues" alliance created by Internet Youth, which won a meager 2% of seats in the People's Assembly. (Young revolutionaries during a meeting with former US President Carter said that they decided not to seek parliamentary mandates for themselves, but to monitor the process. They were very successful in getting concessions from the SCAF. But they took a very critical position towards the United States, believing that Washington did not support them.)

Behind-the-scenes negotiations and contradictory statements by representatives of various parties, as well as press reports, have not yet brought much clarity to the emerging alignment of alliances in parliament.

Thus, the general secretary of the PSU, Saad al-Katatni, denied reports that appeared in the press that his party was in talks with the Al-Nur party in order to form an "Islamist government", but apparently there were some contacts. The possibility of an alliance between the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafists was also denied by a prominent figure of the brotherhood, Mahmoud Ezzat. However, the leader of the Al-Nour party, Abdel Ghafour, expressed his readiness to form a parliamentary coalition with the PSU16 in December 2011. At the same time, he also denied any conflict with the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. He said :" We often meet to discuss the political situation."

The independent newspaper Al-Masri al-Yaum claimed that Al-Noor was trying to establish ties with rival secular and liberal parties in order to unite their ranks in the new parliament in opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood. But, according to the newspaper, this will be very difficult to achieve, even more difficult to maintain such cooperation, given their serious ideological differences. But these talks show that many are concerned about the prospect of the Muslim Brotherhood dominating Egyptian politics as a result of its election victory, pushing other parties into the background.17

Negotiations between Salafists who aggressively denounced the secular regime and liberals cannot but cause surprise. Indeed, during the election campaign, some Salafi sheikhs claimed that voting for secular parties " contradicts Islam."

The meeting between the Al-Nour party and the two liberal parties - Free Egyptians and Wafd - was organized by the party's representative Al-Wasat Issam

* Farrag Ismail. Hizb al-nur al-Salafi le yumaniou fi al-Hiwar maa Israel (The Egyptian Salafi Party is ready to negotiate with Israel). Al-arabiya, 20 disambar 2011 - http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/12/20/183491.html

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The Sultan. He claimed that during the talks, the leaders of the Al-Nour party sat together with representatives of the Wafda, including women without a hijab, with their faces uncovered. Al-Nur, according to the Sultan, held successful negotiations with the Free Egyptians Party. (And this is despite the fact that its founder, Sawiris, was subpoenaed for contempt of religion after posting a cartoon online showing Mickey Mouse with a beard and Minnie Mouse in a black Islamic chador.)

Al-Ahram also reported after the election that two parties from the Egypt Bloc - the Free Egyptians and the Egyptian Social Democratic Party-were in talks with Al-Nour and the PSU. Al-Tagammu, which has only 5 seats in the People's Assembly, refused to negotiate with the Islamists. But this cannot affect the balance of power in the parliament18.

It can be assumed that the Egyptian parliament will see both logical and strange coalitions of partners who have little in common, entering into a marriage of convenience, with the dominance of the PSS, that is, the Muslim Brotherhood.

WASHINGTON REPENTS

For the US administration and the entire US foreign policy and intelligence establishment, the January 2011 revolution in Egypt came as a surprise. Even more unpleasant was the development of the internal political situation, which led to the results of free elections, this time predictable, and marginalized pro-Western forces in Egyptian society.

The White House is forced to urgently rebuild relations with the"brothers". His first strategic task is to preserve the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty, which is considered the foundation of Israel's security and some kind of stability on its borders. The second task, related to the first, is to try to keep Egypt, the central Arab country with 85 million inhabitants, in the orbit of its influence in the region, by making compromises with the leadership of the"brothers".

At the same time, Washington was trapped in its own dogmas. He campaigned for free elections - and won Islamist victories in Tunisia, Morocco, and now Egypt. He spoke out (at least in words) against military dictatorships - his loyal satellites and allies, but was forced to betray them. He supported pro-Western liberal forces, including the "Internet Youth" who organized unforeseen revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt, and now he is forced to betray these social and ideological allies as well.

Such contradictions were reflected in the statements of the Americans, in which they began to repent of their previous mistakes (although in vain: repentance is not typical of the psychology of Muslims at all and is incomprehensible to them), and attempts to establish contacts and possible cooperation with Islamists.

Even before the election, representatives of the US Embassy and State Department met with the deputy head of the PSU, Isam al-Arian. He said that the PSC recognizes the role of the United States in the world and the region. He expressed the hope that the United States will listen to the voice of the Arab people and respect their desire to create a strong Arab democratic system. "The Arab people want to create democratic states inspired by the Arab-Islamic culture that promotes religious values. And thus add a new model to the world's democratic systems." He called on the United States to respect the people's choice in free and fair elections and to cooperate with the new democratically elected Arab Governments.

For its part, US officials said that the US administration is reviewing its previous positions. It respects the desire of the Arab people to build a democratic system that ensures the rights and freedoms of all, including women and minorities. At the end of the meeting, al-Arian stressed that the US administration should support the rights of the Palestinian people.19

In December 2011, PSU leader Mohamed Morsi was visited by Senator John Kerry and the US Ambassador. The "exchange of views" was similar.20

Immediately after the election, US Assistant Secretary of State William Burns also met with Morsi. He said that the United States will support Egypt economically to help it overcome the crisis, and stressed Egypt's important role in the region and the positive impact it can have on various problems in the region. In turn, the PSU leader noted the important role that the US administration can play in resolving the Palestinian crisis in order to "stop attacks" on the Palestinian people. He also called on the United States to take a clearer position on the "systematic killing of representatives of the Syrian people." 21

Discussing the Palestinian issue in Cairo, former US President John Kerry Carter noted that his organization monitored the 2006 Palestinian elections. These elections were fair and free, but the United States and the international community refused to recognize their results. According to him, the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel has two sides: the first relates to Israel, international obligations in relation to the Palestinian issue, and the second - to military affairs. But only the second part of the treaty was applied, while the first part, which deals with the rights of the Palestinians, was not properly addressed. He noted that the former Egyptian regime has made efforts to ignore this aspect of the treaty.22

Morsi also met with Carter. He also pointed out that the Palestinian issue has a special place in the hearts of Egyptians. The entire Egyptian people, including the PSU, demand that the international community understand the needs of the Palestinian people and their right to statehood. It is important that the blockade is lifted from the Palestinians. He added that Egypt is a large country with functioning institutions and that these institutions are very important.-

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Toots respect agreements signed in the past... within the framework of respect for sovereignty and independence.

In a conversation with the supreme mentor of the brotherhood, Badi Carter reiterated that, as shown by the construction of Jewish settlements and the seizure of Palestinian land, the Israeli side did not respect the rights of the Palestinian people concluded in the peace treaties. He noted that when he was President of the United States, like Bush Sr., he tried to stop the construction of settlements, but both failed. Bush Jr. and President Obama allowed the Israelis to build settlements.

However, Carter's belated revelations reflect not an official position, but a personal one.

Badi, the leader of the brotherhood, said that the "era of sovereignty of peoples" is now approaching, and expressed the hope that foreign states, especially the United States, will respect the will of peoples, radically change their policies, accept the results of elections and deal with the elected representatives of peoples, stop supporting tyrant rulers and dictators, and refrain from interference in the internal affairs of other States.

He also expressed his indignation at the persistence of"terrible injustice against the Palestinian people." Badie called on the US administration, if the US wants a change in the hearts of the peoples who are now filled with hatred towards all American governments, to change its constant unilateral support for the "Zionist" side and take a fair position on this issue in practice, and not just engage in incantations that are heard from the lips of President Obama.23

US Ambassador Ann Patterson, at a meeting with Badie in January 2011, acknowledged that the US administration has made some mistakes in the past, but now it will correct them. The US has learned from these mistakes, so they will not be repeated, and democracy always brings stable partners.24

WESTERN MEDIA SOFTEN THEIR ASSESSMENT OF ISLAMISTS

US foreign policy towards Islamist parties in Egypt is changing. This change is also evident in the American media's coverage of Islamists in Egypt, especially the Muslim Brotherhood.

Three weeks before the start of the Egyptian parliamentary elections, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton confirmed that the Obama administration will cooperate with Islamist parties that are strengthening their positions in the Muslim world. "For years, dictators have been telling their peoples that they must recognize the autocratic regimes they know in order to keep out the extremists they fear. Too often, we have taken this reasoning at face value, " Clinton said.

The American media positively assessed Senator Kerry's visit to Egypt. This, in particular, was written by John Kiriaku, a former CIA employee who worked on counterterrorism issues, now an analyst at the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He pointed to objective factors justifying the Obama administration's strategy of rapprochement with Egyptian Islamists.

According to Kiriakou, the religious views of the "brothers" cannot serve as a convincing reason for Washington to distance itself from the Association. "For many years, the very name "Muslim Brotherhood" frightened Americans, especially the foreign policy establishment. Everyone focused on associations with Hamas, anti-American activities, and women in hijabs. All these associations correspond to reality. The Muslim Brotherhood is also Sunni fundamentalists, but so is Saudi Arabia, and we maintain excellent and mutually beneficial relations with it," he wrote.

The new approach to American foreign policy is combined with a significant shift in Western media discourse on Islamism. Previous concerns that Muslim fundamentalists "stole" Egypt's youth revolution are now giving way to the notion that the Brotherhood is a "moderate" organization.

Covering the parliamentary elections in Egypt, reputable American newspapers noted that the brothers are trying to keep up with the times. These newspapers praised them for the competence and efficiency shown by the brothers, despite the fact that they remained victims of repression for years.

Emphasizing that the Association is more tolerant and democratic than" we in the West "thought, the English magazine "Economist" wrote about the change in attitude towards the" brothers": "Most signs indicate that the Association has thoroughly moved away from both its caricature as the embodiment of intolerance, and from the dogmas that are used in the past. as some of the Association's predecessors have done in the past... the Brothers have repeatedly insisted that they will protect the rights of women and religious minorities and respect the results of elections, even if they turn out to be unfavorable for them. " 25

There is a significant change in the interpretation of the very concept of "Islamism". A number of leading American commentators have tried to present a more complex image of Islamism than in the past, emphasizing the diversity and heterogeneity of a wide range of ideologies that have traditionally been considered " Islamic fundamentalism." Noting the differences between" moderate Islamism "and" extremist Islamism, "they argue that the Arab Spring has shifted the balance of power in favor of" moderate "Islamists. For example, Time magazine wrote that " the influence of moderate Islamists in the country itself is growing."

* Clinton R. Hillary. Address at the National Democratic Institute's 2011 Democracy Awards Dinner. November 7, 2011 - http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2011/11/176750.htm

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The Muslim Brotherhood organization is growing stronger. Their number is significantly higher than that of extremists. " 26

The economist diagnosed " the complete failure of radical Islam, which preaches violence... Egypt seems to fit in with a broader regional trend, which is characterized by a more pragmatic, tolerant form of Islamism that aims to dominate the political arena with the help of ballot boxes rather than rifles. " 27

Thus, the Western press came to believe that "political Islam appears in different forms and clothes." Readers are assured that among Islamists of many and different stripes, the "brothers" are probably the most acceptable, given the religiosity of the Egyptian people, the weakness of Egyptian liberals and the extremism of Salafists. "Grit your teeth and greet it cautiously-in the hope that the Arabs will turn away from the more unpleasant varieties of Islamism," 28 The Economist wrote.

The Muslim Brotherhood's claims that it has no intention of forming an alliance with the Salafists are becoming increasingly convincing in the Western media. The Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists are traditional enemies, they practically compete in the same field of religion, so it is unlikely that anyone can foresee what coalitions will arise, "wrote Thomas Friedman, a well-known columnist for the New York Times.

The Western media now distinguishes between the brotherhood and Salafists, rather than between" Islamist obscurantists "and"progressive liberals." At the same time, the Salafists themselves become the subject of a more thorough analysis, sometimes tinged with sympathy. For example, in the New York Times, David Kirkpatrick wrote that " a more thorough study of the Salafist campaign suggests that their program reflects more outrage at the actions of the Egyptian elite than any special plans in the field of religion... Like other major political parties in Egypt, Salafist candidates support a populist stance against "Mubarak-era thug capitalism." 29

Some media outlets have already gone so far as to describe the Islamists as "genuine democrats" and "the most sensible of all the existing political forces in Egypt." In the Opinion section of Time magazine, Bobby Ghosh wrote under the headline "Why are Islamists Democrats who are better?":"Islamists, as it turns out, understand what democracy is, much better than liberals." In his opinion, Islamists have achieved a well-deserved success due to a more effective organization and a conciliatory attitude towards various political trends. They have shown their effectiveness in providing social services in poor suburbs for decades, they know what language to use to appeal to the disaffected masses; in short, they are doing what the West expected from the Egyptian liberals who failed. Ghosh concluded his article by stating that "liberals still have time to learn how to become better democrats - like Islamists." 30

Most likely, the change in the assessment of Islamists by the Western media is caused by a simple fact, which was stated by the Foreign Affairs magazine: "Washington simply has no choice but to work with those who will come to power in Cairo."

It is also assumed that Egypt will pass through an Islamist stage of development before it enters the path of Western democracies.: "There is hardly a chance for any Arab country to go from Mubarak to Jefferson without going through the Khomeini phase."

However, Washington hopes that the "brothers" will reciprocate the positive attitude towards them, urgently needing Western assistance and foreign investments.

Islamists "found it easy to maintain ideological purity all the years they were not in power. But their unexpected ascent to the top of Egyptian politics coincided with a free fall in the country's economy... and their biggest burden will be to establish this economy without oil (unlike Saudi Arabia or Iran), " T. Friedman wrote in January 2012.

"How will the Muslim Brotherhood be able to promote its fundamentalist religious and social ideas if they scare off the main source of income in Egypt (apparently, this means tourism. - A.V.), not to mention direct foreign investments, not to mention foreign aid from the European Union and the United States? "What is it?" he asked rhetorically. - It is expected that the real tests for the "brothers", when they find themselves in power, will be their ability to fulfill their promises and the economic demands of the masses. Nothing in their declarations suggests that they will abandon neoliberalism... Egypt has no oil reserves. Its only hope for development is free-market capitalism... Whoever inherits power in Egypt must ensure a less corrupt form of capitalism, with more competition, more privatization, and a smaller public sector, while the Egyptian economy sinks."

Perhaps the basis for the West's acceptance of a new Islamic fundamentalist ally was its confidence that the brotherhood would not pose any threat to the free-market system.

LOOKING AT ISRAEL: A MIX OF PRAGMATISM AND IDEOLOGY

The Muslim Brotherhood is trying to maneuver between its hardline anti-Israel ideology and the realities of governing the country. They face one of the main foreign policy challenges - how to deal with Egypt's peace treaty with the Jewish state.

Their position on Mirno-

* Jefferson Thomas - one of the" founding fathers " of the United States, the third president of the country (1801-1809), who had a great influence on the formation of the democratic state and political system of the country. ed.).

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go to the agreement-opposition, but not rejection-is a sign of a sufficiently flexible policy. They are able to abandon rigid doctrinarianism in favor of short-term pragmatism, possibly with a view to a more distant future. They leave all possibilities open and make contradictory statements to clear the way for any decisions.

The brotherhood's current statements on Israel on behalf of the PSU reflect the evolution of its views over the many decades of the organization's existence.

"For the first time in history, the Muslim Brotherhood is in power, and this forces them to be pragmatic when it comes to foreign policy, because any mistake can jeopardize their success," wrote Khalil al-Anani,an Egyptian expert on Islamist movements.

Brotherhood officials have assured the United States that they will maintain the Camp David accords, which have been in place for 32 years. This is the issue that most worries Americans, who see these agreements as the cornerstone of maintaining stability in the region. It seems that reneging on the treaty, which is a major concern for Israel, is not on the brothers ' agenda at the moment, because it would involve them in an unnecessary conflict with the West. Instead, the Association's leaders say they want to negotiate certain points of the treaty, especially regarding restrictions on the troops that Egypt can keep in the Sinai Peninsula.

At the same time, they said the treaty was "unfair" to Egypt and floated the idea that the treaty could be put to a referendum. Perhaps this is an attempt to make gestures to your social base, which is anti-Israeli. But the referendum opens up the explosive possibility that Egyptian society will reject the treaty.

At the same time, the leaders of the brotherhood say that they do not recognize Israel and the members of the Association do not intend to meet with Israelis.

"No one can force me to sit at the same table as the Israelis, "said Mahmoud Izzat, one of the brotherhood's leaders, in an interview with the Associated Press. According to him, the Association will follow the example of the Palestinian Islamic group Hamas, which refuses to participate directly in the peace process.: "The people have chosen Hamas, and it is negotiating with Israel through intermediaries."

Analysts believe that in the near future, the brothers will abandon those ministerial portfolios that involve direct contacts with Israel , such as the portfolio of the foreign minister, and will rely on the president-elect for contacts with Israel.

It is assumed that the main goal of the "brothers" is to strengthen their political dominance in Egypt itself. A confrontation with Israel and the United States over a peace treaty could threaten the solution to this problem.

However, the Association is deeply committed to its anti-Israel ideology and cannot reject it, ignoring the opinion of its supporters. The Association's cadres, like Egyptian society as a whole, were raised in anti-Israel schools from childhood, the oldest members of the organization fought in arms against Israel in 1948. The Muslim Brotherhood opposed the peace treaty with Israel in 1979, and then-President Anwar Sadat retaliated by throwing some of its members into prison. them. "If the PSU leaders are seen in contact with Israel, it will cause a protest in the Association," said Sarvat Herbawi, a former Brotherhood member. - The Muslim Brotherhood should take into account the opinion of its social base, which was raised to hate Israel. For decades, they have been told that any agreement with Israel is evidence of corruption."

In 2007 Issam al-Arian, now the PSU's deputy chairman, sparked outrage among the Association's members when he said the Brotherhood was ready to recognize Israel and respect peace agreements if they came to power. In response to the protests, he said that although the Association does not recognize Israel, once it enters the government, it will have to act in a spirit of"political realism." In an interview with the New York Times columnist T. Friedman in January 2012, al-Arian reiterated this position: "This is an obligation of the State, not of any group or party, and we have already stated that we will respect Egypt's previous obligations." 32

During a meeting with Senator J. R. R. Tolkien, Kerry's party leader, Mohamed Morsi, also said that, as noted in the official statement of the Association, Egypt " respects the signed treaties and agreements." The US State Department said the US administration had received assurances from the brothers that they would respect such agreements.

The leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood immediately distanced itself from this categorical statement. The Association's deputy supreme leader, Rashad Bayoumi, denied any assurances that were allegedly given and confirmed that Brotherhood members would not sit at the same table as Israelis: "We do not recognize Israel. This is an enemy, an occupier, a rapist and a criminal."

Two weeks later, the Association gave a warm welcome to Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who made his first visit to Egypt since his group took control of Gaza in 2007. At the Muslim Brotherhood headquarters, he was greeted by rows of young men and women in hijabs waving green Hamas flags.

This visit suggests, Sarvat Herbawi wrote, that the Muslim Brotherhood "will continue to work together."

* См. подробнее: Muslim Brotherhood mixes pragmatism, ideology on Israel // Egypt Independent, 18 January 2012 - http://www.egyptindependent.com/node/608771

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seek closer ties with Hamas, unlike the Mubarak government, which in principle cut off such ties and even helped Israel with the blockade of Gaza after 2007. Haniyeh stressed that Hamas is like a branch of the "brothers", although they rejected violence back in the 70s.: "The Islamic Resistance Group Hamas is an instrument of the Muslim Brotherhood's jihad.

Sarvat Herbawi claims that talk of a possible treaty change and a referendum is mainly aimed at saving face by highlighting its anti-Israel stance, while the Muslim Brotherhood is developing tactics against Israel. According to him, " they want to walk a tightrope. They don't want to fall off the rope." In fact, the Association is not formally obliged to follow the course of the referendum.

As for the change in the terms of the agreement, the official representative of the brotherhood, Mukhmud Ghazlyan, said that it will be about paragraphs that prohibit the Egyptian army from being in the Sinai, near the Israeli border. "This is about sovereignty," he told the Associated Press. Changing these conditions will not affect the main points of the treaty and the recognition of Israel.

By the way, Tel Aviv showed some flexibility in relation to the Sinai issue, agreeing to deploy Egyptian troops there in 2011 during the revolutionary chaos. However, Israel may refuse to formally change the treaty or allow heavy weapons and air forces to be deployed in the Sinai. Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor said that the government is not going to comment on possible changes to the treaty, because there was no official proposal from Egypt on this issue.

Many analysts believe that in the near future, Egypt, which is dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood, is likely to pursue almost the same policies as Mubarak. For example, Imad Gaad, an Egyptian expert on Israeli issues, said: "They understand that Egypt is not Gaza and that any party must respect the agreements inherited from the previous government, because they cannot afford to worsen relations with America or even with Israel."

"BROTHERS" AND THE MILITARY

While representatives of the" Internet Youth "staged demonstrations to push for certain democratic reforms from the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), the" brothers " chose a different path. They demanded to switch attention from the street politics of the crowd to the parliamentary elections. The slogan "Elections are the solution" emerged at the end of November last year, when the SCAF tried to quell protests in central Cairo and end a week of demonstrations and rallies caused by police and military brutality against their participants.

At the time, the brotherhood claimed that an unknown" third party "was trying to disrupt the elections and sow chaos in the country. It was impossible to explain, for example, why the Coptic demonstrations ended in bloodshed. (The author of these lines believes that both the crowd and the military simply lost their nerves.)

Through its media outlets, the Muslim Brotherhood has launched a campaign against the Revolutionary Socialists and other activist groups, accusing them of anarchy and attempts to destroy the state. In response, representatives of the "Internet Youth" on their social media sites attacked the " brothers "with accusations of political opportunism, betrayal of the ideals of the revolution and" betrayal of the dead heroes " for the sake of power.

Almost from the first days of the revolution, the "brothers" were negotiating, trying to establish cooperation with the military. Tariq al-Bishri, a lawyer known for his Islamist sympathies, and Sobhi Saleh, a member of the Association, were included in the commission to amend the old constitution and draft a constitutional declaration for the transition period.

The Muslim Brotherhood was interested in holding elections as quickly as possible, before other parties could form and start operating. Apart from the sudden rise of the Salafists, this tactic proved correct.

The brothers ' calculation was based on first holding parliamentary elections and creating a new parliament, which would appoint a constitutional assembly to draft a constitution that would determine the nature of political power. And only then, on the basis of the new constitution, choose the president.

The military tried to prevent the implementation of this plan. The situation was very chaotic. Representatives of extremely conservative pro-Islamic forces gathered in At-Tahrir Square, calling for the creation of an Islamic state. The military tried to propose a package of "supra-constitutional documents" that, on the one hand, would prevent the creation of a theocracy in the country, and on the other, would ensure the armed forces full independence from elected civilian bodies in solving military affairs, including the adoption of the military budget. This document provoked not only a negative public response, but also the first clash between the generals and pro-Islamic forces. On November 18 last year, the Muslim Brotherhood called for protests with demands to withdraw this document. They said the military would be required to respect the will of the elected parliament, which has the exclusive right to appoint members of the constitutional assembly. The SCAF was forced to withdraw its document.

These events did not mean a fundamental conflict between the Muslim Brotherhood and the military. Each side maneuvered to strengthen its future positions. The military was weakened by the fact that they could not solve either the economic or social problems of the country and were under constant pressure-

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a list of Western countries that opposed military rule.

In Egypt, the army has never been a guarantor of certain secular traditions, as it was in Turkey, where generals acted as heirs of Kemalism. It was clear that both sides could reach an agreement. The socio-economic privileges of officers and generals will remain intact, but the real power inside the country will be transferred to the Muslim Brotherhood.

At a meeting with J. R. R. Tolkien, According to Carter, the supreme mentor of the "brothers" Badie said that the SCAF currently faces two tasks. The first is to protect the country's borders and ensure its national security, thus fulfilling a function that "we highly value". The second task-to play a political role-is temporary, and it will be completed with the establishment of constitutional institutions. He added that "our position with regard to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces is that we support it when it is right, and when it is wrong, we advise it until it hands over power to civilian authorities elected by the people."33

Carter wrote: "Since the overthrow of King Farouk in 1953 (he is mistaken - in 1952 - AM), Egypt has been ruled by military leaders who have concentrated in their hands all political and military power and significant control over economic affairs. Despite the overthrow of President Mubarak, the military has retained much of its historical power. Only pressure from the revolutionary forces on the street forced them to reluctantly make some concessions. " 34 According to J. R. R. Tolkien, Under President Carter, some key elements of the military's autonomy and privileges will be preserved. They will support and cooperate with all the provisions of the peace agreement with Israel.

At a meeting with Marshal Al-Tantawi, the head of the Armed Forces, the de facto current president of Egypt, Carter received assurances that the law on the state of emergency will be lifted before the presidential election no later than June.

As for the fate of former President Mubarak, the military behaved quite carefully. They could have taken his case to a military tribunal for quick sentencing, which happens after many revolutions, but they preferred to entrust the case to a civilian court. No one has the right to order a civilian judge: "Hurry up, hurry up." A series of legal procedures requires time and patience.

Assessing the role of the military, the New York Times wrote: "It appears that the Muslim Brotherhood and the military have agreed on common principles." 35

Both the brotherhood and the military agree to create a presidential-parliamentary political system that is no more Islamized than it was before, and to guarantee freedom of religion and speech. It seems that the two sides are working on two of the most sensitive issues - the degree of civilian control over the military and the possible presentation of immunity from prosecution to military leaders. The "brothers" sometimes hinted at the possibility of such guarantees, then refuted them. Clearly there was a bargain.

Showing healthy foresight, the leadership of the "brothers" stated that the Association will not nominate its candidate for the post of president. Abul Futuh ignored this decision and declared that he would nominate himself as a candidate for this post, for which he was expelled from the Association.

The realization that the deal may have already taken place without a public debate caused mixed feelings of indignation and relief among liberals and human rights activists.

For its part, the SCAF made a gesture of releasing more than 1,900 prisoners, including 36 popular bloggers.

In interviews and public statements, military and Association leaders have stated that they believe the former Egyptian constitution, adopted in 1971, can be preserved with minor modifications to the role of the president. There remains the previous article, which states that the principles of Islamic law (Sharia) should become the sources of Egyptian law. But it will not be tightened by mentioning more specific provisions of sharia law, as ultraconservative Islamists demand. There will also remain articles on individual freedoms, which are quite adequate if applied in practice.

It is claimed that a compromise was also reached on another issue: the brothers agreed that only a limited number of elected deputies would oversee the drafting of the military budget and military expenditures.37

It is worth noting that a serious conflict broke out between the SCAF and the United States. It turned out that a number of American-funded non-governmental organizations actively participate in demonstrations against the military. Several dozen of their members, including US citizens, were arrested on charges of violating Egyptian laws. In Egypt, the majority met this measure with understanding or indifference, but it caused an almost hysterical reaction from the American media and Congress. It was not possible to extinguish the scandal for a long time.

SOBERING ECONOMIC REALITIES*

Political maneuvers continue. But there are economic and social problems knocking on the door that cannot be solved in one fell swoop. The Arab "street" is still seething, having not received what was expected from the revolution. Apparently, this is why the PSC did not object to retaining the military-appointed Government of Kamal al-Ganzouri.

As J. R. R. Tolkien pointed out. Carter, Prime Minister al-Ganzouri told him that for the next three months of 2012, the country does not have enough $10 billion to cover current expenses. The promised aid from the United States and Arab countries is not coming, and representatives of the International Monetary Fund intend to impose very unpopular reforms on Egypt.-

* For more information, see: Vinitsky D. I. Egypt. Cold economic shower floods the heat of the "Arab Spring" / / Asia and Africa Today, 2012, N 3.

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such as reducing subsidies for bread and other products. (Al-Ganzouri also told Carter that he would remain in office until a new government was formed. But he is ready to return to his former status as a pensioner 38).

Many commentators point out that the main problem facing the new parliament and the new government is to provide a piece of bread for the population. The Muslim Brotherhood, according to its supporters, has developed plans to solve the problems of poverty, education, and the economy. Naturally, the transition period will be difficult, given the clash of party and personal interests. However, the brothers have shown themselves to be a highly rational force that is willing to work with others to prevent chaos from spreading.39

The leader of the PSU, Morsi, argued that Egypt has a great potential for development. Stabilization of the political situation, in his opinion, will help create conditions that are attractive for investment. He noted that Egypt has the infrastructure to activate the private sector, but the political situation during this transition period has discouraged investors.

The Muslim Brotherhood is considered to have much less corruption than society as a whole, and this will help them solve their economic problems.40

The brothers develop their foreign policy strategy, in particular, taking into account the economic realities of Egypt. And these realities require maintaining economic and other cooperation with the United States and other Western countries.

A bill was proposed to the US Congress that defined the conditions for providing US military and economic assistance to Egypt. Under the bill, aid must be approved on the basis of the U.S. Secretary of State's testimony before Congress that Egypt is not in violation of any terms of the treaty with Israel.

The House of Representatives has already approved this bill, which links the provision of $1.3 billion in security assistance and $250 million in economic assistance to two conditions-preserving the peace treaty signed in 1979 by Egypt and Israel, and transferring power to a civilian government that protects human rights and freedom of religion and speech.

The aforementioned scandal involving non-governmental organizations funded by the United States has added salt to the wounds of both US congressmen and the economic bloc of the Egyptian government.

As part of the deal for their release in March this year between the SCAF and the US administration, Cairo will receive almost $12 billion in aid. Moreover, the United States, as planned, will allocate $1.3 billion. The remaining funds should come from Qatar - $4 billion, Saudi Arabia - $3.5 billion, the United Arab Emirates - $3 billion. It is known that the Obama administration exerted serious pressure on the governments of these states to force them to provide the aid promised earlier - after the "January 25 revolution", but never received-to Egypt as soon as possible. In addition, according to the agreements, the process of obtaining soft loans from the International Monetary Fund for Egyptians will be accelerated - about $3.4 billion, $ 1 billion from the World Bank and $500 million from the African Development Bank.

The release of NGO employees caused a storm of indignation in Egypt. Many accused Kamal al-Ganzouri's army and government of following Washington's lead, putting personal interests ahead of state interests. Thus, the Speaker of the National Assembly, Saad al-Katatni, demanded an explanation from the head of the Cabinet regarding the departure of foreigners.41

conclusion

Hasan al-Banna wrote that " Islam is a comprehensive concept that governs all aspects of life." Based on his ideas, the movement's slogan was formed: "Allah is our goal, the Prophet is our leader, the Koran is our constitution, jihad is our means, and death in the name of Allah is our greatest aspiration." 42

Supreme mentor of the "brothers" from 1996 to 2002. Mustafa Mashhur wrote in the last volume of Jihad is the Way, his five - volume work, about the need for Islam to conquer the entire world in order to restore the Caliphate and so that all Muslims would feel a sense of obligation to wage jihad against Israel.43

To this we can add the words of one of the ideologists of the "brothers" Youssef al-Qaradawi: "There can be no other dialogue between them (the Jews) and us than in the language of sword and power." 44

The organization's supreme mentor, Akif (who was in this position before Badie), stated in 2007: "There is no word 'Israel' in our vocabulary. The only thing we recognize is the existence of Zionist gangs that occupied Arab lands and deported the inhabitants. If they want to live among us, they must become residents of Palestine."

Mohammed Badi, the current supreme mentor of the Muslim Brotherhood, said after the January revolution: "We are now closer to realizing the great goal outlined by our founder, Hassan al-Banna, which is to establish a just system of government with all its institutions and government, and then establish a caliphate and rule over the world." 45.

The list of such statements can be continued.

Various offshoots of the Muslim Brotherhood or related ideological organizations exist in both Western Europe and the United States. Anti-Islamic authors claim that "hidden jihad is being practiced", " when Islamic values and customs are being imposed step by step on Western society, and their influence on culture is gradually increasing."

How should these slogans and statements be evaluated?

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In principle, general statements are a fairly common part of the ideological discourse of various political movements, which seem to have a global scope. In the United States, neoconservatives would like to extend the American form of democracy to the whole world, naturally, under the leadership of the United States.

The Communist International proclaimed the slogan of a world revolution, the overthrow of the power of the bourgeoisie, and the establishment of a world dictatorship of the proletariat. Let us recall the words of the International anthem: "We will destroy the whole world of violence to the ground, and then we will build our own, we will build a new world, who was nothing, will become everything." Calls to sacrifice oneself for the sake of a great goal were heard in poems and songs of the Soviet era: "Boldly we will go into battle for the power of the Soviets, and as one we will die fighting for it."

Political practice has shown that national and class interests have always been higher than the declared global goals. The Communist International became a foreign policy tool of the Bolshevik party, which took power in Russia and created the Soviet Union, and then, when it was necessary to cooperate with the United States and Britain in the war against Nazi Germany, the International was dissolved. By the way, in the USSR, the repressions of 1937 are defined by some researchers as a bloody conflict between the supporters of Russian nationalism, who took over under Stalin, and the old internationalist Bolshevik Guard, which actually put Russian interests in second place.

It is possible to assume with a high degree of confidence that in the conditions when, after a long period of underground and opposition struggle, the Muslim Brotherhood finds itself at the head of the largest Arab country, the state interests of Egypt and its new elite will prevail in all their foreign policy steps. And rhetoric will remain rhetoric.

Chamieh Jebran. 1 Traditionalists, Militants and Liberal in Present Islam, Research and Publishing House, [1994?], p. 140.

Hasan S. Badrul. 2 Syed Qutb Shaheed, Islamic Publications International, 2nd ed., 1982.

Bradley John R. 3 Inside Egypt: The Land of the Pharaohs on the Brink of a Revolution. Palgrave MacMillan, 2008, p. 56.

Osman Tarek. 4 Egypt on the Brink. Yale University Press, 2010, p. 101.

5 Ibid., p. 102.

Hani al-Waziri 6, Gada Muhammad al-Sharif. Badi: iktarabna min tahkiq al-gaya al-uzma li al-banna bi-iqamat al-hilafa. Аль-мысрий аль-еум, 30.12.2011 - http://www.almasry-alyoum.com/article2.aspx?ArticleID=322837

Arminius al-Manyavi. 7 Manashit jarida eumiyya yusiru jadalen beina al-akbat wa al-ikhwan - http://www.moheet.com/2011/09/13/

8 FJP 2011 Program on Economic Development http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=29287

9 FJP 2011 Program on Human Development. 3.12.2011 - http://ikh-wanweb.com/article.php?id=29288

10 Egypt Elections: al-Wasat (Center Party). The Cairo Review of Global Affairs, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - http://www.aucegypt.edu/gapp/cairoreview/pages/articleDetails.aspx?aid=100

Glain Stephen. 11 Fault Lines in Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood // The Nation. 12.09.2011 - http://www.thenation.com/article/162970/fault-lines-egypts-muslim-brotherhood

12 Al-Nour Party - http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/3171/al-nour-party

Kais Roi. 13 Egypt's Islamists Seek Changes to Israel peace treaty. 24.12.2011 - http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4166169,00.html.

Aya Batrawy. 14 Islamist Says Party Committed to Treaty with Israel // Associated Press, 22.12.2011 - http://articles.philly.com/2011-12-22/news/30547091_1_peace-treaty-israel-and-egypt-egypti an-border-guards

15 Al-Masri al-Yaum (Al-masri al-eum), 8.01.2012.

16 Ibid., 5.12.2011.

17 Ibid., 14.01.2012.

18 Tagammu Refuses Affiliations with Islamist Parties. Ahram Online, 12.01.2012 - http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContentPrint/1/0/32181/Egypt/0/Tagammu-refuses-affiliatio ns-with-Islamist-parties.aspx

19 In Meeting With State Department Officials, El-Erian Urges US to Respect Will of Arab People - http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=29212&ref-search.php

20 Senator John Kerry and U.S. Ambassador Visit FJP, Discuss Egypt's Democratic Transition // FJP News, 10.12.2011 - http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=29395&ref=search.php

21 FJP Chairman Meets With Assistant U.S. Secretary of State. 12.01.2012 - http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=29538&ref=search.php

Former U.S. 22 President Jimmy Carter After Meeting with Badie: I Recognize Egyptian People's Love for the Muslim Brotherhood - http://www.ikhwanweb.com/print.php?id=29546, 14.01.2012.

23 Ibidem.

24 Badie to US Ambassador: Actions Not Words Will Help US Restore Its Credibility in Muslim World, 1.01.2012 - http://www.ikh-wanweb.com/article.php?id=29568ref-search.php

25 Islamists, Elections and the Arab Spring. And the Winner is...Political Islam is on the M. The West should Keep its Nerve // The Economist, 10.12.2011.

26 Time, 14.07.2011.

27 Islamists, Elections and the Arab Spring...

28 Ibidem.

Kirkpatrick David. 29 In Egypt, a Conservative Appeal Transcends Religion // The New York Times, 10.12.2011.

Gosh Bobby. 30 Why Islamists are Better Democrats. Time, 19.12.2011.

Friedman Thomas. 31 Political Islam Without Oil // The New York Times, 10.01.2012.

32 Ibidem.

Former U.S. 33 President Jimmy Carter After Meeting With Badie...

34 Trip Report by Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter to Egypt, 19.01.2012 - http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=29569ref=search.php

Kirkpatrick David D. 35 In Egypt, Signs of Accord Between Military Council and Islamists // The New York Times, 22.01.2012.

36 Ibidem.

37 Ibid.

38 Trip Report by Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter to Egypt...

Jamal al Qassas 39 and Mona Madkour. A talk with Egypt's Advisory Council head Mansour Hassan // Asharq Al-Awsat, 23.01.2012 - http://www.asharq-e.com/news.asp?section=3&id=28210

40 FJP Chairman Meets with Assistant U.S. Secretary of State. 12.01.2012 - http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=29538

41 Egypt will receive billions of dollars ' worth of aid in exchange for the release of foreign NGO employees / / ITAR-TASS, 4.03.2012.

42 Muslim Brotherhood, 1.03.2012 - http://www.discovert henetworks.org/printgroupProfile.asp?grpid=6386

43 Ibidem.

44 Ibid.

45 Ibid.

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