K. V. MESHCHERINA, Post-Graduate Student, Institute Of Africa, Russian Academy Of Sciences
Keywords: new Libya, parliamentary elections, "somalization", tribalism, terrorism, Libyan prisons
Today, democratic principles of building a society are declaratively recognized by the overwhelming majority of countries. Elections are held almost everywhere, and attempts are being made to implement the principles of multiparty system, separation of powers, and civil liberties.
However, most experts admit that forecasts regarding the approaching "fourth wave of democratization"1, which will affect both the Arab and Muslim world, are rather hasty. Attempts to build "new democracies" - both as an idea and as a political practice - in the modern world have proved to be more complex and contradictory than expected.
February 17 is another anniversary of the beginning of the Libyan revolution, which led to the overthrow of the regime of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 with the help of NATO military intervention. Over the past two years, after the colonel's departure, the country has tried to embark on a path of political transformation. In July 2012, the first parliamentary elections in decades were held - the General National Congress (GNC), designed to develop the constitutional foundations of the new statehood.
The transition to democratic processes in the country has not yet been crowned with success. Libya is what can hardly be called a single State. The country is blind to the" zones of influence " of numerous tribal unions that control oil fields, from time to time participate in tribal feuds and carry out reprisals against former Gaddafists. According to some experts, the Libyan conflict has entered a new phase of activity - the country is now called the new Somalia, and the political process going on in it is the "Somalization" of Libya.2
At the end of October 2011 The UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution No. 2016 on the end of the international operation in Libya, emphasizing that the transition period in that country (the Transitional National Council (TNC) was then the only legitimate authority in the country3) "...must be based on a commitment to democracy, good governance, the rule of law, national reconciliation and respect for the rule of law." human rights and fundamental freedoms of all people in Libya " 4.
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS WERE HELD
The first elections to the National Congress of Libya were announced at the end of October 2011 at the "Middle East Davos" in Jordan by the then head of the NTC of Libya, Mahmoud Jibril. The leading position in the July 2012 parliamentary elections was taken by the so-called liberal bloc. According to the final data of the High Electoral Commission of Libya, the secular " Alliance of National Forces "(ANS)* got 39 out of 80
deputy mandates. The second place was taken by the Libyan branch of the Muslim Brotherhood association-the Justice and Construction Party (PSS) with 17 parliamentary seats. The remaining 24 mandates were given to representatives of small political formations, mainly regional ones.5
The elections themselves were held under a state of emergency. The polling stations did not open on time. In Benghazi, militants shot down a helicopter with ballots, some of which were stolen directly from polling stations and burned in the city square. In Ajdabiya, the ballots were destroyed right in the warehouse, before they were sent to the polling stations. In Ras Lanuf, Brega and Es Sider, militias seized oil loading terminals in an attempt to disrupt the elections.6
Many analysts took the election results ambiguously. The pattern that was observed after the "Arab Spring" was broken, when in neighboring Tunisia and Egypt, which experienced similar political upheavals, Islamists won the election race (however, it is worth noting that in the presidential elections in Egypt in 2012, only a quarter of eligible Egyptians voted for Islamist M. Morsi. This gives reason to believe that he was not "popularly elected", although he received a larger number of votes to win 7. In July 2013, he was overthrown by the military).
The success of ANS, in our opinion, was determined by a number of factors.
First, the Alliance of National Forces (ANS) is the bloc of Mahmoud Jibril, the former head of the NTC, which retained power in the country until the parliamentary elections and received the support of a significant part of the Libyan population. It is considered that in the block vo-
* Liberal, in our opinion, is only conditional, and the political program of the ANS is free from a specific ideological load. In this regard, it is not necessary to compare the bloc with the liberal parties of, say, Western countries. In a number of English-language sources, representatives of the Alliance often appear as "liberal-minded Islamists" - Islamists with liberal views. См., например: Must it get worse before it gets better? // The Economist, September 14, 2013, p. 55.
there was a significant part of the composition of the PNS. However, the Muslim Brotherhood's political wing in Libya was registered in March 2012, shortly before the elections.8
Secondly, Libya is a tribalized country, where the influence of tribal sheikhs, which increased with the collapse of the old central government, is huge. It is correct to describe the voting here not so much on political or religious grounds, but on tribal grounds.
Third, there is a certain blurring in the political orientation of the Libyan parties, due to their "youth" - as a result of the lack of a party system in the country before*.
The results of the parliamentary elections were positively assessed by Western countries - publications about the bright democratic future of this North African country appeared in the press. So, US President Barack Obama congratulated the people of Libya "on another milestone on the road to democracy 9".
Have the political changes that have taken place in the country changed the situation? While the new government was getting to work, separatism increased in a number of regions of the country and the power of local tribal elites was strengthened. After the elections, some researchers noted that separatist sentiment, particularly in the oil - rich eastern part of the country, Cyrenaica, would only increase, eventually leading to the formation of an autonomous region with a local system of government.10 The elected Government initially failed to lead the country on the path of centralization and strengthening of State institutions, although the very existence of such institutions does not guarantee stability and security in the state.
A political crisis has clearly emerged in Libya over the past year. The heads of the VNK were replaced several times. At the end of May 2013, its first head, Mohammed al-Makrif, resigned 11. Makrif's first deputy, Juma Atigha, temporarily held the post of head of the Parliament. At the end of May, a new head of the VNK of Berber origin, Nuri Abusamaini, was elected.12
In July 2013, a wave of protests against political instability and criminality swept through the cities of Libya. There were attacks on the offices of major political parties in Libya-the PSU and ANC 13.
It is obvious that it is difficult for Libyan politicians to agree among themselves. This is evidenced by data on resignations and personnel changes. In addition, the issues of the division of power between the capital and the province, the division of oil revenues, as well as the role of sharia in the country's legal system have become stumbling blocks.
Another touch to the picture of the political crisis in Libya was the temporary detention in October 2013, allegedly on behalf of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the country's Prime Minister Ali Zeidan. Later in Tripoli, a statement was issued by the so-called "Operational Headquarters of the Libyan Revolutionaries", in which it was reported that Zeidan was arrested on charges of corruption. The prime minister was also accused of knowing about the planned operation of American special forces in Libya that same month, which resulted in the detention of Abu Anas al-Libi, who was named as one of the leaders of Al-Qaeda.14
"The purpose of this operation was to overthrow the government and the rule of law," Zeidan later told a news conference in Tripoli. "Some parties want to turn Libya into a new Somalia or Afghanistan"15. According to the head of government, the investigation of the incident with his abduction will be thoroughly conducted, and the perpetrators will be brought to justice.
Meanwhile, a number of experts have already called Libya a state with a "vague" future, in which the abduction of politicians of any rank has become common practice. The state power has no ideology, it has turned out to be unformed, existing only formally, which, in fact, can ultimately lead to its disintegration.
"REVOLT" OF THE TRIBES
Under Gaddafi, the country was actually a confederation of tribes and clans (according to various estimates, there are more than 140 of them). Now tribalism** has only increased. In modern political literature, tribalism, which is also called the "old disease" of Africa, where archaic institutions and organizations associated with the tribal system are still preserved, is most often associated with tribal and interethnic strife, ethno-chauvinist politics. Tribal loyalty prevails over higher levels of community - national, religious 16.
In Libya today, there is no single mechanism that would take into account the interests of most clans. The new authorities did not develop it. Tribal feuds are fought over plots of land, fresh water sources, and most importantly, over oil fields, oil refineries, and oil pipelines. Blockades of oil loading ports have become more frequent in the country. In addition, hostility is fueled by the problem of distributing humanitarian and monetary aid and the large number of weapons left in the country.
Some researchers believe that with the fall of the colonel's regime, the consequences of his policies are evident, because Gaddafi's subordination to power and the economy's dependence on oil only increased the contradictions between the tribes, as the leader chose the tactic of punishing some and encouraging other tribes, depending on their loyalty. 17 However, the Colonel was aware of the dangers of tribalism and the associated risks of maintaining civil peace in the country. George Joffe, a British researcher in North Africa at the University of Cambridge, does not rule out the spread of-
* Under Gaddafi, there was a strict ban on the creation of political parties.
** Tribalism-from the English tribe - tribe.
the phenomenon of "tribal revenge" in Libya*, which is now directed primarily against the ex-leader's native tribe, Gaddafi, and the numerous small tribes associated with him18.
Today, the country is being used by militant groups created along clan or tribal lines, and potential terrorists, in particular, from Mali, with the aim of forming new terrorist cells on Libyan soil. Field commanders (they are also, in most cases, the leaders of local tribes) they do not disband detachments and do not hand over their weapons.
For example, small arms clashes took place in Tripoli in February 2012 between militias from Misrata and Zintan fighting for control of the airport and major properties on the capital's waterfront.19
According to the latest reports, gunfire and explosions are still being heard in the Libyan capital Tripoli. As a rule, the victims of warring groups are civilians. In early November 2013, armed clashes between former rebel groups took place almost overnight in Tripoli. According to media reports, among the victims, and there are more than 20 of them, were ordinary citizens caught in the crossfire. In addition to automatic weapons, 20 anti-aircraft guns and grenade launchers were used.
Some areas of the country are under the control of supporters of the former leader, and in Cyrenaica, attempts are being made to fully manage oil facilities with the creation of its own oil company. 21 The main reason for this step of Cyrenaica is the desire to control two-thirds of Libya's hydrocarbon resources, which are located on its territory, which contradicts the position of the central authorities in Tripoli.
Amid the ongoing escalation of violence in the country, in June 2013, Defense Minister Mohammed al-Barghati left his post.22 It is noteworthy that his resignation almost coincided with the adoption by the Libyan Parliament in May of the same year of the law on lustration, which restricts, in particular, representatives of the former regime to hold public posts.23 However, this de facto confirmed the impotence of the Government in developing a policy of reconciliation between the warring clans.
According to some estimates, the situation in Libya today is critical, and it is now quite difficult to eradicate tribal hostility. However, international experience shows that in such circumstances, reconciliation initiatives and clear measures aimed at their implementation are important, including assistance from the international community. The possibility of ensuring full equality of tribes and/or tribal unions, the participation of tribal representatives in the political life of the country is being considered.
VICTIMS OF LIBYAN PRISONS
One of the main tasks of Libya today is to maintain law and order in the country. A centralized security service has not yet been established here. There are army units in the country. Order is maintained by various police forces, which international human rights organizations regularly accuse of human rights violations, in particular, of torturing thousands of former Gaddafi supporters in prison.
Several North Atlantic Alliance States have already expressed their intention to help train the Libyan police and unified national armed forces. In September 2013, US National Security Adviser Susan Rice named Libya one of the priority countries in the Obama administration's Middle East policy. In particular, it was about creating a new capable army 24 in the country - providing assistance to the command of the US Armed Forces on the African Continent (AFRICOM) together with the armed forces of Italy, Turkey and Great Britain in training, professional training and uniforms of the new Libyan army. According to Washington, this is an important step on the road to democracy.25
The fight against the former Gaddafi regime is still a part of life in modern Libya. There are approximately 8,000 people in Libyan prisons. prisoners who got there after the overthrow of the regime. All of them are deprived of legal aid and any contact with their families, and they are held in custody without trial. Many of them are tortured. This is stated in the report "Victims of torture in Libyan prisons" (October 2013), prepared jointly by the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay. According to Pillay, there are currently about 60 temporary detention centers operating in different regions of Libya, which the central authorities do not control or are unable to control.26
The UN Special Representative to Libya, Jan Martin, in his speech to the UN Security Council in May 2012, said that many supporters of the murdered dictator Muammar Gaddafi are held in secret institutions and prisons, where they are subjected to torture. Martin called on the then Libyan authorities to take measures to establish control, and subsequently close prisons and detention centers. The Special Representative promised to continue dialogue with the Libyan government to " ... encourage it to conduct inspections of prisons, identify secret places of detention and investigate abuses."27.
In turn, the international humanitarian medical organization "Doctors without Borders" (MSF) in early 2012 announced the end of its work in Libya in places of detention, in particular, in isolation facilities.-
* For example, there is strong hostility between large Berber and Arab tribes. The conflict also takes on an interethnic form.
pax Misrata, to protest the killings and torture of prisoners 28.
After the overthrow of Gaddafi, new ideological attitudes of the future Libyan statehood were formed in the country29. Based on one of them-on protecting the achievements of the February 17 revolution-a law was adopted in May 2012, according to which any actions "aimed at promoting or protecting the February 17 revolution" are not subject to prosecution.30 Accordingly, the crimes committed on the basis of "anti-Gaddafism" are explained by the ongoing struggle with supporters and mercenaries of the deposed colonel.
Such laws are not ignored by human rights organizations. Human Rights Watch (HRW) head for the Middle East and North Africa, Joe Stork, said that the adopted document legitimizes selective justice.: "This law allows you to go unpunished for political reasons." Through interviews with relatives, friends of the victims, or eyewitnesses to the crime, HRW produced several reports showing that the highest number of massacres was recorded in the north-east of the country - in Benghazi and Derna in the second half of 2012 and in January 2013. Human rights activists assigned the task of investigating such crimes to the International Criminal Court (ICC), which also criticized the new law.
Will the announcement in July 2013 by Libyan Justice Minister Salah al-Marghani that the Government has decided to bring to justice "those responsible for the killings" in Benghazi and Derna change anything, noting that support from international forensic examiners will be considered 31 in a situation where military crimes have not yet been investigated? time and the perpetrators are not punished?
It is obvious that the old strong "grievances" against the former regime are now making themselves felt. Otherwise, how can we explain what is happening to the victims of Libyan prisons, among whom foreign citizens are awaiting trial?
FOREIGN REPRESENTATIVE OFFICES IN DANGER
Against the background of security problems, a wave of terrorist attacks has swept Libya. Cars packed with explosives in cities explode quite often. In addition, incidents of attacks on government agencies and police stations are recorded.
Life in the country is not only unsafe for Libyans themselves. Over the past two years, attacks on the offices of international organizations and diplomatic missions have become more frequent.
In 2012, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) offices in Benghazi and Misrata were temporarily suspended in the east and center of the country after several heavy-gun attacks.32
The attack on the American consulate in Benghazi in September 2012, on the anniversary of the September 11 attacks in the United States, resulted in the death of Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans. The American TV channel CNN broadcast official statements by the American authorities that linked the attackers on the diplomatic mission with Al-Qaeda in Iraq.33 According to the official report of the American Commission of inquiry into the tragic death of a diplomat, excerpts from which were published in the media, there was a shortage of security personnel at the diplomatic mission.
The Russian Embassy in Tripoli was "attacked" twice: on February 5, 2012, due to the position of the Russian Federation in the UN Security Council regarding the resolution on Syria, and on October 2, 2013, a group of armed militants fired at the Russian Embassy and tried to enter its territory. The protesters set fire to a car parked near the embassy building and smashed the central gate. This attack is associated with the murder of an Air Force officer Mohammed al - Souci, a former soldier of Gaddafi's army who defected to the rebels during the civil war, allegedly by a Russian citizen-a supporter of the overthrown regime living in Libya.
In January 2013, the Italian Consul's car was shot at in Benghazi. In April 2013, a car bomb was blown up near the French Embassy in Tripoli, and in July of the same year, the UAE Embassy was damaged - a grenade was detonated on its territory by armed persons, which damaged the diplomatic mission building.34
In the country, as many researchers predicted, there is an increase in radical Islamist groups. What is happening now in the countries that survived the Arab Spring has nothing to do with democracy. This is an imitation of democracy, which, in particular, is actively used by Islamists who have been fighting for power for decades. The overthrow of the authoritarian leaders of these countries led, as can be seen now, to the flourishing of banditry and terrorism.
In early 2013, the Parliament approved a new name for the country - the State of Libya, temporary-until the adoption of the Constitution.35 The Constitution has not yet been adopted*. At the end of the revolution, Libya is essentially split, and the administrative regions of Tripolitania, Cyrenaica and Fezzan seek autonomy. In the spring of 2012, a movement for the autonomy of this province of Libya, the Congress of the People of Cyrenaica, was formed in Cyrenaica. Autumn 2013-Regional government - "Political Bureau of Cyrenaica" 36. The autonomous status of the province is not recognized by the legitimate authorities in Tripoli.
A country at a crossroads. Ideological attitudes (emphasis on "decaddafization" 37), lack of-
* However, there are many democratic states in the world, such as the United Kingdom, that successfully dispense with constitutions.
The Government's lack of full control over the country, security and law and order problems, and the apparent divisions in Libyan society (both inherited from the previous regime and introduced by the recent revolution) make the transition process difficult after the civil war.
After the departure of the colonel in Libya, protest actions of the civilian population against the widespread "hegemony" of armed groups and militants do not stop. Government demands and threats against these illegal groups are ineffective.38
In late December 2013, armed groups blocked the port and Central Bank of Libya, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Ali Zeidan.39
Time will tell whether Libya will embark on the path of evolution, building a single modern state or federalization with partial autonomy of its provinces, or whether it will turn into a "Somalia of the Mediterranean".
1 The "third wave of democratization" began in the mid-1970s in Southern Europe (the fall of military dictatorships in Portugal, Spain, and Greece), then spread to Latin America, reached some countries in Southeast Asia, and finally, under the influence of the increasingly obvious collapse of communist regimes and attempts at so-called perestroika in the USSR It took over the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, and then the entire post-Soviet space. For more information, see: Melvil A. Y. How to measure and compare the levels of democratic development in different countries? // Based on the materials of the research project "Political Atlas of Modernity", Moscow, MGIMO, 2008, p. 5.
2 "Opinion": what threatens the Russians in Libya - http://www.vesti.ru / doc. html?id-1139209&cid-5(08.10.13)
3 As a result, more than 100 UN and Arab League member states recognized Libya's National Security Council as the only legitimate authority -http://www.the-guardian.com/world/2011/jul/15/libyan-rebels-international-recognition-lead ers
4 UN Security Council lifts no-fly zones in Libya -http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2011/sc10424.doc.htm
5 Project on Middle East Democracy, High National Election Commission - http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/ 07/Libyan-Party-List-Results.pdf
6 Libya election: High turnout in historic vote http://middleeast.about.com/gi/o.htm?zi-l/XJ&zTi-l&sdn=middleeas t&cdn=newsissues&tm=815&gps-468_9_1600_750&f-00&tt=2&bt-3 &bts-31 &zu-http%3A//www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18749808
7 For more information, see: Vasiliev A.M., Vinitsky DM. New round of the Egyptian Revolution / / Asia and Africa Today, 2014, No. 1.
8 Muslim Brotherhood forms party in Libya, 05.03.12 -http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/03/201233225029346350. html
9 Statement by the President on Libya, 07.07.12 http://www.whitehousc.gov/the-press-office/2012/07/07/statement-president-libya
Vandewalle D. 10 After Qaddafi. The surprising Success of the New Libya // Foreign Affairs. November/December, 2012. Vol. 91, N. 6, p. 8.
11 Al-Makrif yu'linu istiqalatihi mina al-wataniyah al-libiyah (Al-Makrif announced his resignation) / / Aljazeera, 28.05.13 - http://www.aljazeera.net/news/pages/0ab85d2d-9bdl-4be0-a174-291d697a5968
12 Intihab Nuri Abusameini raisan l'il-barlamana l'ibiy (election of Nuri Abusameini as head of the Libyan Parliament) / / BBC Arabic, 25.05.13 - http://www.bbc.co.uk/arabic/middleeast/2013/ 06/130625_libya_head_parliament.shtml
13 The Libyan Prime Minister promised to reshuffle the Cabinet of Ministers amid protests / / ITAR-TASS, 27.07.13 -http://www.itar-tass.eom/c12/822001.html
14 The political crisis in Libya has reached a new level -http://www.1tv.ru/news/world/243634
15 Ali Zeidan yubarriu ansar al-sharia wa yattahimu jiha siya-siya tuhawilu iskata-l-hukuma (Ali Zeidan justifies Ansar al-Sharia and accuses a political group of trying to overthrow the government) - http://www.alchourouk.eom/22555/691/l/.html
Jallow A. 16 How tribalism can undermine the peace process // Daily Observer forward with the Gambia, 17.06.09 - http://observer.gm/ africa/gambia/article/how-tribalism-can-undermine-the-peace-process
El-Katiri M. 17 State-building challenges in a post-revolution Libya -http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/publl27.pdf
18 Tribal Rifts Threaten to Undermine Libya Uprising // The New York Times, 14.08.11 - http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/14/world/ africa/Hlibya.html
19 In Libya, former brothers in arms found themselves on opposite sides of the barricades - http://www.ltv.ru/news/world/198079
20 Dozens dead in clash with Libyan militiamen in Tripoli // Reuters, 15.11.13 - http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/ll/15/us-libya-violence-idUSBRE9AE0NJ20131115
Krauss C. 21 In Challenge, Former Rebels in Libya form own Oil Company // The New York Times, 11.11.13 - http://www.nytimes.com/ 2013/11/12/world/africa/in-challenge-former-rebels-in-Iibya-form-own-oil-company.html?_r =0
22 At least ten people became victims of clashes between former revolutionary groups in Libya / / ITAR-TASS, 27.06.13 - http://www.itar-tass.com/c1/788391.ritml
23 Political isolation law: the full text - http://www.li-byaherald.com/2013/05/14/political-isolation-law-the-full-text/#axzz2kw3JJTtr
Wehrey F. 24 Modest Mission? The U.S. Plan to Build a Libyan Army / / Foreign Affairs, 04.11.13 - http://www.forcignaffairs.com/print / 137379; Hundreds of British soldiers will train the Libyan army / / ITAR-TASS, 02.07.13 - http://www.itar-tass.com/mezhduna-rodnaya-panorama/627802
Wehrey F. 24 Op. cit.
26 Despite Government efforts, torture widespread in Libya's detention centres - UN report "Torture and Deaths in Detention in Libya" - http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=46151& Cr=libya&Crl=#.UnznDpYsdVg
27 Thousands remain in secret Libya militia prisons: UN // France Presse, 11.05.12 - http://www.afp.com/en/site/newsletter//Thousands-Remain-In-Secret-Militia-Prisons
28 Libya: Prisoners are tortured and do not receive medical treatment - official website of the international medical organization Doctors without Borders - http://www.ru.msf.org/russia/press-release.cfm?article=380B3040 - 15C5-F00A-258F-7D2C1A1D5A9A
29 for Details, see: Doroshenko E. I. , the State ideology of the new Libya as a reflection of socio-political processes in the country // Asia and Africa today. 2013, No. 9, p. 37.
30 http://www.libyanjustice.org/news/news/post/23-lfjl-strongly-condemns-new-laws-breaching- human-rights-and-undermining-the-rule-of-law
31 Libya: Wave of Political Assassinations // Human Rights Watch, 08.08.13 - http://www.hrw.org/news/2013/08/08/libya-wave-political-assassinations
32 Libya: The ICRC remains committed to helping the population / / ICRC. Information resources - http://www.icrc.org/rus/ resources/documents/interview/2012/libya-interview-2012 - 08 - 15.htm
33 US Intel believes some Benghazi attackers tied to al Qaeda in Iraq // CNN, 25.10.12 - http://edition.cnn.com/2012/10/24/world/benghazi-al-qaeda-in-iraq/index.html
34 UAE embassy compound attacked in Tripoli // Gulf News, 25.07.13 - http://gulfnews.com/news/region/libya/uae-embassy-com-pound-attacked-in-tripoli-1.121339 6
35 "State of Libya" adopted as new official name http://libya.tv/en/state-of-libya-adopted-as-new-official-name/ 36 Krauss С. Op. cit.
Doroshenko E. I. 37 Decree. soch., p. 38.
38 Al-hukuma al-libiyya tutalibu bil-inshihab kul al-mili-shi'at min al - 'asimati ba'da maktal wa l-jarh al -' asharat fi l-ishtibakat damiya (The Libyan government demands armed groups leave the capital after killing and wounding dozens of civilians in "bloody" clashes) // BBC Arabic, 16.11.13 -http://www.bbc.co.uk/arabic/middleeast/2013/l 1 / 131115_libya_tripol i_militia_protesters.shtml
39 http://libya.tv/en/libyan-militiamen-briefly-block-entrance-central-bank
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