The goals and targets set out at the Millennium Development Summit in April 2000 set out to halve the proportion of people without access to safe water and sanitation by 2015. Speaking at this summit of leaders of almost all countries of the world, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan called the problem of providing the world's population with water resources one of the most important tasks of the world community in the Millennium Report.

The growth of the world's population, inefficient use of water resources for economic development and environmental pollution not only significantly complicate the solution of this problem, but also exacerbate the shortage of fresh water in a number of countries, which has already become one of the biggest threats to their economic security. The situation is so serious that in some regions the situation is fraught with armed conflict.*

S. G. LUZYANIN

Doctor of Historical Sciences

E. I. SAFRONOVA

Candidate of Economic Sciences

water shortage Keywords:, China, Russia, Kazakhstan

China is one of the East Asian countries that are capable of exerting and are already exerting a significant influence on neighboring countries in the field of transboundary water use.

The water supply of a number of territories of the Russian Federation, primarily the Omsk and Tyumen regions, largely depends on China, since the Irtysh River, whose upper reaches are located in the PRC, is the largest tributary of the Russian Ob River. The Far Eastern region of Russia, primarily the Khabarovsk Territory, also falls within the sphere of Chinese water influence, due to the fact that part of the Russian-Chinese border runs along the Amur River, and the Chinese Sungari River (Sunghuajiang) is its most full-flowing tributary. The Tumannaya River also flows through the territory of the People's Republic of China.

Problems related to the state and division of waters of transboundary rivers are directly related not only to ensuring water supply in Russia, China, Kazakhstan and some other neighboring Asian countries, but also determine the urgent need for international cooperation in the Far Eastern and Central Asian regions in the field of ecology. And this area of interstate cooperation is complicated by a number of environmental, legal and political problems.

CHINA: A CONTROVERSIAL SITUATION

The water situation in China is quite controversial.

On the one hand, China ranks 5th - 6th in the world in terms of renewable water resources (mainly due to the fact that large coastal areas of the country are characterized by a monsoon river feeding regime, when the summer monsoon brings a lot of moisture and is accompanied by floods and floods). At first glance, China should not be experiencing water scarcity.

However, during the winter monsoon, the dry season begins with a sharp reduction in river flow. Therefore, even with a relatively large amount of average annual water resources, there is a shortage of water1 in the dry season.

In addition, water scarcity in China, as in most other Asian countries, is largely due to its inefficient use. Thus, China spends 10-20 times more water resources per unit of industrial output than in Europe and the United States. In the agricultural sector, which accounts for the main water consumption, irrigation is carried out using traditional methods, irrigation systems are outdated and out of order.

The problem of water scarcity in China is extremely acute due to the pollution of water sources. Water pollution is one of the most important socio-ecological and economic problems in China.

The development of industry, an increase in the number and density of the population, the use of cheaper and therefore more "caustic" fertilizers and pesticides of the "old generation" leads to an aggravation of the water problem. In 2010, the PRC set the task of cleaning half of the country's wastewater.

So far, according to the authors ' estimates, only a quarter of the wastewater volume has been treated. The main danger is represented by pathogenic microorganisms, organic substances

* For more information, see: Water Scarcity-a Global Challenge / / Asia and Africa Today, 2008, N 12.

Russia does not receive enough water from the Irtysh River due to the increase in its intake by China and Kazakhstan.

(biogens), heavy metals, pesticides, and other toxic suspensions and salts that are found in large quantities in the waters of the mainland of the PRC. The Yellow River, China's largest river, is considered the most polluted waterway in ^the world2.

There is a shortage of fresh water in most parts of China.

This is partly due to the natural features of China: the uneven distribution of precipitation across the country; the location of half of the agricultural land in arid areas, where agriculture is impossible without artificial irrigation, etc. About 84% of China's water resources are located in the Yangtze River catchment area and areas south of it3.

Approximately 15% of land is regularly affected by drought, and up to 30% of non - irrigated land is affected in particularly dry years.⁴ Therefore, in arid regions, groundwater resources are widely used, pumping of which leads to subsidence of the earth's surface.

Due to the water shortage, production in the country suffers losses in the amount of $28 billion. annually. More than 600 cities in the country, including the capital Beijing, are experiencing problems caused by a lack or poor quality of water supply.⁵ Currently, more than 20 million residents of the South-West of China are experiencing an acute shortage of drinking water due to the worst drought in the last 100 years. The area of the affected territories reaches 83% of the total area of the country6.

The total shortage of water for domestic and industrial needs of cities is ⁶ cubic km per year7.

According to information published by the Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China, a water crisis may occur in China in 20 years. By 2030, when the number of Chinese residents is expected to reach 1.6 billion. people, per capita of the country will account for only 1.7 thousand. cubic meters of water reserves. Chinese experts themselves consider this a dangerous limit. In terms of fresh water reserves per capita, populous China is only 121st in ^the world8.

Water quality in Beijing and other water-deficient cities is another sore point. There are few wastewater treatment plants, so there is not enough water for technical purposes in Beijing and other megacities. There are no pipelines to bring such water back to the city and use it, for example, for drainage purposes or for landscaping. And the delivery of water in tanks is a very expensive "pleasure".

The project to transfer water from the South to the North of the country, which was developed for almost half a century, is designed to correct the threatening situation with water in China. Artificial waterways will stretch for 2,400 km along 3 lines.

So far, the construction of channels to the northern rivers from the eastern and middle parts of the Yangtze (east direction) has begun. It is this waterway that should provide drinking water to the Chinese capital by the end of 2010. The entire project is planned to be completed by 2050. Its preliminary cost is estimated at $59 billion. However, this figure is likely to increase during construction.

Not all Chinese experts share their optimism about this grandiose hydraulic structure. Ma Jun, author of the book "The Water Crisis in China", believes that because the eastern canal runs in the open ground, the water passing through it will flow to Beijing and other cities already polluted. To prevent this, new large-scale investments will be required. It may also be necessary to move people out of areas flooded with new waters ⁹.

CHINA - REGIONAL HYDRODONOR

Despite the water deficit in China itself, there are objective circumstances that can turn the PRC into an active conductor of its own hydro policy on a regional scale.

China is the "hydrodonor" of the Central Asian region and most of South and Southeast Asia (SE). Many rivers originate in the mountainous regions of the PRC, including the Brahmaputra (Matsang-Tsangpo in Tibet), Indus (called Sindhu in Tibet), Mekong (Zachu-Lancangjiang in China), Hongkha [Red River] (Lishehe-Yuanjiang in the territory of the PRC), etc.

Most of the Central Asian territory is supplied with at least 50% of its water resources from abroad. Thus, about a third of Kazakhstan's water resources come from transboundary rivers originating in China.

If desired, controlling the flow of cross-border rivers can become an effective lever of China's policy towards countries located downstream. There are projects to divert the waters of the Brahmaputra to the north-western regions of China by drilling a tunnel 20 km long through mountain ranges, and due to the complexity of the terrain, nuclear charges are supposed to be used. If this project is implemented, it is likely to significantly reduce the water content of the river in India and Pakistan10.

China is actively developing the resources of the Lancangjiang (Mekong) River. It is planned to build 15 large dams along the main channel and tributaries of this river.

Meanwhile, the role of the Mekong is very important for Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. Due to the climatic features of Southeast Asia, 75% of the annual flow of the Mekong is formed due to the monsoon, which brings especially heavy rains in Laos due to its geographical features and the specifics of the wind rose. Therefore, approximately half of the hydroelectric potential of the Prikho River basin-

The biggest problem of the Amur River and its Sungari tributary is pollution from Chinese industrial waste.

It is aimed at this particular country. Thus, it is logical to expect that Beijing will initiate active cooperation with Laos in the hydropower sector. Lishehe-Yuanjiang (Hongha), the main source of water for the Vietnamese population, may also play a role in China's hydro policy. The Red River Delta is the country's leading rice producing region11.

CHINA - KAZAKHSTAN: PROBLEMS OF WATER USE

In the western regions of the People's Republic of China, which are tasked with developing hydropower, oil, other industries, irrigated agriculture, and livestock production for the needs of the growing and resettled population, the problem of water supply can only be solved by using the cross-border rivers of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) and Kazakhstan.

Beijing intends to use the water resources of more than 30 rivers flowing from China to Kazakhstan, while Kazakhstan receives the vast majority of its water from abroad-from China (Irtysh, Ili) or Kyrgyzstan (Syrdarya).¹².

The main object of joint management is the Black Irtysh River.

The length of the Black Irtysh in China to the border with Kazakhstan is 672 km, on the territory of Kazakhstan it flows into Lake Zaisan with an area of 1800 cubic km. From Lake Zaisan flows the Irtysh proper, into which the Ishim and Tobol tributaries further flow. The economic and household needs of the district already exceed the available water resources by 21%. ¹³ In addition, the water of the Irtysh River is highly polluted.

Bukhtarma, Ust-Kamenogorsk and Shulba hydroelectric power stations have been built and are operating on the Irtysh River in Kazakhstan. The reservoir of the Bukhtarma HPP with a capacity of 490 cubic km performs multi-year regulation of the river flow, and the Shulba HPP - seasonal ¹⁴.

Beijing annually expands the area under cotton and grain crops in the XUAR by increasing the water intake from the Black Irtysh, and after 2010 it will increase to 5 cubic km per year.

The Chinese hydrotechnical "offensive" in Central Asia began in the 1970s, when more than a third of the waters of the Ili River (the third largest river in Kazakhstan) were diverted for irrigation to a large extent on Chinese territory, resulting in a crisis of shallowing of Lake Balkhash.

Water withdrawal from the Black Irtysh River for the needs of agriculture in China was started at the turn of the 1970-1980s. And in 1998, China began the final stage of creating a grandiose construction in the previously sparsely populated western regions of the country-a 22 m wide and 300 km long canal to divert the waters of the Black Irtysh to the Karamai oil fields in Xinjiang and to supply water to the central part of the XUAR. To date, the channel has been built, but has not yet been brought to its full capacity. The maximum capacity of the channel is not disclosed, but it is known that now the Black Irtysh drainage is about 10%. It is expected that by 2020 this figure will reach 20-25%¹⁵.

In our opinion, China's intensification of the use of transboundary rivers can cause the following negative consequences for Kazakhstan: violation of the natural water, climate and general natural balance in the area of Lakes Balkhash and Zaisan; damage to fisheries; decrease in agricultural yields and degradation of pastures; a sharp drop in the biological value of water up to its unsuitability for domestic consumption due to increasing the concentration of harmful substances in it.

Beijing does not yet adhere to two fundamental international agreements - the Convention on the Law of the Non - Navigational Uses of International Watercourses (1997) and the Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (1992). However, it insists on regulating the transboundary watercourse through bilateral negotiations (China-Kazakhstan, without involving Russia).

The legal framework for China-Kazakhstan negotiations is rather narrow. An additional legal challenge for Kazakhstan (as in this case for the Russian Federation) is that the source of the Irtysh River, as already mentioned, is located in the XUAR.

It follows from international legal documents that the owner of river runoff formed on the territory of a particular State is this particular State. Therefore, it has the right to manage these waters and, as implied, must do so in a rational manner, that is, without prejudice to the environment and to economic activities in the waters and territories located downstream. However, it is not specifically specified (and, in fact, this question remains out of the question) whether this State should be responsible for compliance with at least the minimum sanitary standards and, accordingly, the costs of water treatment that the State whose territory the contaminated water enters is forced to bear. ¹⁶

Chinese negotiators are trying to avoid pedaling the most acute problem associated with increasing the level of water intake from the Irtysh and Ili rivers. This tactic seems to involve the intention to stall for time and complete their hydro projects in the Xinjiang Uyghur region on schedule, thus putting their neighbors in front of a fait accompli.¹⁷

BLACK IRTYSH - THE "BLACK HOLE" OF SIBERIA AND KAZAKHSTAN

China is gradually changing the hydro-ecological regime of part of the Irtysh (70% of the riverbed) in its favor, which partly destabilizes the water supply in the south of Western Siberia ^.18

Due to the change in the channel of the Black Irtysh, Russia already receives less than 2 cubic km of water per year, which is why the Omsk, Kurgan and Tyumen regions of the Russian Federation may face acute water shortages.¹⁹

The withdrawal of water from the Irtysh River has also led to problems with water supply in Northern Kazakhstan (for example, the 300-kilometer Irtysh - Karaganda canal has become noticeably shallow). Corresponding member of the National Academy of Sciences of Kazakhstan I. Seversky believes that due to the intervention of the PRC during the Irtysh River, the deficit of its flow will increase so much that maintaining the sanitary minimum of water in the river will be associated with great difficulties, and it will be necessary to abandon navigation, fishing and the necessary flooding of floodplains ²⁰. they are already declining.

According to the coordinator of water resources projects of the National Ecological Center of Kazakhstan K. Duskayev, an increase in the intake of Irtysh water can lead to an environmental catastrophe in the Irtysh region in just a few years:"Water contaminated with heavy metals, petroleum products and nitrates is already coming from China to the Irtysh, and therefore to the Ob." ²¹

For Russia, the "Irtysh issue" is also very relevant because Irtysh now ranks 6th in the country in terms of the volume of contaminated wastewater discharge. The maximum permissible concentrations of most harmful substances in the river and its tributaries exceed the standards by 6-30 times, for petroleum products and copper compounds-by 50 or more times. In the Ob River and its tributaries, due to accidents and failures in the operation of treatment systems, nitrogen and phenol standards are often exceeded by 30 to 90 times ²².

There is a threat of dangerous pollution and the Tobol River with many other tributaries of the Ob that flow to Russia from Kazakhstan. Chemical contamination of water is often irreversible, because it cannot be corrected. Therefore, even now it is possible to cast great doubt on the replenishment of the Ob water resource.

MUDDY WAVES OF THE AMUR RIVER

The Amur River occupies a prominent place in the Russian-Chinese water dialogue.

China does not abandon plans to build a number of hydroelectric power stations (with the necessary dams) along its main channel.

Russia is not against the construction of hydroelectric power stations, but only on the tributaries of the Amur, which it considers more sparing for the water and biological regime of the river. It is possible that these plans of the Chinese side are dictated not only by the tasks of obtaining electricity, but also by plans to transfer part of the Amur runoff to the needs of the inner regions of the PRC. Investments for this purpose will certainly be found.

Pollution of the Sungari River (Sunghuajian), which is a tributary of the Amur River, is another problem.

The state of its waters has repeatedly caused concern to the Russian side. The Sungari River catchment area covers 532,000 square kilometers (28.7 % of the Amur basin area). The main industries of the PRC are oil and oil refining, mining, chemical, forestry and machine-building. The production of paper, artificial fibers and plastics, fertilizers, and automobile tires is developed. While the Chinese population in the provinces bordering Russia is more than 72 million, its growth is about 4 to 5% per year23.

In November 2005, a series of explosions at a chemical plant in China's Jilin Province released large amounts of benzene into the river's water.

In July 2010, flooding caused by heavy rains flooded a chemical plant in the prov. Jilin. In Sungari hit 7 thousand. containers with toxic chemicals. Some of them were caught. Possible hazardous substances did not reach the territory of Russia.

The Chinese leadership claimed that it spent more than $3 billion on cleaning up the Sungari field. As part of the program implemented by the Government of the People's Republic of China in 2006-2010, the entire river flowing through the territory of 4 Chinese provinces was cleaned up. In addition, it is planned to strengthen control over the state of sewage and industrial water discharged into the river.

In 2005, the influence of the Amur River's largest tributaries on the formation of water quality in the area from Blagoveshchensk to Khabarovsk was estimated: The Zeya and Bureya Rivers are located on the Russian side, and the Sungari River is located on the Chinese side. The examination showed that according to the main indicators (suspended solids, ammonium ions, nitrites, nitrates, phosphates), the maximum pollution of the Amur River was noted in the zone of influence of the Sungari River, especially near ^the right Chinese bank24.

Heavy metal ions, such as iron, copper, lead, manganese, nickel, and cobalt, enter the Amur River ecosystem from the Sungari River runoff. Microbiological indication of phenolic compounds contamination revealed that their concentration in the Blagoveshchensk - Heihe section near the right (Chinese) bank of the Amur River is 15 times higher than that near the left (Russian) bank, and in the section below the mouth of the Sungari River - 310 times higher.

Comprehensive studies have shown that fish in the Amur River from Khabarovsk to Komsomolsk-on-Amur are contaminated with pesticides and heavy metal ions. These toxicants were found in ¹¹ fish species25.

According to the Chinese side, the implementation of the Water Pollution Prevention Program in the Sunghuajiang River Basin (Sungari), designed for the period 2006-2010, should be completed in 2010. To date, 92 water treatment facilities have already been completed in Heilongjiang Province, which is 86% of the total number of such facilities expected.

what to do?

The plans adopted by Beijing without the consent of the Russian Federation to use the waters of rivers originating in the PRC and their tributaries are fraught with new economic and environmental risks for Russia, as well as for Kazakhstan.

Despite the fact that the Irtysh is a cross - border river for Russia, Beijing, citing the need for an individual approach in each case, insists on continuing negotiations on the fate of the Irtysh resources only in a bilateral format with Kazakhstan without involving the Russian Federation in them. Apparently, the Chinese side is in no hurry to limit its economy in the use of water resources and, moreover, to compromise with partners on this issue, believing that without adequate water supply, rapid continuous development of the Chinese economy is impossible, which also meets the needs of the country's huge population.

The trans-border situation of the Amur River, as well as the man-made disaster that occurred in 2005 and potential new cataclysms in China, put forward the tasks of close cooperation between the two countries on a wide range of issues in the first place.

The Russian regions of the Amur region initiated the creation of a basin coordinating body to develop a unified strategy and program of actions to stabilize the situation. Through the efforts of the administrations of 6 Amur regions and the environmental community, such a body was created in the form of the Amur Basin Coordination Committee.

Joint monitoring of the trans-boundary waters of the Amur and Ussuri Rivers is being carried out with Heilongjiang Province. Negotiations are underway to discuss a "Memorandum of Understanding on joint monitoring of transboundary waters". The Chinese side was invited to conclude an agreement between the governments of the Russian Federation and the PRC on cooperation in the protection and rational use of transboundary water bodies, as well as an intergovernmental agreement on joint measures to improve the hydrological situation near Khabarovsk (in connection with the development of undesirable riverbed processes on the Amur).²⁶.

On June 6, 2006, the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China signed a plan for joint monitoring of the state of transboundary water bodies in Beijing.

According to the document, since 2007, China and Russia have been jointly monitoring the ecological status of the Argun, Amur (Heilongjiang), Ussuri, Suifenhe and Lake Khanka rivers for 4 years. However, although this document allows to record with a high degree of accuracy the facts of pollution or other harmful effects on transboundary waters, it does not provide international legal tools to eliminate the source of harmful effects. In addition, the Russian side simply does not have enough stations and posts for monitoring water bodies.²⁷

In other words, only the first steps have been taken in establishing cooperation between Russia and China on cross-border river issues.

We need to go further. It would also be useful to transfer the issue of the trans-border Irtysh River from bilateral relations (Kazakhstan - China, Russia - China) to the trilateral agenda of negotiations: Russia-China - Kazakhstan.

The main economic priority of the Russian "water strategy" in the space of the triangle "Russia - Kazakhstan - China" is the development of high technologies for efficient water use and water conservation, especially since our country has indisputable competitive advantages in this regard: the Russian Federation has its own rich experience in managing water resources, as well as extensive knowledge of water specifics accumulated over decades. Kazakhstan, but also the entire Central Asia, as well as its hydrotechnical infrastructure. Russia could be successful in providing technical assistance for the reconstruction of Soviet-era irrigation systems that are already worn out; in facilitating geological research to assess groundwater resources; and in conducting space-based monitoring of the state of water resources.

^{Danilov-Danilyan V. I., Losev K. S.} 1 Water consumption: ecological, economic, social and political aspects - http://www.iwp.ru/monograf/ddwater/te/dd27.shtml

² Ibid.

³ Ibid.

⁴ Ibid.

^{Pleskachevskaya I.} 5 Delo ruk chelovecheskikh - http://sb.by/post/36718 Danilov-Danilyan V. I., Losev K. S. Edict op.

⁶ http://eco.rian.ru/weather/20100317/214849250.html

^{Danilov-Danilyan V. I., Losev K. S.} 7 Decree. op.

^{Safronova E. I.} 8 "Water problem" in Central Asia and its impact on the image of Russia and China in the region. Issue XIV. Moscow, IDV RAS, 2009, p. 101; Pleskachevskaya I. Decree. Op.

⁹ is given by: http://sb.by/post/36718

^{Babayan D.} 10 Podnebesnaya gidropolitika Podnebesnaya gidropolitika - http://www.invur.ru/ index. php?page-news&id=34648

¹¹ Ibid.

^{Revsky A.} 12 Water factor: China's egoism threatens Kazakhstan with an ecological catastrophe - http://www.apn.kz/publications/article 5569.htm Babayan D. Edict op.

¹³ http://www.humanities.edu.ru/db/msg/38687 Tursunov A. A. Hydroecological problems of the Republic of Kazakhstan - http://www.ca-c.org/journal/13-1998/st_09_tursunov.shtml

¹⁴ http://www.analitika.org/article.php7story-2007050701005068

^{Milovzorov A.} 15 The Chinese will arrange the Great Dry Land in Siberia - http://www.utro.ru/articles/2005/12/06/501591.shtml

^{Goncharenko A.} 16 Using transboundary water resources: current state and prospects - http://www.derevodom.com/show_2209.html

^{Revsky A.} 17 Decree. Op.

¹⁸ http://ferghana.ru/article.php?id-1175

¹⁹ http://www.svoboda.org/programs/eco/2002/eco.122602.asp

^{Chichkin A.} 20 Money can be laundered in water - http://www.ruspred.ru/arh/14/17rr.html

²¹ http://ferghana.ru/article.php?id-1175

^{Chichkin A.} 22 Decree. Op.

²³ http://www.informnauka.ru/rus/2005/2005-12 - 30 - 05_414_г.htm

²⁴ http://www.wwf.ru/data/news/2132/1222_nefimov_obzormaterialov.doc

²⁵ Ibid.

²⁶ Ibid.

²⁷ Website of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation - http://voda.mnr.gov.ru/question/7act=view_reply

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