Libmonster ID: UK-1321
Author(s) of the publication: E. S. POLYAKOVA

THE CONFRONTATION BETWEEN RIC-BRIC-BRICS AND THE WESTERN "HEPTAGON" ON THE WORLD STAGE

E. S. POLYAKOVA, Candidate of MGIMO (U) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation

Keywords: RIC, BRIC/BRICS, Russia, India, China, dialogue format, global economy

After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of many years of block confrontation in the world, an unacceptable trend for Russia and other regional powers, such as India and China, began to develop towards the formation of a unipolar world led by the United States and its allies.

Back in 1998, Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Yevgeny Primakov, during his visit to India, put forward the idea of creating a "triangle" - Russia-India-China (RIC) [1].

This concept became the core of our country's foreign policy in the new century, the transition from the pro-Western policy pursued by the then Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation A. V. Kozyrev to the Eurasian policy of E. M. Primakov.

A decade later, in his book "A World without Russia", E. M. Primakov, speaking about the RIC, explained that it was not a question of a military alliance [2]. He stressed the need for such a" geometric figure "to strengthen stability through the development of multilateral relations between its" corners", consultations on acute international issues.

However, at that time, relations between China and India left much to be desired. Therefore, the implementation of the idea of E. M. Primakov was not without difficulties. China, for example, initially refused to participate in the triangle with India, while claiming that "...Beijing pursues a peaceful foreign policy, but is ready to develop diplomatic relations with all countries in the world "[3]. Delhi's reaction was also very cold (before the NATO aggression against Yugoslavia in 1998).

At first, the idea of cooperation in a trilateral format was promoted only by the Russian side. Thus, in October 2000, on the eve of his first visit to New Delhi, Russian President Vladimir Putin, answering a question about the possibility of strategic ties between India, China and Russia, said: "... India, China and Russia have some common interests as countries located in this region, interests that we want to ensure together "[4].

Emphasizing that the RIC is not a new military-political alliance, China and India initially participated in its creation in a dialogue format.

The work began with meetings of the foreign Ministers of the three countries on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly sessions in 2003-2005, as well as in Almaty, as part of the Ministerial Conference on Interaction and confidence-building measures in Asia, held in October 2004.

The first purposeful meeting of the ministers was held in June 2005 in Vladivostok [5], which, by the way, aroused great interest in the world media. An article in the Times of India called it a "watershed moment". [6] However, no high-profile statements were made then. It can be assumed that this meeting was organized rather to determine the common interests of the three countries and to improve relations between China and India.

The last meeting of the RIC Foreign Ministers was held in New Delhi on 10 November 2013. It discussed general issues of world politics, such as the holding of the Geneva-2 conference on the peaceful settlement of the conflict in Syria, the resolution of the Syrian crisis and the resolution of the Syrian crisis.-

page 57

Table 1

BRICS countries ' GDP growth rate (in %)

Year

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

The world at large

1,4

-2,1

4,0

2,8

2,2

Brazil

5,2

-0,3

7,5

2,7

0,9

Russia

5,2

-7,8

4,5

4,3

3,4

India

3,9

8,5

10,5

6,3

3,2

China

9,6

9,2

10,4

9,3

7,8

SOUTH AFRICA

3,6

-1,5

3,1

3,5

2,5



Source: World Bank data - http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ NY. GDP.MKTP.KD. ZG/countries/CN-BR-ZA-lW?display=graph

the Iranian nuclear issue, as well as internal issues of the Troika. In addition, special attention was paid to the problem of Afghanistan. In particular, it was emphasized that "...Russia, India and China will make every effort to establish Afghanistan as a peaceful, prosperous, stable, independent and prosperous State. We agreed to step up this work within the framework of the UN and the SCO* " [7].

The RIC agenda is very diverse. For example, among other issues, the prospects for implementing transport and energy projects are discussed in a trilateral format. Trilateral cooperation between Russia, India and China is important both in terms of security and in terms of infrastructure projects [8]. Work in this direction can be continued within the SCO after India joins the organization.

Thus, it can be argued that the goal set by E. M. Primakov-to improve interaction between India and China, as well as to create a certain counterweight to unilateral decision-making by the West, in general, has been achieved.

THE GENESIS OF BRICS

Parallel to and based on the RIC, a new dialogue format - Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa (BRICS**) - was being developed, initiated by Vladimir Putin in 2009. But it's too early to talk about replacing one format with another.

Compared to BRICS, the RIC's agenda focused mainly on the Euro-Asian region and the strengthening of India-China relations. The BRICS agenda is more global, with a focus on financial and economic issues. By the way, the BRICS format aroused a lot of skepticism in the world, but at the same time a lot of interest was shown in it due to the large political and economic potential of the "five".

Currently, BRICS is an association of states that account for approximately 43% of the world's population [9] and 27% of the world's territory. The GDP growth rates of these five countries also remain high.

In 2012, according to the World Bank, China's GDP was $8.4 trillion (second in the world after the United States), Brazil-$2.3 trillion (7th), Russia - $2 trillion (8th), India - $1.8 trillion (10th) and South Africa - $384 billion. (27th place in the world). In addition, India and China showed strong economic growth during the crisis, when both the global economy as a whole and developed countries experienced a decline in production (see Table). 1) [10, p. 2].

The political influence of BRICS is associated with the participation of two permanent members of the UN Security Council (Russia and China), as well as with the fact that certain BRICS members are members of leading international organizations and structures (the UN, the Group of Twenty, the Group of Eight, the Non-Aligned Movement), as well as regional associations (Russia - CIS, CSTO, EurAsEC; Russia and China - SCO, APEC; Brazil - Union of South American Nations (UNASUR***) and MERCOSUR****; South Africa - African Union (AU) and South African Development Community (SADC)***** ; India - South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)****** [And].

The BRICS countries can be called regional powers (this term refers to a state that is able to adjust the policies of neighboring countries using its own resources).-


* SCO - Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

** Before South Africa joined in 2011 - BRIC.

*** UNASUR-Union of South American Nations (member countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela), founded in 2004.

**** MERCOSUR-Common market of South American countries (member countries: Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Paraguay, Uruguay), founded in 1991.

***** SADC-Southern African Development Community (member countries: Angola, Botswana, DRC, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Seychelles, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe) formed in 1980.

****** SAARC - South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (member countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka), founded in 1985.

page 58

Table 2

Dynamics of changes in the share of groups of states and individual countries in the system of quotas and votes of the IMF (in % of the total number)

 

2006

2013

2015

Quota

Votes

Quota

Votes

Quota

Votes

USA

17,380

17,023

17,670

17,398

16,727

16,470

Brazil

1,420

1,783

1,402

2,315

1,714

2,217

Russia

2,782

2,734

2,494

2,386

2,705

2,585

India

1,945

1,916

2,442

2,337

2,749

2,627

China

2,980

2,928

3,996

3,806

6,390

6,068

SOUTH AFRICA

0,874

0,867

0,784

0,770

0,640

0,634

brix

10,0

10,2

11,1

11,6

14,2

14,1



Source: BRICS-Africa: Partnership and Interaction, Moscow, IAfr RAS, 2013, pp. 33-34.

mainly "soft power" countries), which now include a relatively small number of countries. This group includes India, China, Australia, Brazil and to some extent Mexico, as well as South Africa and Nigeria (the possibilities of forming regional powers in Africa are still limited). At the end of the 20th century, Russia joined the ranks of regional powers [12, p. 123].

One of the strengths of BRICS is the economic potential of its member countries. The "five" countries have maintained good growth rates over the past few years [13]. As Russian President Vladimir Putin stated: "... BRICS occupies a unique place in the global economy, it is the largest market in the world."; "The BRICS countries have huge natural resources, have a trained industrial base and professional personnel, and create almost 30% of global GDP"; " The overall average annual growth rate in 2012 was 4% compared to 0.7% in the financial Group of Seven countries. The difference is more than five times " [14]. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stressed that " ... the contribution of the BRICS countries to global economic growth over the past decade has amounted to about 50%. This makes this group of states the main driving force for the development of the global economy " [15].

In addition, the BRICS summits provide additional opportunities for concluding strategic economic agreements. So, in 2013, during such a summit in Durban, the leaders of China and Brazil reached an agreement on the creation of a currency swap line. We are talking about using national currencies in the amount equivalent to $30 billion for mutual settlements in trade between the two countries.

The volume of bilateral trade between Brazil and China in 2012 exceeded $75 billion, and the concluded agreements on currency swaps will displace quite a significant part of the trade turnover between the two countries from the US dollar zone [16].

INCENTIVES FOR MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL TRADE

All this makes it possible for BRICS to unite, if not to create some alternative to the existing economic order, then at least to complement it. Thus, the "Etekwini Declaration" [17] of the 5th BRICS Summit, held on March 26-27, 2013 in South Africa (Etekwini is the current name of the "Greater Durban"), emphasizes the need to reform existing financial institutions in order to make them more representative in the context of increasing the weight of the "Five" countries [18, p. 9]. First of all, it is about expanding the opportunities of developing countries in the decision-making process of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The fact is that the IMF is organizationally similar to a mutual fund, only on a global scale. Participation in its management depends on the quota of the member state, which determines the maximum amount of its financial obligation to the IMF and its number of votes, and also affects access to funding from IMF funds [19, p. 33] (see Table 2).

Speaking about Russia's share in the IMF, it should be noted that in July 2012, President Vladimir Putin signed a law providing for an increase in the Russian quota in the IMF from 2.49% to 2.71% [20]. This will increase the total share

page 59

Table 3

Russia's foreign trade with BRICS countries (2010-2012, $ mln)

 

2010 Turnover

2011 Turnover

2012 Turnover

Growth rate % (2011-2012)
Turnover

China

59290,9

83 231,9

87 508,8

105,1

Brazil

5865,6

6 514,0

5 658,9

86,9

India

8535,7

8 866,3

11 040,3

124,5

SOUTH AFRICA

519,1

580,0

964,4

166,3

The whole world

625979,1

822 478,3

837 294,9

101,8



Source: according to the Federal Customs Service of Russia.

The BRICS group's vote in the IMF is up to 14.1%, which will bring the group closer to the blocking package of 15%, and also allow the BRICS to play a more important role in the Fund's decision-making.

However, most representatives of rich countries, especially the United States, do everything possible to minimize losses in their positions. For them, it is important to prevent a practically significant increase in the role of the BRICS countries in the IMF, especially with regard to the real management of the Fund's activities. To do this, they are ready to make a symbolic increase in the share of quotas and voting rights for the poorest and resource-deprived developing countries, which can be negotiated with the help of "familiar arguments" on the eve of decisive votes [19, p.38].

In general, the BRICS summits help BRICS participants coordinate actions on various issues, which, together with the objective strengthening of the global role of the five countries, gives them the opportunity to more confidently defend their positions in the slowly reformed international economic and financial system. In addition, the declarations following the meetings lay the foundation for further comprehensive development of the BRICS. Thus, a significant public response was caused by the statement about "the possibility of creating a new Development Bank in order to mobilize resources for infrastructure and sustainable development projects in the BRICS countries" [21].

Such an initiative was made by the Indian side during the BRICS summit in New Delhi in March 2012. The concept was developed at the next summit, held in March 2013: the leaders of the "five" countries agreed to create a New Development Bank [17]. However, there are also a number of problems here. Questions about the amount of declared and contributed capital of the bank and how to manage it have not been resolved [22].

At the G-5 meeting in 2013, a proposal was also made to create a "virtual secretariat". In fact, it is an Internet portal, in the open part of which materials about BRICS activities and analytical comments will be posted, and in the closed part - ministers of the five countries will be able to conduct confidential correspondence [23]. This could help coordinate the activities of the association's member countries, and the secretariat itself could serve as its information center. In addition, Internet portals are being created that publish news and analytics about the BRICS countries [24].

Political rapprochement has a positive impact on trade and economic relations between the participating countries. Thus, according to the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, trade turnover in 2012 made it up:

Russia and Brazil - $5.7 billion. (in 2011 - $6.5 billion, Russia's share in turnover in 2012 - 0.7%);

Russia and China - $ 87.5 billion. (in 2011 - $83.2 billion, the share of the Russian Federation in turnover - 10.5%, an increase compared to 2011-5.1%);

Russia and India - $11 billion. (in 2011 - $8.7 billion, the share of the Russian Federation in turnover - 1.3%, an increase compared to 2011-24.5%);

Russia and South Africa - $964.4 million (in 2011, $519.1 million, the share of the Russian Federation in turnover - 0.1%, an increase compared to 2011-66.3%) [25].

China-India trade turnover exceeded $63 billion in 2012. (in 2010 - $42.4 billion) [26]. As part of the BRICS, China became the largest trading partner of Russia, India and South Africa in 2013. Among other things, it should also be noted that, according to Russian Africanists, "... BRICS is a very promising channel of Russian-African cooperation " [18, p. 12] (see Table 3).

All this contributes to the formation of a kind of new geopolitical project, without the participation of developed countries. Through this project, participating countries can promote their global interests, increase their political influence, and help reform the existing model of global economic development. Apparently, the West feels the same, which is why it is gradually pursuing a policy of "containment" of the BRICS.

This policy is implemented in two main areas:: a) hindering consolidation

page 60

and b) the creation of alternative, more "correct" and "perfect" associations/groupings [19, p. 47].

WHY THE WEST CRITICIZES BRICS

In this regard, it should be noted that, despite the objective achievements of BRICS, Western media focus on the weaknesses and internal differences in the association. Thus, the American newspaper "Wall Street Journal" writes that the "five" countries proposed to create a BRICS Development Bank, but even this attempt highlighted the contradictions in the group, since each of the states has its own views on this bank [27]. Further, the dependence of the group countries on Western markets is noted: "BRICS considers itself as an alternative to the Group of Seven industrialized countries (USA, Japan, Germany, Great Britain, France, Canada, Italy) - in political and economic terms. However, the economies of the BRICS and G7 countries remain interconnected. After the US financial crisis spread to Europe, he began to move on. " [27]

Thus, we can say that the members of the "five", as before, are largely interconnected with Western countries. And if an economic crisis occurs in the G7 countries, its echoes are more or less "audible" in the BRICS countries. In addition, Western countries remain the largest trading partners of the "five" countries.

Foreign Affairs magazine also casts doubt on forecasts of BRICS countries ' rapid growth.: "These forecasts usually take the high growth rates of the developing world in the middle of the last decade and extrapolate them for the future, comparing them with slow growth in the United States and developed industrial countries "[28].

Many political scientists note that BRICS still lacks a "connecting material". Thus, Harvard University professor Joseph Nye writes: "... the lack of unity is a symptom of the basic incompatibility of BRICS members. Politically, China, India, and Russia are vying with each other for dominance in Asia. And in economic terms, Brazil, India and South Africa are concerned about the consequences of the undervalued Chinese currency for their economies" [29].

Another interesting opinion is: "China is the muscle of the band, and the Chinese know it. They have an effective veto on any initiative of the group, because without them, who really cares? They alone have large reserves. China is the largest potential market" (published on the Foreign Policy website [30]).

We can agree that the criticisms of Western experts contain some rational arguments, but there is a clear underestimation of the enormous potential of the BRICS.

Nevertheless, Western states seem to have begun to recognize the strengthening of the BRICS position, as evidenced by the opening of a number of research centers to study the role of the "five" countries as actors in international cooperation.

* * *

Summing up, we can say that the new BRICS figure that grew out of the RIC" triangle", although not without difficulties, continues its development. And this has a positive impact on the fulfillment of the task of Russia's foreign policy course-the formation of a multipolar world.

It should be recognized that the potential of BRICS cooperation has not been fully realized, which is due to a number of factors. The Development Bank should become an important BRICS institution, although, as mentioned above, there are also a number of difficulties here. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov notes:"...The formation of BRICS reflects an objective trend towards the formation of a multipolar system of international relations and the strengthening of economic interdependence. In such a system, non-institutional structures of global governance and network diplomacy are increasingly in demand "[15]. However, it should be recognized that despite the coordinated positions on many issues, if one of the participating countries becomes involved in a serious military conflict, it is unlikely that the other four (at least at this stage) will provide more than just moral support.

In addition, within the framework of the" five " there are certain internal contradictions between the participants. Thus, there is still some tension in the Indian-Chinese relations. But at the same time, BRICS offers an opportunity to ease these tensions within the framework of the association. In addition, despite the fact that the BRICS format is one of the most important areas of foreign policy of its member countries, its participants will not make decisions that could harm their relations with other countries.

Other countries ' desire to join BRICS shows that it is very popular and promising

page 61

join. This was stated by the leaders of Mexico and Argentina. Some experts also talk about Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey.

Given that the current economic and financial system requires a major revision, BRICS, taking into account its further expansion, could play an important role in this revision, and perhaps even propose a new development concept.

In conclusion, a few words about the BRICS cultural and civilizational factor. It is constantly noticed, especially in India.

The hegemony of Western civilizations and cultures could not fail to arouse a strong desire for revenge in others, and right now the first opportunities are beginning to appear for this. The common history and unity of tasks, resulting from the specifics of historical development and the unequal position in the international division of labor, undoubtedly cement the ties of the countries of the South. From a geopolitical and psychological point of view, the regional powers of the South (Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, etc.) are more likely to cooperate with the Asian giants - China and India-than with the West. The previous model of participation in the world economic division of labor still prevents the formation of such a coalition, but over time such obstacles will gradually be removed. And Russia definitely needs to take this into account.

1. Russia favours 'strategic triangle' among India, Russia and China (21.12.1998) // сайт Rediff - http://www.rediff.com/ news/1998/dec/21rus.htm

2. Given by: Primakov E. M. The world without Russia? What does political myopia lead to? M., Rossiyskaya gazeta, 2009, p. 194. (Primakov E. M. Mir bez Rossii? M., Rossiyskaya gazeta, 2009) (in Russian)

3. China refuses Russia's call to form strategic triangle with India (23.12.1998) // Arab News - http://www.arabicnews.com /ansub/Daily/Day/981223/1998122320.html

4. Interview to Indian mass media and Russian TV channel RTR 1.10.2000 / / website of the President of Russia - www.kremlin.ru

5. On the trilateral cooperation of Russia, India and China (24.10.2011) / / website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation - www.mid.ru

6. Kosyrev D. Breaking ice at Vladivostok // Times of India -http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2005 - 06 - 03/edit-page/27837054_l_china-and-india-three-countries-vladivostok

7. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's speech and response to a media question at a press conference following the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Russia, India and China. New Delhi, November 10, 2013 / / website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation -www.mid.ru

8. Luzyanin S. G. BRICS will not replace the RIC / / Voice of Russia. 16.04.2012 - http://rus.ravr.ru/2012_04_16/ 71891064/

9. Население мира (2011 г.) - http://data.worldbank.org/ indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?order=wbapi_data_value_2011+wba pi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=asc

10.Cit. by: Akimov A.V. Will the "brick"survive? // Asia and Africa today. 2013, N 5. (Akimov A.V. Viderzhit li "kirpich"? // Asia i Afrika segodnya. 2013, N 5) (in Russian)

11. The concept of Russia's Participation in the BRICS Association (approved by the President of the Russian Federation on 09.02.2013).

12. Lunev S. I. Znachenie formatov RIC, BRIC and BRICS dlya Indii [The significance of the RIC, BRIC and BRICS formats for India]. History and modernity. Issue XVII: Annual edition, Moscow, IDV RAS, 2012.

13. GDP of countries by purchasing power parity (2003-2011) / / World Bank website - http://data.worldbank. org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?order=wbap_i_data_value 2010+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=desc

14. Speech at the working breakfast of BRICS leaders with representatives of business circles, 27.03.2013 / / website of the President of Russia - www.kremlin.ru

15.Cit. Sergey Lavrov: BRICS - a New Generation Global Forum // International life. 2012, N 3. (Lavrov S.V. BRICS - globalnyi forum novogo pokoleniya // Mezhdunarodnaya zhizn. 2012, N 3) (in Russian)

16. Brazil and China have taken a course to move away from the dollar (26.03.2013) / / Vesti Ekonomika - http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/25429

17. Etekwin Declaration and Etekwin Plan of Action - http://kremlin.ru/ref_notes/1430

18.Cit. Korendyasov E. N., Urnov Yu. A., Shubin V. G. Africa, Russia and the 50th anniversary of the OAU / AU / / Asia and Africa Today. 2013, N 9. (Korendyasov E.N., Urnov Y.A., Shubin V.G. Afrika, Rossiya i 50-letie OAU/AU // Asia i Afrika segodnya. 2013, N 9) (in Russian)

19.Cit. according to: Fituni L. L. Strany BRICS i reforma mirovoi finansovoi arkhitektury. M., 2013 (in Russian)

20. Cited in: Chichkin A. Russia increases the quota in the IMF (18.02.2013) / / Rossiyskaya Gazeta - http://www.rg.ru/2013/02/18/kvota-site-anons.html

21. Delhi Declaration (29.03.2012) / / website of the President of Russia - www.kremlin.ru

22. The BRICS Bank may be established no earlier than 2015-Deputy Head of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation (18.04.2013) / / RIA Novosti website-http://ria.ru/economy/20130418/933229133-print.html

23.Cit. by: Tarasenko P. BRICS will get a single bank and a virtual secretariat (13.02.2013) - http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2125884

24. One of these sites is BRICS post. See: http://thebricspost.eom/about-us/#.UaS5xEAqx2s

25. Foreign trade of the Russian Federation by main countries for January-December 2012 and for January-August 2013 / / website of the Federal Customs Service of Russia - http://www.customs.ru/index2.php?option=com_ contents&view=article&id=17091: - 2012 - &catid=125:2011 - 02 - 04 - 16 - 01 - 54&Itemid=1976;

26.Cit. by: Davydov V. BRICS in search of a New World Balance // Nezavisimaya Gazeta - http://www.ng.ru/dipkurer/2012 - 03-05/9 briks.html

27. Davis Bob. BRICS Fade as Engine of Growth (01.01.2013) // The Wall Street Journal - http://online.wsj.com/article/ SB10001424127887324677204578188400990457408.html#artic leTabs%3Darticle

28. Sharma Ruchir. Broken BRICs (November-December 2012) // Foreign Affairs - https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ articles/138219/ruchir-sharma/broken-brics

29. Nye Joseph. BRICS without cement mortar (03.04.2013) / / Project Syndicate - http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-brics-will-not-work-by-joseph-s-nye/russi an

30. Rothkopf David. What BRIC would be without China (19.03.2013) // Foreign Policy - http://rothkopf.foreignpolicy. com/posts/2009/06/15/the_brics_and_what_the_brics_would _be_without_china


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Create and store your author's collection at Libmonster: articles, books, studies. Libmonster will spread your heritage all over the world (through a network of affiliates, partner libraries, search engines, social networks). You will be able to share a link to your profile with colleagues, students, readers and other interested parties, in order to acquaint them with your copyright heritage. Once you register, you have more than 100 tools at your disposal to build your own author collection. It's free: it was, it is, and it always will be.

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