V. P. KASHIN

Candidate of Historical Sciences

NARENDRA MODI VS THE GANDHI-NEHRU DYNASTY

Key words: India, Parliamentary elections 2014, Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi, Gujarat, Bharatiya Janata Party, Indian National Congress

According to the Indian Constitution, general parliamentary elections will be held in 2014, which will expire on May 31, 2014. They are usually held in several stages in April-May. On September 13, 2013, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi was officially named as the candidate for Prime Minister from the main opposition party, the conservative Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ^.1

A survey conducted by India Today magazine in early 2013 indicated that 36% of respondents wanted him to be Prime Minister.² The centrist Indian National Congress (INC) candidate Rahul Gandhi was supported by 22%, BJP Patriarch Lal Krishna Advani by 6%, Sonia Gandhi by 5% and incumbent Prime Minister Manmohan Singh by 4%. And if the parliamentary elections were held in early 2013, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP, would have 198-208 seats (159 in 2009), and the United Progressive Alliance (OPA), led by the INC, 152 - 162 seats (259 in 2009).³. A survey of 9,000 respondents representing the Indian media also showed that 48% of respondents want to see N. Modi as the future head of government of the country, and R. Gandhi-18%⁴.

In September 2013, more than 60% of Indians viewed Modi's work positively. He enjoys particularly strong support in the north and west of the country, and in the southern states N. Modi and R. Gandhi are on a par ⁵.

THE GLITZ AND POVERTY OF GUJARATI AVANT-GARDISM

As a rehearsal for the 2014 parliamentary campaign, the country's leading parties, the INC and the BJP, considered the Gujarat Legislative Assembly elections held in late 2012. They provided rich food for thought and forecasts for the future. The author of the article was an eyewitness to the events and repeatedly traveled along the route from the largest metropolis of Ahmedabad to the administrative center of Gandhinagar.

For Modi, these elections were the third in his political career. A charismatic leader, an energetic administrator, and the architect of Gujarat's "economic miracle," he hoped for a resounding success that would allow him to claim the BJP's unqualified bid for the post of Prime Minister of India.

The western state of Gujarat, with a population of 60.4 million (2011 census), is one of the five most industrially developed regions in India. It accounts for 16% of industrial output, 22% of exports, and 30% of the country's stock market turnover. It accounts for 80% of the diamond jewelry industry, 58% of the petrochemical industry, 50% of the chemical industry, 42% of the pharmaceutical industry, and 30% of the cotton fabric industry. The state produces 53% of the country's crude oil and 31% of its natural gas. It has the richest reserves of limestone, bauxite and lignite and is the only supplier of chalk. There is also the largest number of ports - 41. In 2009/10, their cargo turnover was 205 million tons, and in the next two to three years it is expected to grow to 500 million tons.⁶

Gujarat's agricultural output growth over the past five years has reached 9.6% against 3.2% across ^the country7. The state produces 35% Indian cotton and 42% peanuts. The secret to the success of its agricultural sector is to provide farmers with irrigation water and cheap electricity, and gradually switch to the production of export crops-mangoes, bananas and wheat.

The success of the state was made possible by the state-wide reform of 1991, aimed at freeing the economy from excessive state control and liberalizing it, creating an attractive investment climate, and the skilful leadership of Gujarat by its native Chief Minister N. Modi. He served as General Secretary of the BJP from 1998 to 2001, and on October 7, 2001, he succeeded state leader Keshubhai Patel, who was in conflict with local party leaders.

* For more information see: Kashin V. P. // Modi-the rising "star" of Indian politics // Asia and Africa Today, 2012, No. 10 (Editor's note).

leaders. According to the popular magazine India Today, in 2006 and 2011, N. Modi was recognized as the best Chief Minister of India.

It was N. Modi who ensured a wide influx of investment in the state and brought it to the first place in this indicator. On his initiative, the international business summit "Energetic Gujarat" has been held regularly since 2003. The last forum was held on January 11-13, 2013, bringing together 50 thousand investors from 120 countries. The Russian delegation, consisting of half of the businessmen, was headed by the Chairman of the Government of the Astrakhan region K. A. Markelov.

However, N. Modi's fascination with expensive mega-projects hinders the development of social programs. The most significant of these projects was the construction of a dam on the Narmada River with a height of 121.9 m and a main channel with a length of 458 km. The estimated cost of the work done in 2008/2009 is $7.9 billion. The approximate date of completion of construction is 2025. ⁸ Another major project promises to be the commissioning of two factories of the automobile giant Maruchi-Suzuki. Construction of the first line began in 2013. The total investment volume will reach $5 billion by 2020.

And the quality of life of Gujaratis leaves much to be desired. Chronic malnutrition affects 48% of the population in rural areas and 39% in urban areas. Every second child under the age of five has a weight deficit. The rate of anemia in married women is 55%, in pregnant women-61%, in children under 5 years of age-70%. 44.9% of children aged 6 to 13 years do not attend school. Between 2001 and 2010, 9,829 workers, 5,447 farmers, and 919 landless peasants committed suicide.⁹

Of India's 8 megacities with a population of over 5 million, Ahmedabad is perhaps the most polluted. On the left bank of the Sabarmati River in the old city, slums have reappeared. There are a lot of poor people on the streets, which is especially striking when comparing Gujarat with Kerala, where the author visited on the eve of his last trip to Gujarat.

Unlike Gujarat, Kerala lacks a major industry. Traditional industries are based on the processing of agricultural raw materials-coconuts (coir and copra fiber), cashew nuts, spices and spices. This South Indian state does not have its own oil and gas. Mineral resources are represented by coastal sands containing zircon, rutile and ilmenite.

The quiet life of small seaside towns that breathe the spirit of history, golden beaches, colorful festivals and picturesque harbors framed by palm trees make Kerala a resort oasis. Tourism revenue here is one of the highest in India and is equal to 21% of the local regional gross product (RVP).

Kerala has a population of 33.4 million (2011 census). The average life expectancy is the highest in the country - 74 years (in Gujarat - 64 years), with the lowest rates of anemia, child and maternal mortality. This state has a record literacy rate of 93.9% (in Gujarat-79.3%), and the most reading in India. It has the highest average daily wage in the country - 600 rupees (approximately $9.7) in the city and 319 rupees in rural areas. There are ¹⁰⁶ phones per 100 people, compared to the Indian average of 78.10. These achievements are directly related to the radical agrarian reform, effective measures in the field of education and health, and the successful implementation of various social programs. They were developed and implemented by parties of the left orientation and the Left Democratic Front coalition, which formed local governments intermittently in 1957-2011.

Even the maharajas of the Travancore principality, on the basis of which the state of Kerala was formed in 1956, gained fame as enlightened rulers. They built schools, roads, and hospitals. On the eve of India's independence in 1947. Travancourt ranked first in terms of literacy. In 1834, the first English school appeared there, in 1873 - a college, and in 1937 a university was opened. Numerous schools belonging to the Christian Church, which is very influential in Kerala, also contribute to the development of education.

Today, 17% of the state's working-age population works in the oil-producing Gulf countries. Their income ranges from 23% to 30% of Kerala's RVP. This is an unprecedented event in the history of regional economies of the Republic of India ¹¹.

In Kerala, even taxi drivers have a decent command of English. In the administrative center of Thiruvananthapuram and on the road to Cape Kanyakumari, the author did not encounter a single slum. Of course, there are quite a few problems here, too. Kerala has the highest percentage of unemployed people with higher education and significantly fewer female politicians than in the north of India. Local media are sounding the alarm about the alcoholization of the population, the growth of prostitution and suicide.

BATTLE OF GUJARAT

Despite the fact that the Gujarat Legislative Assembly elections were held at the same time as the elections in the North Indian state of Himachal Pradesh, the state headed by N. Modi was in the focus of public attention. Central newspapers referred to this event as the "Battle of Gujarat".

The main political rivals - N. Modi and the BJP, on the one hand, and the INC and its president Sonia Gandhi and Secretary General Rahul Gandhi, on the other-carefully prepared for the confrontation. The current Chief Minister and his team have done a particularly large amount of work. The election campaign was actually initiated by his "good will" hunger strike in Ahmedabad on September 17-19, 2011. It became the starting point of his "mission of belonging", aimed at mitigating religious-communal and caste contradictions and harmonizing social relations. In addition to Ahmedabad, similar hunger strikes were held in all major cities of the state.

On September 11, 2012, on the eve of the 150th anniversary of the birth of a prominent thinker and public figure in India, Swami Vivek-panda, the spiritual teacher of N. Modi, he launched a mass youth march. It covered almost the entire territory of the state and was accompanied by rallies, demonstrations, exhibitions and competitions in volleyball and cricket. The skirmishers were 400,000 volunteers wearing T-shirts with Swami Vivekananda's portrait on the chest and N. Modi's portrait on the back.

According to the Times of India newspaper, from December 1 to December 15, 2012, N. Modi spoke at 285 rallies, i.e. an average of 19 times a day. At the same time, his back, throat and legs were swollen ¹². The Chief Minister's rallies were held in the evenings and resembled rock concerts with screaming young fans wearing idol masks. The crowd was attracted not so much by sympathy for the BJP as by Modi himself , the new political star and symbol of Gujarat. His appearance on the podium in a scarlet turban and a traditional blue jacket trimmed with pieces of mirror mica caused a flurry of emotions. The leitmotif of all the speeches of the Chief Minister has always been the achievements of the state and pride in them. In some cases, he focused on providing the population with uninterrupted electricity, in others-on the advantages of drinking tap water, and in others-on creating a record number of new jobs. The speeches ended with a call to cancel the INC's presence in Gujarat and vote for N. Modi: "Don't pay attention to your candidate in the district. I am your candidate for all 182 seats. Please vote for me." "Yes, I don't have a family of my own. No son, no daughter, no brother, no sister. My family is you, 60 million Gujaratis. " ¹³

In addition to young people, Modi's mainstay is considered to be representatives of the urban middle class, as well as a significant part of the female half of the electorate, who idealize his image and manners. So, in the city of Surat there is a club that unites 75 thousand people. his fans. They all wear orange saris , the BJP's color. What's new in his campaign is the use of state-of-the-art technologies, including a cable TV channel and holographic projections played simultaneously in 24 cities.

Sonia Gandhi arrived in Gujarat on October 3, 2012. Unlike in the 2002 and 2007 elections, when she accused Modi of instigating Hindu-Muslim pogroms, this time his economic policies came under fire. In particular, she stated that the unfinished canal had left many farms in the Kathiawar Peninsula (Saurashtra) without water, and voiced several populist Congress projects involving the transfer of vacant land plots to the rural poor, the construction of cheap apartment buildings in cities, etc. ¹⁴

In December 2012 Sonia and Rahul Gandhi once again visited the troubled rural areas of Gujarat. According to Congress leaders, the" anti-people " government of N. Modi protects only the rich and has squandered the money allocated by the center to help backward tribes and castes. From their point of view, Modi's success is a "myth". As an example, R. Gandhi cited the state's performance on such social indicators as low calorie intake and high infant mortality. He called Modi a "merchant" who had established his own dictatorship, and pointed out that there was no democracy in Gujarat, the birthplace of Mahatma Gandhi, whom he, i.e. R. Gandhi, reveres as his guru. ¹⁵

N. Modi did not remain in debt and not without sarcasm remarked: "If Gandhi is your guru, you should remember his last order to the congressmen-to dissolve the Congress." He joked that it was no coincidence that Sonia Gandhi included a visit to the pilgrimage centers in Dakora and Sidhpur in her Gujarat tour, because the INC leaders had accumulated many sins.¹⁶

A WIN, BUT NOT A CONVINCING ONE

The elections in Gujarat were held in two stages from 13 to 17 December. These days were declared days off. More than 1,600 candidates contested 182 parliamentary seats.

Meanwhile, the streets of Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar testified, rather, to the political indifference of the population. Putting up propaganda posters and leaflets on the walls of buildings and along roads was prohibited, banners advertised goods and services. Only hysterical TV reporters and brand-new jeeps decorated with party symbols and photos of nominees were reminded of the elections.

The first surprise of the election was a record turnout. It was 71.3% against 59.8% in 2007 and 61.5% in 2002. This is higher than the national average of 50-55% ¹⁷.

But the main sensation of the election was that the BJP won only 47.9% of the vote and 115 out of 182 seats, although Modi did not hide the fact that he was claiming 75% and 136-137 seats. ¹⁸ In 2007, the BJP was supported by 49.1% of voters (117 seats), and in 2002 - 49.9%. (127 seats). The BJP won in South and Central Gujarat, respectively, with 51.6% and 50.5% of the vote, collected 45% in Saurashtra against 37.2% for the INC, and was defeated in North Gujarat, where it lost to the INC by a small margin-43.7% against 44.4% of the vote.¹⁹ Of the 7 failed ministers of the Modi government, 5 lost their parliamentary mandates in this region. The urbanized part of the electorate voted for Modi and the BJP. In the five largest cities of the state - Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Surat, Bhavnagar and Rajkot - the BJP won 40 out of 44 seats. Its success was ensured by the support of the overwhelming majority of voters aged 18 to 39 years.

Congress received 38.9% of the vote, and now it has 61st place in the legislature. INC had 59 seats in 2007 and 51 seats in 2002. "INC is entitled to see itself as a winner," said the current Indian Finance Minister, P. Chidambaram.²⁰ Congress was favored by backward agrarian districts. He still has influence in the tribal area. Out of 27 reserved seats-

He won 16 seats for registered tribes. The BJP was supported by officially registered and state - recognized low castes-10 out of 13 seats. Muslims who had previously voted for the Congress were now divided in their sympathies.²¹

The fact that 19% of candidates won with an advantage of less than 5 thousand votes testifies to the intense struggle for deputy mandates. Out of 35 such seats, INC won 22 and BJP won 12. [²²]

Speaking to supporters after the first election results were announced, Modi called them "heroes" and promised not to make mistakes in the future. "People have not forgotten the poison of the caste politics of the 1980s, they have risen above regionalism, casteism and communalism* and voted for development," he stressed.²³ Modi delivered his speech in Hindi, the language of Northern India and the National Capital Territory of Delhi. The crowd greeted him with chants of " PM! PM!", i.e. " Prime Minister!"

Reports from Gujarat in those days invariably began with the words: "Next stop - Delhi", "Finish in Delhi in 2014", " Narendra Modi or Rahul Gandhi?", etc.

YOUTH VS. MATURITY

INC's main hope, Rahul Gandhi, is 43 years old. He is a fifth-generation member of India's most famous political dynasty. His great-grandfather Jawaharlal Nehru, grandmother Indira Gandhi, and father Raja v Gandhi were already prime ministers. After the failed attempt of his mother, who is of Italian descent, to take the chair of the head of government, he was called upon to continue the family tradition. In 2004 and 2009.

Rahul was a Member of Parliament from the Amethi Constituency (Uttar Pradesh), served as General Secretary of the INC from 2007 to 2012, and as its Vice-President since January 2013. He has established himself as a champion of the rejuvenation and democratization of the Congress and the reform of society and the political system, taking into account national characteristics. He has chosen the image of the "prince of the poor": he dines in valley canteens**, often visits tribal areas, supports the idea of quotas for Muslim voters in Uttar Pradesh. He has no administrative experience yet. Feels obvious discomfort when attending large public events. We depend on numerous Expert Advisors. Easily makes decisions that shift the responsibility for which onto the shoulders of others. Intelligent, outwardly friendly, but secretive and inaccessible to communication. Its political image is still being shaped.

Narendra Modi is 20 years older than his rival. As a child and youth, he helped his father sell hot tea on the station forecourt. In 1970, he joined the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (Union of Voluntary Servants of the Nation), or RSS, the most influential organization of Hindu nationalism. In 1985, he was transferred to work in the BJP. From 1998 to 2001, he served as General Secretary of the BJP and party Press Officer, then became Chief Minister of Gujarat. An energetic administrator. Tends towards authoritarian leadership. He is not afraid to do what he thinks is right, even if it goes against the line of his party. Tries to combine Hindu community with regional identity. Unassuming in his personal life. Open for contacts. His name does not leave the pages of newspapers and magazines all the years of his tenure.

However, N. Modi has many political opponents, and not only in the Congress and OPA. He is described as a "fascist" and is accused of being involved in organizing religious and communal riots that engulfed Gujarat in early March 2002 after a mob of Muslim extremists attacked a train carrying Hindu pilgrims at Godhra station. The Supreme Court has already dismissed several lawsuits, finding no evidence of a crime in the actions of the Chief Minister.

In March 2013, Prakash Karat, General Secretary of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), said that the Left Front parties were opposed to the candidacy of N. Modi for the post of Prime Minister. Mayawati, chairman of the backward Bahujan Samaj Porti Party, and Nitish Kumar, leader of the Jai'ata Dal (United) Party and Chief Minister of Bihar, are also taking the same position. The latter enjoys the support of the local Muslim community, is an ally of the BJP and is part of the NDA. The loss of the Janata Dal (united) will have serious consequences for the alliance, as Bihar nominates 40 MPs to Parliament, and Gujarat - 26.

Some of his associates are also capable of upsetting Modi's plans. First of all, we are talking about the current chairman of the BJP, Rajnath Singh. On January 23, 2013, he again became the head of the party, replacing Nitin Gadhari. Like his predecessor, he is considered a protege of RSS chief Mohanrao Bhagwat. This is the person that the RSS would like to see at the head of the Government of India. Rajnath Singh is 62 years old. He is a native of Uttar Pradesh, a physicist by training. 2000-2002 He served as Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh and as Chairman of the BJP from 2005 to 2009. He is careful in his statements and actions. He is a keen observer of Modi's ascent, but unlike Gadhari, he is able to engage in dialogue with him. To the question about poly-

* Communalism - religious nationalism that identifies a nation and a religious community, and is extremely hostile to other confessions (editor's note).

** Dalits - in the past-untouchables (editor's note).

The Chief Minister of Gujarat invariably responds to critical complaints: "Narendra Modi is a popular and capable leader. The decision on the candidate for the post of Prime Minister is made at a meeting of our parliamentary faction. We followed this tradition from 1996 to 2009 and intend to continue it. " ²⁴

The biggest figure in the BJP remains the leader of the parliamentary opposition, Lal Krishna Advani. At 86, he is a master of coalitions and complex political games. Hinders the reform and rejuvenation of the party. He highly appreciates the success of Gujarat and considers it the only state free from corruption. He is the figure to whom N. Modi is ready to give way. To this end, he is obliged to recognize the role of mentor that Advani played at the beginning of Narendra's political career. Advani has so far refrained from supporting Modi's candidacy for the BJP premiership in September 2013.

Modi's relationship with the leadership of the RSS subsidiary Vishwa Hipdu Parishad (World Council of Hindus), which acts as a curator of the Hindu community on a global scale, is frankly difficult. The reason for the breakup was the order of the Chief Minister to demolish 250 temples built in Gandhinagar by members of the organization without permission. After criticizing Gujarati farmers who steal state electricity, Modi gained detractors in the ranks of the Bharatiya Kisan Sangh (Union of Indian Peasants), and by introducing English in schools, he turned Vidya Bharati( Indian Education) and other affiliated organizations of the RCC against him.

Nevertheless, N. Modi still has big trump cards in his hands. In addition to the Gujaratis who voted for him in 2002, 2007 and 2012, these are Indian youth who are seeking change and career growth and are dissatisfied with the dominance of bureaucracy, corruption and the threat of terrorist attacks.

Its supporters include middle-class people in India who have been influenced by the ideology of Hindu nationalism, and farmers who have successfully blended into market relations. It is significant that N. Modi is supported by well-known leaders of big business, participants of the "Energetic Gujarat" summits-Ratan Tata, Kumar Mangalam Birla, Gautam Adani, Mukesh and Anil Ambani, Anand Mahindra and others. He has developed business relationships with leaders of regional parties such as All India Anna Dravida Munetra Kazhagam (Tamil Nadu), Akali Dal (Punjab), Shiv Sena (Maharashtra), Asom Gana Parishad (Assam) and others.

N. Modi's reserves include special attention to his person from the registered castes due to the low socio-caste origin of the Chief Minister of Gujarat. The traditional occupation of the Ghanchi caste, to which he belongs, is the production and sale of vegetable oil and other foodstuffs.

Immediately after his re-election in Gujarat, Modi delivered a speech in February 2013 to a large audience of students and faculty from the Commercial College of the University of Delhi. "India is destroyed by the politics of vote manipulation. Today, it needs a development policy, " ²⁵ he said, and illustrated his thesis with Gujarat's achievements. This time, N. Modi did not allow himself to attack the Congress, its leaders and the OPA, and seduced ambitious young people with promises of worthy competition with China in economic and other areas. While he was speaking, a crowd of his political detractors gathered outside the university. Their ardor was cooled by water cannons and bamboo sticks of the police.

A sophisticated politician, experienced, ambitious and purposeful, Narendra Modi is very popular. He will not turn from the chosen path. One gets the impression that only Modi can stop him. But Congress is not going to give up either. According to the Indian opposition and experts, the party's strong political move was the adoption by Parliament of the law on food aid to malnourished Indians proposed by the government of M. Singh. And those (with an income of less than $2 per day) in the country, according to the World Bank, are 800 million, or 2/3 of the population. This means a monthly ration of 5 kg of wheat or rice at a price 7 to 10 times lower than the market price.²⁶

At the same time, Indian dissatisfaction is caused by a significant slowdown in the country's economic growth and the depreciation of the Indian rupee, caused by the instability of the global economy and the outflow of capital from emerging market states.

The struggle on the political front in India is escalating.

¹ Choosing Modi was a winning decision: Jaitley //The Hindustan Times, 15.09.2013.

² India Today, 4.02.2013.

³ Ibidem.

⁴ The Times of India, 25.01.2013.

⁵ BJP will emerge as single largest party in LS polls: Survey // Ibid., 7.09.2013.

⁶ Frontline, 6.04.2012.

⁷ State of India's Livelihoods. New Delhi, 2012, p. 60; The Sunday Express, 18.09.2011.

⁸ Front line...

⁹ The Indian Express, 4.02.2011; Frontline, 7 - 20.05.2011; Outlook, 10.12.2012.

¹⁰ Census of India. Provisional Population Totals. New Delhi, 2011, p. 110; Economic Survey 2011 - 12. New Delhi, 2012, p. 310 - 311; Seminar. September, 2012.

¹¹ Seminar...

¹² The Times of India, 16.12.2012.

¹³ Outlook, 24.12.2012.

¹⁴ The Hindustan Times, 4.10.2012.

¹⁵ Ibid., 12.12.2012.

¹⁶ India Today, 31.12.2012.

¹⁷ Ibidem.

¹⁸ The Times of India, 19.12.2012.

¹⁹ Ibid., 22.12.2012.

²⁰ Ibid., 21.12.2012.

²¹ Frontline, 11.01.2013.

²² Ibid., 22.12.2012.

²³ Ibid., 21.12.2012.

²⁴ The Indian Express, 29.01.2013; Outlook, 4.02.2013.

²⁵ The Hindustan Times, 7.02.2013.

^{MacAskill Andrew} 26 and Pradhan Bibhudatta. India Extends Food-for-Poor Program as Singh Eyes Poll Advantage // Bloomberg, 3.07.2013.

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