I. O. ABRAMOVA

Candidate of Economic Sciences

Africa Institute

Keywords: Arab revolutions, political Islam

On December 6, the Institute of Africa of the Russian Academy of Sciences hosted a round table on "The Arab Spring: Dialectic of the Objective and Subjective" as part of the Academic Council meeting.

The main report was delivered by the Deputy Head of the Department. Director of the Institute of Africa of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Economics, Professor L. L. Fituni. He noted that the Arab Spring is one of the most important turning points in the recent history of the region." He considers its main results at the global level: the expansion of the international positions of political Islam; point "energy emissions" outside the region; the emergence of a new vector of confrontation "NATO-antiNATO "("West-East" in a new configuration), a further decline in the role of African countries and their organizations (Afrosoyuz). as an independent international political force; bringing new actors to the forefront (Turkey); indirectly stimulating mass movements in Western Europe and the United States, which have a different primary basis, but are inspired by the Arab example.

At the regional level, the main results of the "Arab Spring" were: a sharp acceleration of socio-political processes in North Africa and the Middle East; increased regional instability; change of political regimes; strengthening the position of political Islam; deterioration of the economic situation; strengthening the positions of the monarchies of the Arabian peninsula. L. Fituni elaborated on the dialectic of subjective and objective, endogenous He also gave his own assessment of the discussion on the correlation of internal and external factors in the Arab revolutions, noting that the role of the external factor in forming objective prerequisites in each country is minimal, in forming subjective conditions is quite significant, and in ensuring the fall of regimes is decisive.

L. Fitouni believes that the reasons and prerequisites for what is happening lie in the Arab societies themselves and their problems. Revolutionary actions in the region cannot be explained by the influence of just one factor, external or internal. The speaker also described the main technologies and methods of managing the protest potential, which played a huge role in the victory of the opposition.

The report aroused great interest and was accompanied by an active scientific discussion. It was attended by: prominent Arabist economist, Head of the Department of International Economic Relations of the Moscow State University ISAA, Doctor of Economics, Professor V. A. Melyantsev, one of the leading Russian Arabists, Chief Researcher of the Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Economics, Professor V. A. Isaev, HSE lecturer L. M. Isaev; and employees of the Institute of Africa of the Russian Academy of Sciences: K. I.N., senior researcher S. Bobokhonov R. S., Deputy Head of the Department. Director of the IAfr RAS, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor I. O. Abramova, Head of the Department. Center for the Study of North Africa and the Horn of Africa, Candidate of Economic Sciences A. A. Tkachenko

Commenting on L. Fituni's report, V. A. Melyantsev noted that Middle Eastern societies will have to solve a lot of accumulated problems related to the inefficiency of their economic and institutional systems, because they, unlike the fast-growing East Asian and South Asian states, do not fit well into the promising growth models of the XXI century. Based on his own calculations, he convincingly demonstrated that the Arab states as a whole are far behind a number of other regions (and some Muslim countries, such as Malaysia, Turkey, and Indonesia) not only by the dynamics of per capita GDP, aggregate productivity, the scale of export ennoblement and the level of innovative development of the economy, but also by the degree of accountability of the authorities and respect for basic human rights (including women), civil liberties, and the legitimacy of the authorities.

V. A. Isaev stressed that the events in the Middle East are based on a serious struggle for political and economic influence between three regional centers of power - the oil monarchies of the Persian Gulf led by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, which claims a leading role in the Greater Middle East region, and Iran. He also noted that almost everyone is active in the region - the United States, the EU, China, India and other countries. Only the Russian Federation stands on the sidelines and watches how these games will end, losing the remnants of its influence in the Arab countries. According to V. A. Isaev, a paradigm shift in socio-political and economic development is taking place in the Middle East, and the results of the" Arab Spring " can be both popular unrest and revolutions in other Middle Eastern states, as well as regional military conflicts, in which various countries, as well as political, military and economic groups can be involved.

HSE lecturer L. M. Isaev shared his impressions of a recent trip to Syria, where he met with both official authorities and opposition figures. He stressed that the real situation in this Arab country is significantly different from the picture that foreign media draw in the public consciousness.

R. S. Bobokhonov noted that the victory of various Islamic parties in the elections in the countries affected by the revolutionary events is actually a foregone conclusion.

Irina Abramova stressed that the revolutionary events in the North African states broke the traditional paradigm of the EU migration policy in the African direction, when the Maghreb countries, primarily Libya, were considered by Europeans as a kind of "safety cushion" in relation to the flows of migrants from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe.

A. A. Tkachenko analyzed the internal causes of the Arab revolutions, including the lack of" social elevators " for young people, whose share in the population of Arab states exceeds 50%.

From the editorial office. Following the results of the round table discussion, a series of articles will be published in the next issues of the journal.

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