Egypt Keywords:, Constitutional Declaration, Mohammed Morsi. The Muslim Brotherhood

A. M. VASILIEV

Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences

D. I. VINITSKY

Our sobkor in Cairo

Two years after the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak's regime in the January 25 revolution, Egypt continues to attract the most intense attention, resembling in its unpredictability either a raging volcano or, rather, a theater of operations. Numerous victims - dozens of dead and hundreds of wounded-have already become a necessary consequence of the endless demonstrations of opponents and supporters of the regime.

With heavy fighting in the country's political and economic fields, the new authorities, represented by the Muslim Brotherhood, have to win back the right to rule the largest state in the Arab world. They are trying to prove their worth and moderation to the whole world, but at the same time they do not give up their goals, which are still poorly understood by the world community. This struggle is accompanied by the redrawing of the state institutions of the Pyramid Country that have been created for decades to suit their interests and goals, and attempts to prevent an economic collapse.

Another milestone in this process was the adoption of a new Egyptian constitution, which will go down in the country's history as the Constitution of 2012.

I haven't read the text of the constitution, but I want stability to return to Egypt." This phrase of a street vendor in Cairo clearly demonstrates the mood with which the majority of participants in the national referendum on the Basic Law came to the ballot boxes. The referendum itself in the Country of Pyramids was held in a two-round format unusual for world political practice-on December 15 and 22.

Of course, the longing for stability is not the only factor that stimulated 17 million people, who were more active out of 52 million registered and eligible to vote, to stand in long queues to put a "tick" in the red or blue circle of the voting bulletin. However, it proved to prevail and helped tip the scales in favor of approving the constitution.

According to official data announced by the head of the Central Election Commission of Egypt, Samir Abu al-Maaty, the draft of the new constitution was supported by 63.8% of voters (10 million 693 thousand), voted against -36.2% (6 million 61 thousand). Dry statistics show that the turnout was 32.9%. In reality, this figure hides many things: the political amorphousness of Egyptian society, a significant mass of which is made up of illiterate poor people, the fear and intimidation of minorities, and the weakness of political forces in mobilizing the electorate.

Nevertheless, we can say with complete confidence that the majority of Egyptians were tired of the uncertainty and instability of the "time of troubles" and hoped that the new constitution would be the starting point for normalizing the internal political situation and starting socio-economic changes. This is perhaps one of the main reasons why the population did not take into account the controversial provisions of the Basic Law, even though it largely meets the interests of the Muslim Brotherhood in power.

It is based on the 1971 Constitution adopted under Hosni Mubarak. The document contains 234 articles, the most controversial of which were Articles 2 and 219, which contained references to the norms of Sharia (Islamic law) in the initial version.

Article 2 was preserved in the wording that has existed for the last 40 years: "The provisions of Sharia are the main source of legislation", with additions in the following article, Article 3, stating that the civil and religious affairs of Copts (Christians) and Jews living in Egypt, as well as the election of their spiritual leaders, will be regulated in accordance with the law.-

legal norms of these confessions. However, the Islamists conceded in this, and put their wording through Article 219, which boils down to the fact that the principles of Sharia law in their law enforcement practice include the general data of the fundamental rules and rules of jurisprudence.

The article on education also causes no less controversy and a wide field for favorable interpretation. On the one hand, the Constitution guarantees all citizens the right "to receive quality education, which is free at various stages in State educational institutions." At the same time, primary education is mandatory. On the other hand, the text prescribes "all public and private educational institutions to follow public curricula and goals, as well as to ensure a link between education and the needs of society and production," which makes Egyptian education directly dependent on the goals and current interests of the ruling elite of the state.

Under the new constitution, the President must first enlist the support of Parliament and the National Defense Council, which includes representatives of the country's highest military command, as well as civilians, in the event of a declaration of war. Under Mubarak, only the approval of the legislature was sufficient.

The Basic Law limits the term of the presidency to 4 years with the right of one-time re-election. However, this provision was spelled out in the constitutional declaration adopted by the army after the January 25 revolution and later repealed by Mohammed Morsi. The previous Constitution provided for a 6-year term of presidential office with the right to unlimited re-election. Separately, the document specifies the term of service of the Prosecutor General - also 4 years. From now on, he will be appointed personally by the head of state.

Of course, the constitution is the basis for any state and makes it possible to form social foundations. However, in Egypt, the referendum on the basic law and the events that preceded it can refute this truth, since they clearly demonstrated a new phenomenon in Egyptian political life - the split of society along religious and political lines. There is clearly a clear line that divided the Egyptians into two camps: Islamic (we use this term, since the concept of "Islamist" has a purely political connotation, although it will be used later in the text. - Author's note), whose representatives are actively consolidating their power and using any means for this; and secular, whose supporters are trying to prevent the establishment of a new dictatorship in the country, possibly tougher than the regime of Hosni Mubarak overthrown 2 years ago.

IS MORSI'S CONSTITUTIONAL DECLARATION A CHALLENGE TO SOCIETY?

The most recent political crisis in Egypt in 2012, and perhaps the most widespread since the January 25 revolution, broke out on November 22, when President Mohamed Morsi, a representative of the Muslim Brotherhood Association (ABM), issued his Constitutional Declaration aimed at limiting the powers of the judiciary. Contrary to the existing laws at that time, he dismissed the Prosecutor General Abdel Magid Mahmoud, during which a criminal court decision acquitted a group of Mubarak - era functionaries in one of the most significant episodes of the revolution-the "battle on camels"case. In addition, Morsi has locked in all branches of government, while simultaneously granting his decisions immunity from judicial review. In fact, the country's judicial system, which has historically enjoyed the greatest public trust, was isolated, and the president cleared the field for more extensive political maneuvers.

In addition to the declaration, the President issued a new "Law on the Protection of the January Revolution", which provides for the beginning of repeated trials against those responsible for the murder of demonstrators during the January 25 revolution, as well as those who provoked attacks on protesters, participated in torture and abuse of them. This decision actually unleashed a campaign of persecution and harassment of functionaries of the deposed regime, many of whom retained their positions in state structures.

These unprecedented and highly risky decisions have provoked strong opposition from secular forces and even some groups and individuals who associate themselves with political Islam.

"The president has undermined the notion of statehood and legitimacy, usurped power by proclaiming himself the viceroy of God on earth and calling himself the new Pharaoh," said Mohammed ElBaradei, former head of the IAEA and leader of the Dostur (Constitution) party. "This is a blow to the revolution, which can have the most unpredictable consequences."

In turn, Amr Moussa, who heads the Egyptian Congress party, warned: "The country is on the verge of serious destabilization. Egyptians will not accept a new dictator, new unrest is possible." He stressed that the country " is entering a phase far from democracy and the rule of law."

According to Ahmed Shafiq, the former head of government and Morsi's main rival in the 2012 presidential election, the president completely disregarded the rule of law. "What Morsi has done has not happened in Egypt's history since the days of colonialism," he argued. "The president has undermined the foundations of power and squashed all authority, making himself the absolute ruler, thus insulting the nearly 90 million Egyptians who witnessed his greed."

A strong reaction followed from the judicial authorities. In protest, judges across the country went on strike. The Supreme Court stated that " the decrees of the head of State are unprecedented in their attacks on the freedom of the court and the judiciary.

his decisions." The country's Constitutional Court has begun considering the possibility of impeaching the president for violating the oath of office and undermining the constitutional foundations of the state.

The situation escalated with each passing day. It is worth noting that Morsi's decision was announced against the backdrop of three days of clashes between aggressive young people and law enforcement forces on Mohammed Mahmoud Street, adjacent to the At-Tahrir square.

The rally, organized in memory of the victims of the tragic events of late November 2011, when more than 40 people were killed in riots, quickly turned into a prolonged standoff as soon as the crowd began to try to break through to the Interior Ministry building located here, and the police were forced to use tear gas in response. Therefore, the decree issued by the president had the effect of adding oil to the fire. At-Tahrir immediately appeared banners "Entry" to the brothers "forbidden" and portraits depicting the faces of Morsi and Mubarak in half, with the caption - "Mohammed Morsi Mubarak" (the cartoon collage was combined with a play on words in the names of two presidents-Mohammed Morsi and Mohammed Hosni Mubarak. - Approx. author's note). All approaches to the square were blocked by metal barriers.

Similarly, events unfolded in other cities. In Alexandria, Suez, Assiut, Ismailia, and Port Said, protesters attacked the headquarters and offices of the Freedom and Justice Party (PSP), the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood Association. Many of them were burned. The number of victims in the clashes went to dozens.

The authorities did not expect such a turn of events and were not fully prepared for them. The official representative of the presidential administration, Yasser Ali, tried to explain that the expanded presidential powers are "temporary", and the Constitutional Declaration itself is designed to "exclude the politicization of the judicial system" and punish those responsible for corruption and other crimes committed during the previous regime. At the same time, he called on political forces to engage in dialogue.

However, as it turned out, the authorities were not going to make any concessions. "The country has embarked on the path of freedom and democracy. We are moving forward, and no one will block our path, " President Morsi said in an address to his supporters a day after the publication of his decrees. "I do my duty to please the Almighty and the motherland, and I make decisions after listening to everyone." Commenting on the decisions taken the day before, granting him exclusive powers, he said:: "I appeal to all Egyptians who oppose and support me, those who have long suffered from corruption, dictatorship and injustice. I am on the side of the people and their will, and I am not going to settle scores with anyone with the new declaration. It is not directed against anyone and does not discriminate against anyone."

"I have never sought and do not seek to usurp the legislative power," he said. "However, I promised that I would intervene if I saw our homeland in danger. And that's exactly what I did."

According to the president, his decrees are aimed at" stabilizing the social, political and economic "life of the country,"in order to preserve the homeland and achieve the revolution, which no one will stop." The Head of State recalled "the difference between real revolutionaries and criminals who are hired, including with the money of corrupt officials, to attack state institutions." "We cannot allow this, and we will bring those who incite riots for hard currency to justice within the framework of the law."

"We have already achieved some of the goals of the revolution, but others have yet to be achieved," Morsi said. -And I urge everyone to look not at their own feet, but forward, because we all want a great future. I will guarantee the independence of the executive, judicial and legislative branches of government. After all, only through laws and statehood can we move Egypt forward. " ¹

The president's statement, which millions of Egyptians listened to with bated breath, did not live up to expectations and did not become a turning point in the direction of detente. Rather, on the contrary, it was perceived as an admission of everything that Morsi had done and what he was actually accused of. His opponents met the speech with indignation and demands to leave the presidential post. A wave of mass protests and riots began to spread across the country, the number of victims in the first three days alone exceeded 500 people. Against this background, the head of state's advisers resigned one by one. Sakina Fouad, a well-known publicist, explained this step most emphatically: "The Constitutional Declaration raises many unanswered questions. I accepted this post to be useful to the country, but when it became clear that the president did not need the advice of his assistants, I realized that my continued presence there was pointless."

UNITY AMID A SPLIT

However, the "Morsi declaration" had another side: it proved to be the missing stone in the foundation of unity between the liberal democratic and secular forces of Egypt, which only a few weeks earlier appeared to be divided, competing parties and movements. They announced the formation of the National Salvation Front, which united the opposition under the collective leadership of the most prominent leaders: the head of the Egyptian Congress party, former presidential candidate Amr Moussa, another former presidential candidate who now heads the Egyptian National Movement, Nasserist Hamdeen Sabbahi, and the influential politician mentioned above, Mohammed al-Baradei. In addition, Abdel Moneim Aboul Futuh, a moderate Islamist who was "expelled" from the Mentors ' Office of the Muslim Brotherhood Association, also expressed his intention to join the liberals.-

leading the party "Strong Egypt".

"There would be no happiness, but misery would help" - the contradictions and disagreements that prevented the Egyptian liberals, socialists, Nasserists and smaller political forces from attracting enough electorate to participate in the parliamentary elections in the fall of 2011 were relegated to the background, and the opposition rallied against a common enemy. Although a month before these events, numerous analysts, experts and observers unanimously claimed that there was a deep disunity of the opposition forces, rivalry and competition between the leaders, and considered the very idea of unification to be hopeless.

Nevertheless, on November 24, they held their first joint meeting, where they tried to work out a plan of action or, rather, counteraction to the "presidential arbitrariness". In the most general terms, he was voiced by X. Sabbahi, who said there would be no dialogue with Morsi until the Constitutional Declaration was revoked. "We will talk to a real president, not a demigod,"he said, adding that the opposition will organize a" march of millions " on November 27.

Further developments have confirmed that the united opposition is indeed a powerful force, capable in fact of attracting funding, organizing the masses and holding the largest protest demonstrations since the January 25 revolution, which threatened to escalate in scale and intensity into a new uprising. It is possible that the opposition leaders counted on this, believing that they had a chance to "bring down" the regime.

The goal and venue of the demonstrations were chosen - the presidential Palace "Ittihadiya" in the Heliopolis district of Cairo. Initially, dozens, and according to some estimates, several hundred thousand opponents of Morsi began to gather in At-Tahrir Square. The main demands of the demonstrators were: the cancellation of the Constitutional Declaration, the formation of a new commission to create a constitution that would meet the interests of all Egyptians. "Down, down with the president," the crowd chanted. - "Down, down with the power of Murshid" (meaning the supreme mentor of the Muslim Brotherhood, Mohammed Badia, who, as many believe, is behind many political decisions). Independent commentators even on the pages of the media, not to mention conversations on the streets and in cafes, discussions on social networks, openly pointed out that Morsi is only fulfilling the will of the ABM Mentors ' Bureau. The role of the "gray cardinal" and the main steward of the fate of Egypt was assigned to Badia and his deputy Kheyrat Shatyr.

Lamis al-Hadidi, a well-known publicist, journalist and host of the Capital program, said in the studio of the Egyptian news channel CBC: "What is happening now in Cairo is not a revolution, but an uprising." "This is an uprising aimed at restoring respect for the law, and this is a direct message to President Morsi that he should hear so that the country does not end up torn apart by civil war," she said.

HAS THE ARMY GONE TO THE BARRACKS?

Last August, just days after his inauguration, President Morsi dissolved the Supreme Council of the Egyptian Armed Forces, which had ruled the country since the revolution, and retired its head, Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, as well as the Chief of the General Staff, General Sami Anan, giving himself legislative power. This first high-profile decision of the head of state caused a wide resonance in society, but its echoes subsided quickly enough, since there were no statements or counteractions from the army.

According to many observers, the authorities made a deal with the military, requiring them not to interfere in the internal political process and in return promising not to touch purely military affairs and military-controlled businesses, and, just as importantly, not to bring the generals to criminal responsibility. A new Minister of Defense, Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, who was previously the head of military intelligence (at the same time he was known for his ties to the United States), was appointed, according to the press, close in views to the ABM. And the army, as the "popular revolutionary masses" demanded, returned to the barracks and went about its professional duties. It seemed that the military had virtually disappeared from active political life: until December 2012, the media only occasionally reported on the activities of the military in Sinai and everyday combat training.

Therefore, the statement of the ^second official representative of the Ministry of Defense, made on December 8 at the peak of tension between the two opposing camps, had the effect of a bomb exploding. It was obvious that it came as a complete surprise both to the secular opponents of the new regime, although they may have counted on it, and to the authorities, with whom this demarche, apparently, was not coordinated. "The armed forces are monitoring the ongoing events with increasing concern," the statement said. - The situation threatens to devour the foundations of the Egyptian state and national security. The armed forces are responsible for protecting the highest interests of the country, its vital institutions and the interests of ordinary people." The military called on the opponents to engage in dialogue, emphasizing that " this is the best and only way to reach a consensus." "Rejecting it will lead us into a dark tunnel that may end in disaster, which we will not allow!"

According to retired General Mahmoud Khalaf, the statement is"a message to all political players." "This is an appeal to all forces, parties and movements to find a compromise and promote national dialogue," he said. "It makes it clear that the military can step in if the crisis gets out of hand." At the same time, he emphasized: "The army clearly wants to stay

it will be left out of politics, but it will have no choice but to act actively if national security is threatened. " ³

The military did not limit itself to a statement. Just a few days later, the Defense Minister invited all sides "to a national unity dinner as a sign of love for Egypt." El-Sissi indicated that the talks will not be of a political nature. "We'll just sit down together as Egyptians," he said.

Although the meeting never took place, each side hastened to interpret the "army demarche" in its favor. ABM spokesman Mahmoud Gozlian welcomed the statement as a demonstration of support for the President. Supporters of the secular forces, on the contrary, stressed that this is a warning to Morsi and Islamists that the army is ready to do everything necessary to restore security and stability. Independent commentators, meanwhile, concluded that "this verbal intervention" may indicate an exchange of" friendly signals " between the army and the opposition.

The presidential administration reacted very quickly and very nervously to the invitation of the Minister of Defense. Presidential spokesman Yasser Ali said that the head of state is already engaged in a dialogue with various political forces and does not intend to attend this meeting. "There is only one initiative of the national dialogue, and it has already been announced by the president," he said.

This suggests that it is still too early to write off the army that is supposedly closed in barracks from the political arena of Egypt. It is also obvious that such a controversial situation has initiated misunderstandings or, rather, significantly fueled the degree of tension and mutual distrust between the army command and the presidential team, read the Muslim Brotherhood. At the same time, experts close to military circles say that the overwhelming majority of the generals, led by the Defense Minister, prefer to stay away from the escalated internal political differences, not supporting the president in finding a way out and reconciliation with the opposition, but also not helping the latter in its struggle against the new authorities.

AND THE REST OF THE SECURITY FORCES?..

The actions of law enforcement agencies can also not be described with absolute certainty as protecting the interests of the authorities and the state. They were harshly criticized by the ABM for not doing enough to prevent attacks on the offices and representative offices of the Muslim Brotherhood and its political wing, the Freedom and Justice Party (PSU). It is known that 28 PSS offices were burned down in various provinces, including the main headquarters of the Association, which was opened with pomp after the revolution in the capital's Mukattam district. ABM representatives even demanded that Interior Minister Ahmed Gamal ed-Din be put on trial "for refusing to protect ABM representative offices from attacks."

It would seem that two weeks ago, in the events on Mohammed Mahmoud Street, the Ministry of Internal Affairs behaved harshly, without ceremony, used special means to disperse the crowd, and suddenly such irresponsibility and complete inaction to prevent criminal actions. However, a deeper look through the political lens explains a lot. In November, the police defended state institutions and countered mass crimes, pogroms and outrages of a heated crowd, mostly young people led by militant Ultras football fans. The events at the Ittihadiya Palace were exclusively political, and they fully fit into the framework of a civilized or, as it is called in Egypt, democratic opposition struggle. Even when columns of Islamist supporters of Morsi approached the palace area, provoked and then attacked the opposition, the police did not use force, only tried to divide the opposing sides, putting a human shield between them.

Nevertheless, many experts assess the actions of the police and law enforcement agencies as highly verified. On the one hand, they prevented the clashes from escalating into uncontrolled riots, and on the other hand, they were able to avoid serious accusations of sympathizing with one or another of the parties.

JUDICIAL POWER

A representative of the Supreme Court called the presidential decrees " Unprecedented in their attacks on the freedom of the court and its decisions." On the same day that the President announced his Constitutional Declaration, an emergency meeting of the Supreme Council of Judges (SCJ) was called amid outraged statements about "undisguised interference of the President in the work of the judiciary and undermining its foundations." "We are not going to be silent, and our response will be tough," was their first reaction. "Morsi's encroachments on the judiciary are unacceptable." Following the meeting, it was decided to suspend the work of courts of all instances. Across the country, judges began to go on strike, refusing to go to work. The well-functioning mechanism of the judicial machine failed.

Egypt's Constitutional Court has begun examining the possibility of impeaching the president for violating his oath of office and undermining constitutional foundations. The Administrative Court accepted for consideration a claim against the Constitutional Declaration in order to cancel it, despite the ban of the head of the country on appealing "any of his declarations and decisions issued since taking office on June 30 this year."

Morsi tried to take steps to meet the judges halfway and held consultations with representatives of the SCC. However, again, contrary to expectations, it was stated that no amendments to the Constitutional Declaration will be made, although the representative of the presidential administration, Yasser Ali, on the eve of the zas-

Denmark noted that Morsi remains committed to the independence of the judiciary and will avoid any confrontation with the executive branch.

As a result, the president was unable to enlist the support of lawyers, who, stating the failure of the meeting, revealed its details. The conversation lasted only 30 minutes, after which Morsi left, and Vice-President Mahmoud Mekki and Justice Minister Ahmed Mekki remained to convince the judges. But they did not manage to persuade their "colleagues in the shop" to their side. This is clearly confirmed by the decision of the Egyptian Club of Judges, a professional organization of lawyers in the country, to boycott the referendum on the draft constitution and not send its representatives to monitor the voting process.

However, not all the servants of the Egyptian Themis agreed and were ready to follow the loud protest statements. As soon as the first emotions subsided, one after another "special" statements began to appear, which clearly demonstrated the heterogeneity of the multi-thousandth judicial community. Despite the failed outcome of negotiations with the president, the Supreme Council of Judges still made a "divisive" decision to delegate its representatives and members of the Prosecutor General's Office to monitor the people's will under the new constitution. According to local political scientists, the sense of duty and responsibility for the fate of the country, and for their own future, prevailed in the leadership circles of the supreme judicial authority, which controls the work of the entire judicial power.

The fact is that various Islamist organizations did not fail to take advantage of the judicial protest, which hastened to express their readiness to send their observers to the referendum. Imams of mosques and theologians from the Union of Preachers of Egypt declared their " readiness to fulfill this historic mission in place of judges." It is worth noting that most of the representatives of this union, which, according to some estimates, includes about 55 thousand people, are active members of the ABM. The Judges ' Movement in Defense of Egypt, a non - governmental organization made up entirely of Islamists, also expressed a desire to monitor the voting process.

As noted by the media, the decision of the SCC to take the entire referendum process into its own hands and prevent fraud and violations was an unspoken deal with Morsi, who gave guarantees not to apply his Constitutional Declaration in the future.

The authorities did not let the situation in the judicial corps get out of control and gradually pushed its governing bodies to "make the right decision". As one of the leaders of the PSU, Ahmed Abu Baraka, said in an interview with the Al-Ahram newspaper, "if the judges boycott the national referendum on the constitution, the president of the country has the right to involve lawyers, university professors and other members of the public who are able to do their work impartially in monitoring the will of citizens."

THE PRESIDENTIAL DECLARATION IS NOT ONLY A CHALLENGE, BUT ALSO A CALCULATION

In the current complex, contradictory and chaotic environment, President Mohamed Morsi and his team seem to have shown the greatest composure. Analyzing the actions of the country's leadership circles, local experts agreed that the government deliberately risked destabilizing the situation in order to reverse the prolonged stagnation of the political process, and, "under the guise" of pushing through the much-needed adoption of the constitution, move on to a new stage-the formation of a full-fledged parliament, where the "brothers" expect to maintain or strengthen their positions.

While the opposition, choking on threatening rhetoric, planned and organized mass protests and disobedience, the Supreme Constitutional Commission was given a clear instruction to complete its work by the end of November and submit the draft basic law to the president. The fair expectation that representatives of secular forces would refuse to participate in the work of the constitutional commission "in the heat of demonstrations" was fully justified. Of the 100 members of the commission, 28 representing the opposition declared a boycott of its activities. However, this did not prevent the remaining majority from quickly agreeing on all the technical details and publishing the final draft of the constitution live on Egyptian television on November 30, which was submitted to the president for approval on the same day. Morsi's decision to hold a nationwide referendum was scheduled for December 15.

According to the already predictable practice, this statement caused a new, even larger-scale criticism and protest actions. For three days and nights - from December 4 to 6 - a new revolution seemed to have begun in the country, as Egypt had not seen such a massive gathering of people, fierce clashes, intransigence and readiness to go to the end since February 2011. This time, secular and liberal parties chose the presidential palace "Ittihadiya"as the main object of the demonstrations. Their main demands were the cancellation of the Constitutional Declaration and the postponement of the referendum.

Hundreds of thousands of dissatisfied people filled the streets and squares adjacent to the presidential complex. Of course, with such an influx of people, the demonstration, which was supposed to be a peaceful action, could not but turn into riots, which did not do without victims and victims. Only according to official data of the Ministry of Health, five people were killed and more than 600 received various injuries. The prosecutor's office reported seven dead.

As before, the geography of the confrontation was not limited to Cairo. The headquarters and representative offices of ABM and PSS in virtually all provinces were attacked. In skirmishes, opponents and supporters of the new government were used

your arsenal: from sticks and rocks to molotov cocktails and firearms. Cars, shops and public buildings were on fire. Many residents of houses caught in the "war zone" left their homes and sought refuge with relatives and friends in safer areas. The moment came when even the Egyptian security forces wavered, calling what was happening near the presidential palace a "civil war".

Only after the intervention of the Presidential Guard and the deployment of armored vehicles around Ittihadiya did the intensity of the struggle begin to subside. However, leaders on both sides, realizing the critical nature of the situation, tried to make deterrent efforts. The crisis culminated in President Morsi's December ⁶ national television address to the nation4, in which he called on all political forces to engage in a comprehensive dialogue, but at the same time made it clear that he did not intend to back down from his plans and decisions. "We must start a dialogue that will unite the nation, put an end to division and confrontation," the head of state said. "We will discuss the election law and the post-referendum road map."

"The Constitutional Declaration published on November 22," he continued, " remains a guarantee of stability in the country. Threats to national security were the main reasons for its publication." According to Morsi, " the declaration will automatically end with the announcement of the results of the national referendum, regardless of whether the people accept the new constitution or not." If the population rejects the draft of the future Basic Law of the country, the head of state promised to establish another commission that will " start working on the constitution anew."

The president's address again provoked the anger of the opposition, who immediately rejected calls for dialogue. "Morsi has forgotten that he is an elected president who came to power with the support of the revolutionary forces," said his opponents, who listened to the president's speech in At-Tahrir Square. "The Islamists are now trying to intimidate the people and force us to accept their tyranny by defending their legitimacy through violence and armed attacks on protesters." One of the leaders of the National Salvation Front, Mohammed al-Baradei, said that a full-fledged dialogue will not work: "We are in favor of a dialogue that is not based on the policy of twisting hands and imposing fait accompli." He was supported by Nasserist Hamdeen Sabbahi: "We will not extend a hand to the one who caused the death of the Egyptians." "Yesterday we demanded the cancellation of the Constitutional Declaration and the postponement of the referendum, today we demand the resignation of the regime," he stressed.

However, the peak of the confrontation was over, and passions began to subside, although the tense state of society was almost palpable. Unable to maintain a high level of mass protest either ideologically or financially, and faced with the determination of the Islamists, the secular forces "went with the flow" and concentrated on the upcoming referendum. This was clear, even though it was unprecedented in the Pyramid Country, although it was more populist than realistic, when revolutionary committees and youth movements seized the administration building of the city of Al-Kubra Mahalla in Gharbiya province and declared "independence from the Islamist regime."

This move in the 450,000-strong city, located 100 km north of Cairo, is symbolic, as the city is considered the cradle of the Egyptian revolution. It was here that the April 6 opposition movement was born in 2009 and the first major anti-government protests took place. Soon, the initiative of the "separatists" of Al-Mahalla al-Kubra was picked up in neighboring Al-Mansour.

However, the authorities, sensing the weakness of their rivals, consolidated their success with another step. The President annulled his Constitutional Declaration of November 22 and issued a new one, which fixed the date of holding a referendum on the draft constitution - December 15. It became clear that the Islamists were confident of success. The referendum was held.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS ARE ONE

In November 2012, the International Monetary Fund published its annual Regional Economic Outlook report, ⁵ stating dispassionately that the impact of the Arab Spring will have a direct impact on the economies of most Middle Eastern and North African countries struggling to cope with high inflation and rising unemployment. At the same time, the IMF experts stressed that economic growth and stability in each of the countries of the region in 2013 will depend on the improvement of the political situation. "Growth is expected to remain below long-term trends, while the unemployment rate is expected to increase due to the ongoing anaemia of external demand, high food, fuel and commodity prices, regional tensions and political uncertainty," the report concludes.

How objective are the global lender's assessments of Egypt, which attracts close attention from politicians, economists and the media around the world?

Millions of Egyptians pinned their hopes on the popular uprising of 2011 , the January 25 revolution that brought down the authoritarian regime of Hosni Mubarak. They expected that the revolution, dubbed the "date revolution" by some of the world's media, would open the way for them to significantly improve their living conditions, financial situation, and social status. Most people naively believed that tens of billions of dollars taken abroad by corrupt officials would be returned to Egypt, and then these funds would be divided "among all".

However, these hopes are turning faster and faster every day-

turn into a mirage in the desert. According to the Nielsen Global Online Consumer Confidence Index, in the third quarter of last year, Egyptians ' concern about the economy increased by 31% compared to the previous quarter. ⁶ Most residents believe that the country's economy is in recession. In this regard, more and more ordinary people on the streets express dissatisfaction with the new authorities, accusing them of failing to cope with the steadily deteriorating socio-economic conditions, periodic fuel crises, the slow slide of the Egyptian pound and, as a result, rising prices. All of this adds up to a very worrying picture of the deterioration in the overall standard of living of the nearly 85 million people, a quarter of whom, according to official figures from the Egyptian Bureau of Statistics, are poor, and more than 4.8% live in extreme poverty.⁷

The Egyptians ' fears are not unfounded. They are shared by many independent experts and analysts, describing the economic situation in the country in very gloomy tones. For example, former Egyptian Finance Minister Samir Radwan spoke about a serious financial crisis that the country could fall into if serious measures are not taken in the very near future to save the economy, which is collapsing due to a decline in production, lack of confidence from foreign economic partners and, as a result, lack of investment in national projects. "Foreign investment in Egypt, "Radwan said in an interview with Al-Arabiya TV," is at zero." In unison with it, the comment of Hussein Sabbour, chairman of the Association of Egyptian Businessmen, which unites more than a thousand of the country's largest industrialists, is heard.: "All new investments in Egypt are frozen. It seems that the situation is out of control all over the country."

Indeed, the Egyptian economy has suffered greatly since the start of the January 25 revolution. Although real GDP growth, according to the IMF, still amounted to 1.8% at the end of last year, revenues from tourism, which is considered the main source of replenishment of the state treasury along with the Suez Canal, have sharply decreased. Foreign investors, spooked by instability and uncertainty, have frozen projects. Foreign companies operating in the country were forced to curtail their activities due to constant strikes of workers.

The current fiscal year also started very hard. According to official government figures, the budget deficit reaches 140 billion YEG. pounds (more than $23 billion). Many observers, however, estimate this figure at no less than 170 billion pounds (more than $28 billion). Total debt reached 1.3 trillion pounds (about $215 billion) by the end of last year. GDP growth was lower than expected and continues to negatively affect the implementation of the president's promises to create 500 thousand new jobs. Unemployment is rising. The country's gold and foreign exchange reserves fell to $15.03 billion in December 2012. and they show a tendency to further depletion, experts of the investment house Beltone Financial stated. These forecasts are also confirmed by the data of the Egyptian Central Bank, according to which, in November 2012 alone, reserves decreased by $449 million, even despite the transfer of the third Qatari tranche of $500 million to the Central Bank.

Against such an unenviable background, a serious decline in the Egyptian pound rate began in January 2013. On January 31, it was sold at exchange offices in Cairo against the US dollar at a rate of 6.7: 1, although two months earlier this ratio was 6.1:1. "Currently, there is a strong demand for US dollars, and no one can predict how high it will reach in the coming days and weeks." - said Izzat Abu Zeid, executive director of the Egyptian exchange.

The pound has been losing ground over the past two years. However, it was in December that the exchange rate curve went down sharply. Only in the first ten days of the last month of 2012, the Egyptian currency fell by 0.6%. For comparison, according to the observations of the Egyptian financial advisory group Pharos Holding for Financial Investments (PHFF), since January 2012, the overall decline was 4.4%. Economists attribute this, among other things, to the reluctance or, rather, inability of the Egyptian Central Bank to support the exchange rate of the national currency by injecting additional dollar mass into the market, which it simply does not have.

The financial company Beltone Financial assumed that if the IMF loan ($4.8 billion) was allocated, the value of the Egyptian pound could stabilize at 6.2: 1. However, it predicted that without the loan and the expected subsidies from other parties after it, the exchange rate would fall by another 15% and by the second half of this year it would pass the mark of 7 pounds for 1 US dollar.

PHFI experts, in turn, raised the risk of a possible fall in the pound from "low" to "medium" if the deal with the IMF does not take place. "We will review the risk level to 'high' if no agreement is reached in early 2013," they cautioned, "and to' extreme ' if the deal is pushed back indefinitely."

Meanwhile, the United States recommended that the Egyptian authorities postpone the deal with the IMF until January, after the Egyptians failed to agree on all issues and adopt new tax legislation in order to fulfill part of their obligations to the world's main lender to increase taxes on a number of goods and eliminate a number of subsidies.

The IMF officially confirmed the receipt of the relevant request from Cairo, but did not disclose details, indicating only that internal instability is behind Egypt's request. "In light of the ongoing changes in the country, the Egyptian authorities have asked to delay their loan request," the fund's representative said in a terse comment. For many years, the IMF has been demanding that Egypt's economy" recover".-

in exchange for subsidies for flour, oil, and fuel, which put a 20-billion (in dollars) burden on the budget. The authorities may raise the price of subsidized high-octane gasoline for expensive cars. But any increase in the price of cheap flatbread or vegetable oil will cause a predictable social explosion.

Egyptian authorities were expected to return to negotiations after the constitution was approved in a referendum that economic experts believed would help restore popular confidence in Morsi and his government.

However, political forecasts proved to be untenable in contrast to economic calculations. The worst of them were confirmed when the Central Bank of Egypt reported on February 5 that in just one month from December 2012 to January 2013, the country's gold and foreign exchange reserves decreased by $1.4 billion. - from $15.01 billion. up to $13.61, and this amount will last no more than three months to maintain the economic viability of the state.

Without urgent help, Egypt will face even more difficult times. Aid is coming in from the Gulf's rich oil monarchies. But it, as the Egyptians put it, "allows you to keep your nostrils above water and no more." Egypt's rich neighbors do not want the country to start choking and plunge into chaos, but they are not going to do more. Europe is in crisis and ready to bail out Greece or Portugal, but not Egypt. The United States, whose political concerns in this region are mainly in the Persian Gulf region, is biding its time, strengthening political contacts with the Muslim Brotherhood.

* * *

The Muslim Brotherhood democratically took power in the largest Arab country by population and does not want to give it up. In response to violent and overemotional demonstrations of the opposition, the brothers are taking hundreds of thousands of their supporters to the streets. At the same time, they are strengthening their "administrative resources". "Brothers" means "Ikhwan" in Arabic. The term "ikhvanization" of the state apparatus and state media is already in use. Ten provincial governors, where the results of the presidential elections were unsuccessful for the "brothers", were removed. In their place are figures who are loyal to the organization. If ministers are not members of the ABM, they are surrounded by advisers - "brothers" with broad powers. The new" pro-Irvan " heads of state TV channels and newspapers impose their opinions on employees, most of whom are secular - minded journalists who, however, do not want to lose their jobs. The population is convinced that the main victory of the January 25 revolution is the possibility of a return to "pure Islam", and that social and economic problems are the result of the machinations of the Giaours, Zionists, agents of the West, and all the enemies of Islam. Following the Qur'an and the Sunnah of the Prophet Muhammad, you can overcome all difficulties. Internet Youth, which was the catalyst for the January 25, 2011 revolution, is deeply disappointed and speaks of a " committed revolution." Its liberal, pro-Western values are being overlooked by the majority of Egyptians. The results of the referendum on the new constitution, despite the low turnout, generally reflect the current mood in the country:two-thirds are in favor of the Islamic project for the development of society, and one-third are against it. The parliamentary elections will show to what extent this balance of power will continue.

Despite the seemingly chaotic development of events, it is now possible to trace the logic of the authorities ' actions aimed at overcoming the prolonged political crisis that did not suit them.

First, the president issued an unprecedented Constitutional Declaration, which provoked protests and diverted the opposition's attention from the main thing-the approval of the draft new constitution. In the shortest possible time, the debate in the Supreme Constitutional Commission, which lasted almost since March 2012, was "successfully completed", and despite the demonstrative boycott by secular forces and the Coptic Church, the document was adopted and submitted to the head of state for approval.

Then Morsi, confident of the support of the majority of the population, called a national referendum, which, on the whole, justified the hopes of the Islamist forces and gave them the opportunity to move forward - to hold parliamentary elections, try to improve the work of state institutions, stabilize the economy and go further... This "further", unfortunately, remains very vague. It seems that Egypt (and not only Egypt) is still waiting for many surprises that will be brought in the future by an increasingly solid political Islam.

We should not write off the opposition, which, even if it failed to dismiss the current government, united and significantly strengthened its political positions, demonstrating itself to be a force that is not passive and deserves closer attention from both Egyptians and external players. Egypt's secular traditions are deep and cannot be uprooted overnight.

Now all that remains is to watch what both camps will do on the political battlefields, and whether they will be able to win or conclude a truce before the inexorable economic factor puts all their ambitions on the verge of collapse.

¹ All the above statements of M. Morsi are based on the materials of ITAR-TASS.

² http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/News/580/-/-.aspx What lies beneath ³ Там же.

⁴ http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/l/64/59974/Egypt/ Politics-/Egypts-Morsi-calls-for-talks, -stresscs-constitutio.aspx

⁵ Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook -

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2012/mcd/eng/mrco 1112. htm

⁶ http://dailynewsegypt.com/2012/11 /07/nielsen-egyptians-con-cern-over-the-economy-rose-by-31 -per-cent-from-q2/

⁷ http://wwwl.youm7.com/News.asp?NewsID-818140&SecID =24&IssueID-0

Permanent link to this publication: