A. M. VASILIEV

Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences

D. I. VINITSKY

Our sobkor in Egypt

Keywords: Egypt, Russia, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Vladimir Putin, visit, relations

Russia and Egypt are linked by a complex of historically developed political, economic relations and diverse humanitarian ties. The significance of Egypt for Russia is determined by its role as one of the leading political, economic and cultural centers of the Middle East and North Africa, as well as the vast Islamic world. Sea, land and air communications of international importance run through the territory of the Arab Republic of Egypt (ARE).

Cooperation with Egypt meets Russia's interests in one of the most important geopolitical regions in the Middle East, which is located close to our southern borders. Based on this, cooperation between the two countries will contribute to ensuring the stability of Russia's position in the Islamic world, creating favorable conditions for the development of Russian regions with Muslim populations, maintaining and strengthening Russia's position in the global oil and gas market, in the strategically important market for Russian agricultural and high-tech products, and exporting goods and services within the- Technical cooperation, in the aerospace field, etc.Russia has extensive and significant ties with Egypt in the humanitarian sphere-through international tourism, the large Russian community in this country, and cooperation between the Christian and Muslim faiths.

For the effective implementation of the goals and objectives of Russian foreign policy, it is essential to coordinate the international activities of Russia and Egypt on the basis of coordinated inter-ministerial consultations on the issues of the UN, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the League of Arab States, the African Union, the Forum of Gas Exporting Countries and other reputable international organizations.

In fact, since the" June 30 revolution " of 2013, information about the imminent visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Cairo has been spreading with increasing intensity in Egyptian society.

This event was eagerly awaited in Egypt, numerous rumors "walked" in the press and overgrown with "details" in coffee shops... However, the first accurate information appeared only on January 25 of this year after the publication in the newspaper "Al-Yaum Al-Sabia", which, citing" informed sources in Moscow", reported that the head of the Russian state will visit Egypt on February 9-10, ¹. From that moment on, not a day passed without TV reports, interviews, newspaper notes and articles, and expert presentations on Russian-Egyptian issues. There is no doubt that Egypt attached great importance to the upcoming visit, attaching great hopes and expectations to it.

"Stability has long been a distinctive feature of Egyptian-Russian relations, and at this stage we would like to give them a boost in order to further develop cooperation between Egypt and Russia," Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al - Sisi said in an exclusive interview with TASS ahead of the visit. "President Putin's visit confirms these intentions on the part of both Cairo and Moscow." ²

"Egyptians appreciate the fact that Russia once supported Egypt, especially if we talk about the built enterprises, in particular, the High-rise Aswan dam, textile factories, a metallurgical plant, and provided military assistance. This is what remains in the memory of the Egyptians, " the president explained. - In recent months, the position of President Putin, who supported Cairo in the fight against terrorism, has proved particularly valuable. He is aware of the real state of affairs in our country - on such a pony-

The material was prepared with the participation of A. A. Tkachenko, A.V. Karataev, L. M. Isaev in the framework of the Russian Science Foundation project N 14 - 18 - 03615 - "Russian policy in the Middle East: opportunities and limits of cooperation with the countries of the region".

mania and we need to build our relations in the future."

Noting that Egypt seeks and feels an urgent need for cooperation with the whole world, el-Sisi stressed: "And in this regard, we need to make every effort to achieve our goals and realize our dreams. And, what is important, your president shares the aspirations of our people and does everything possible to promote progress in this direction. " ³

Separately, it is worth noting the factor of personal sympathy and mutual respect between the two leaders. It seems to play a significant role in international contacts in general and in Russian-Egyptian relations in particular. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said that he considers his Russian counterpart "an outstanding person." "Putin has done a lot for Russia during the 15 years of his leadership, he has to face many challenges, but he is a strong person and makes a strong impression," the Egyptian leader stressed. "Russia has done a lot for Egypt, we believe in it and want your country to live in prosperity and security." "Russian and Egyptian Presidents Vladimir Putin and Abdel Fattah al-Sisi have developed good personal relations," Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said. "The presidents of both countries have developed a very good chemistry, and they like each other." According to Ushakov, the heads of state "talked a lot" during previous contacts.⁴

Earlier, Putin and al-Sisi met twice - in February and August of last year. The first time al-Sisi came to Moscow was when he was defense minister. Then he only announced his intention to run for president. The second visit took place in Sochi, where the warm welcome and meetings of the two heads of state "without ties" obviously contributed to the strengthening of friendly relations between them.

WARM WELCOME AND FRUITFUL COMMUNICATION

Maintaining the emerging friendly trend in relations, el-Sisi personally came to meet Putin at the Cairo airport, where the two heads of state held a brief one-on-one conversation. A motorcade then took the leaders of Egypt and Russia through streets decorated with portraits of Vladimir Putin and signs reading "Welcome" in Arabic, Russian and English to the Cairo Opera House, which is described as one of the largest opera and ballet theaters in the Middle East and Africa. The opera orchestra greeted the two leaders with a fanfare of the fourth movement of Sergei Rachmaninoff's Symphony No. 1. The gala concert program also included Dmitry Shostakovich's festive overture "Get Up, Russian People" and "Alexander's Entry into Pskov" from Sergei Prokofiev's Cantata "Alexander Nevsky", as well as the fourth act of the ballet"Swan Lake". The cultural part was continued by informal communication between Putin and al-Sisi during a joint dinner.

The second day of the visit began for the Russian president with a meeting with Patriarch Theodore II of Alexandria and All Africa, during which attention was paid to humanitarian cooperation and "cooperation with Christians in Egypt in the struggle for common moral values and ideals." Putin noted that for centuries Russia has developed special relations between representatives of different religions based on mutual respect. "I know that the current leadership of Egypt takes the same position," the president stressed. "I hope that by acting together in this way, by practicing this approach to relations between people and representatives of different religions, we will join forces together in the struggle for our common moral values and ideals," the Russian head of state said.⁵

Then there were official talks between the leaders of the two countries and the signing ceremony of bilateral agreements, the significance of which Egyptian experts did not overestimate, but did not seek to belittle.

Thus, according to Mohammed Abdel Kader Khalil, an expert at the Al-Ahram Center for Strategic Studies, the growth of Russian-Egyptian relations is vital for both sides, especially given the events taking place in the Middle East. ⁶ This factor pushes Cairo to reconsider its foreign policy interests in order to overcome the period of ups and downs that have characterized bilateral relations over the past decades, he stressed.

In his opinion, despite the fact that some elements of the cold war have begun to return to the region, "the general stated desire is related to the need to expand opportunities for maneuver, stop the idea of" cold "relations in times of peace and" hot "relations in times of war, and confirm that the deepening of partnership is not related to the idea of "cold" relations.convergences of protest" in order to stand up for-

western powers led by the United States, whose multilateral ties with both countries do not negate, however, the presence of manifestations of growing tensions."

Perhaps one of the most relevant outcomes of Putin's visit to Egypt was the agreement to build a nuclear power plant in Dabaa. It was signed by the head of Rosatom Sergey Kiriyenko and the Minister of Electrification and Renewable Energy of Egypt Mohammed Shaher. In accordance with this document, the Russian company Rosatom will build 4 nuclear power plants in northern Egypt using a new post-Fukushima technology, each of which will produce 1,200 MW of electricity. What is especially important for Egypt, the agreement provides for comprehensive cooperation, including Russian financial support in the form of an interstate loan.

It is worth recalling that both countries already have experience of cooperation in the nuclear sphere. Since 1961, two light-water research reactors built with the help of Soviet specialists have been operating in Inshasa, 40 km northeast of the Egyptian capital.

According to Mohammed A. K. Khalil, Egypt will receive significant benefits from cooperation with Russia in the nuclear field.⁷ In particular, according to him, along with the high competitiveness of Russian projects, there is an agreement on the participation of Egyptian specialists in the production of reactors, which even provides for the participation of an atomic scientist from EGYPT in the development of blocks. The Russian side also does not object to the transfer of certain aspects of nuclear technology and training of highly qualified personnel to Egypt. This issue, the analyst notes, was excluded by other potential foreign applicants for the construction of the first Egyptian nuclear power plant, whose significant restrictions did not provide for the transfer of experience beyond the maintenance and maintenance of reactors.

Another very promising area in Russian-Egyptian relations is military-technical cooperation. Here, in addition to the historical aspect, Khalil considers it necessary to take into account the existing modern legislative framework, in particular, the strategic partnership agreement signed since 2009. In addition, it is important to take into account that current transactions and cooperation between the two countries have not stopped in recent years, especially after Cairo adopted the strategy of "gradual normalization of military relations" with Russia in the mid-1990s, which made it possible to bring the level of Russian-Egyptian cooperation in the field of military-technical cooperation to the 2nd place after the.

The expert also recalls that about 30% of weapons and military equipment in the Egyptian army are Russian/Soviet-made and many samples require modernization, and Russia, in addition to supplying weapons, does not exclude the Egyptian military from gaining technological experience and training specialists. And finally, the cost of military needs plays an important role for Egypt in determining partners: the difference in the cost of Russian weapons compared to Western models, he points out, reaches 40-50%.

Indeed, real steps have been taken to deepen Russian-Egyptian military cooperation since mid-November 2013. Moscow has offered Egypt state-of-the-art weapons, including helicopters, MiG-29 fighter jets, anti-aircraft missile systems, and Kornet anti-tank missile systems. Military expert Talaat Musallam noted that Cairo and Moscow signed cooperation protocols when al-Sisi was still defense minister.⁸ At the same time, a joint committee was created that coordinates the actions of the parties and monitors the implementation of the agreements.

One of the signs of mutual interest in military cooperation was a gift copy of the AK-47 assault rifle, which the Russian president presented to his Egyptian counterpart. At a joint press conference, the two leaders talked about the need to strengthen military-technical cooperation, but refrained from mentioning any specific details. Demonstrating an interest in developing ties, "Cairo and Moscow are careful not to alienate third parties, especially Americans," Egyptian publicist Ahmed Al-Aba notes in this regard and cites T. Musallam's statement: "Egypt is not talking about a shift in its arms procurement strategy, but about arms diversification." ⁹

There is no doubt that military-technical contacts and arms transfers are most closely linked to the fight against terrorism, which Egypt has recently faced directly. We are talking about the Ansar Bayt Almakdis group operating in the Sinai Peninsula, for an operation against which the Egyptian army has been using a significant number of troops and assets for more than a year, and about a new threat from Libya, where in response to the execution of 21 Coptic Egyptians by Islamic State militants, Egypt launched several aerial rocket attacks.- bomb attacks.

It is obvious that the Egyptian president attached special significance to the statement that " Russia and Egypt stand side by side in the confrontation with terrorism... We have confirmed our clear commitment to stand shoulder to shoulder against modern challenges, including terrorism, " el - Sisi said after talks with the Russian president. "We also noted that the fight against terrorism should be conducted in all directions, including in the ideological field and in the socio-economic sphere." ¹⁰

The international agenda of the talks between the two presidents also included discussions on the situation around Iraq, Libya and Syria. Putin and al-Sisi confirmed their desire to find a way out of the crisis. The two sides "agreed to coordinate efforts in this direction, "an Egyptian diplomatic source told Al-Ahram newspaper. ¹¹" The problem is that while we intend to somehow connect the Assad regime to a final political settlement, we will not go as far as our Russian friends in trying to save Assad." he added.

At the same time, Mohammed A. K. Khalil still notes the existence of a Russian-Egyptian consensus on the methodology for resolving the Syrian crisis. This, in his opinion, was reflected in the elections held in January of this year.

conferences of the Syrian opposition in Cairo and Moscow. "Their common focus was confirmed in the final documents, which called for a broader forum of the Syrian opposition that would unite all its spectra," the Egyptian expert explained. At the same time, he believes that Putin's visit to Cairo will significantly contribute to the coordination of tactical steps that are necessary to deepen cooperation in both bilateral and multilateral formats.¹²

LONG-TERM ECONOMIC COOPERATION IS THE FOUNDATION OF RELATIONS

The economic aspect is currently a matter of primary importance and is put by Cairo at the forefront when discussing the prospects for developing relations with other countries. Russia is no exception to this rule.

One of the important results in the economic sphere was the agreement reached on the creation of a free trade zone between Egypt and the Eurasian Economic Union, as announced by President ARE al-Sisi. The parties agreed to form a working group to coordinate all the details. Its first meeting should be held in Cairo in April, and by the end of the first half of the year, as stated by the head of the Ministry of Economic Development A. Ulyukayev, the first results of the work will be reported ¹³. At the same time, work will begin on the creation and development of a Russian industrial zone in the Suez Canal area. The relevant agreement was documented in the memorandum of understanding on attracting investment and participating in the construction of facilities in Egypt, which was signed by A. Ulyukayev and the Minister of Investment of Egypt Ashraf Salman.

The head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) K. Dmitriev and Minister A. Salman signed a memorandum of understanding on the development of investment cooperation. According to the agreements reached, RDIF will support the Egyptian Ministry of Investment at all stages of the creation of the Arab Republic's investment fund. Joint work will be carried out on the formation of the fund, its management structure, investment strategy and implementation of the co-investment model. The RDIF will also help attract other international investors to its work, using its own experience in creating country partnerships with the world's leading sovereign wealth funds.

The parties also focused on strengthening and developing cooperation in the tourism sector. "It is important for us to support Russia in reviving tourism activity in our country and further encouraging tourism to the Red Sea resorts," President al - Sisi said in ^this regard14.

Nevertheless, despite such serious plans and ambitious long-term projects, the future of bilateral economic relations does not look so bright. The main reason for this, according to Egyptian economic experts, is the current situation around Russia: European and American sanctions, falling oil prices, an attempt at international political and economic isolation of Moscow.

Thus, according to Hussein Suleiman, an expert on economics at the Al-Ahram Center for Strategic Studies, the negative effect may negatively affect the prospects for the development of Russian-Egyptian trade relations in the investment sphere.¹⁵ "Despite the desire shown by the Russian side last year to invest in the Egyptian economy, the decline in oil prices and the resulting decline in state revenues may to some extent hinder these efforts," the Egyptian analyst believes. Another dangerous factor, according to him, is the impact of the economic crisis in Russia on the tourist opportunities of Russians. H. Suleiman notes that Russia is currently the main partner of Egypt in the field of tourism. However, the decline in the ruble exchange rate led to a sharp increase in the cost of goods and services, primarily tourist ones, for Russian citizens, which caused a noticeable decrease in demand.

WHAT ABOUT THE US?

"Egypt views Russia as a strategic asset in its quest for a balanced foreign policy relationship," President el-Sisi said after meeting Putin on May ¹⁶. This phrase, if correctly interpreted, completely coincides with repeated statements by Egyptian officials that rapprochement with Russia will not take place at the expense of "other international relations." contacts", directly indicating that we are talking, first of all, about the United States. "Egypt and the United States are strategic partners and will remain so, as strengthening the partnership is in the interests of both states," Al - Ahram writes, citing an Egyptian government spokesperson.¹⁷

Commenting on the results of the session

After Putin's visit to Cairo, the well-known diplomat Al-Seyed Amin Shalabi, who currently heads the Egyptian Foreign Affairs Council, notes:: "The question now is how Washington will respond to the new level of Russian-Egyptian cooperation, and how this will affect Egyptian-American relations." ¹⁸

When Egypt first began to develop relations with Russia, US statements were laced with distrust and skepticism. Similar rhetoric was continued in the assessments of the results of Putin's talks with al-Sisi in Cairo. State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki, in particular, said with ostentatious indifference that the United States would not oppose the Russian-Egyptian memorandum of understanding on the construction of a nuclear reactor in Egypt ¹⁹. At the same time, she declined to comment on the agreement between Moscow and Cairo in the future to replace the dollar with the ruble in bilateral trade settlements.

While U.S. officials have shown restraint, analysts and New World experts have been more outspoken. Some of them have written that Moscow is pushing the United States out of the Middle East, comparing this process to the United States ' exclusion of the USSR from contacts with Egypt and peace diplomacy in 1979.: "Who lost Egypt?", and condemn Obama for alienating the new regime in Egypt and suspending the supply of weapons and military equipment at a time when Cairo desperately needs them to fight the terrorist threat. Still others see Putin's visit as a signal that both Moscow and Cairo will no longer tolerate external pressure and interference in their politics.

Amin Shalabi notes that Putin's visit to Egypt comes at a time when the United States is escalating its standoff with Russia over the Ukraine crisis and stepping up economic sanctions in an effort to isolate it internationally. However, according to him, the visit of the Russian president to Egypt, one of the key countries of the Middle East, along with his trips to China, India and Turkey, clearly demonstrates to Washington that Russia cannot be isolated.

The Egyptian diplomat has no doubt that the results of the visit will be the subject of close discussion in the American "corridors of power" - the White House, the National Security Council, the State Department, the Pentagon and Congress, since they all adhere to different approaches to developing relations with Egypt.

In this regard, he expects two possible reactions. The first is from those who argue that Egypt is entering into an alliance with Russia at a time when the United States is putting pressure on Cairo to support its position on Ukraine. The second is from those who believe that Egypt still remains useful to the United States on key issues, such as the Suez Canal, providing its airspace for overflights by American aircraft, maintaining peace with Israel and fighting terrorism.

Anticipating the obligatory question from the Americans whether Egypt will fulfill its obligations in these areas, the Egyptian diplomat emphasizes that, as repeatedly stated earlier, the expansion of international contacts will not take place at the expense or to the detriment of other forces. Cairo will continue to maintain close relations with Washington based on mutual respect and interests.

* * *

Thus, it can be noted that Russian-Egyptian relations are currently going through a new stage, a stage of mutual interest, ambitious hopes on the part of Cairo and optimistic assessments on the part of Moscow. "There is political will, "Al-Ahram Weekly quoted an unnamed Egyptian diplomat as saying. "The skepticism felt by Russians about Egypt's commitment to renewing its strategic partnership is fading." ²⁰

Both Egyptian and Russian experts agree that President Putin's visit to Egypt fully meets the aspirations of both countries and is aimed at strengthening cooperation. At the same time, they emphasize that this process will require time, labor and capital investment, as well as a willingness to resist external political pressure. The memoranda of cooperation signed between the two countries indicate the commitment of Moscow and Cairo to work more closely together, but this work is very painstaking, requires close attention, effort and, of course, a purposeful pursuit of the final result.

¹ http://www.youm7.eom/story/2015/1/25/2040093#.VPtNdF 1SnJA

² From an exclusive interview of the President of Egypt with First Deputy Director General of TASS Mikhail Gusman. Cairo, 8.02.15/TASS/.

³ Ibid.

⁴ Putin and al-Sisi have developed good personal relations, and the visit to Egypt promises to be interesting-Ushakov. Moscow, 5.02.15 /TASS/.

⁵, Putin discussed the situation in the region and bilateral relations with Patriarch Theodore II of Alexandria and All Africa. Cairo, 10.02.15/TASS/.

⁶ http://www.ahram.org.eg/NewsQ/359278.aspx

⁷ Ibidem.

⁸ http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/News/10426/17/Time-for-turning-to-Russian-arms.aspx

⁹ Ibidem.

¹⁰ Egypt and Russia stand side by side in the fight against terrorism - al-Sisi. Cairo, 1002.15/TASS/.

¹¹ http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/News/10419/17/Rekindling-Russian-links.aspx

¹² http://www.ahram.org.eg/NewsQ/359278.aspx

¹³ The Russian-Egyptian working group will consider the creation of a free trade zone in the first half of the year-Ulyukayev. Cairo, 10.02.15/TASS/.

¹⁴ Russia's support in reviving tourism activity and promoting tourism is important for Egypt - President of Egypt. Cairo, 10.02.15 /TASS/.

¹⁵ http://www.ahram.org.eg/NewsQ/359282.aspx

¹⁶ http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/News/10419/17/Rekindling-Russi-an-links.aspx

¹⁷ Ibidem.

¹⁸ http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/News/10480/21/Will-Putin's-visit-affect-US-Egypt-relations-.aspx

¹⁹ http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/US-signals-it-wont-oppose-Russia-Egypt-deal-on-nuclear- reactors-390730

²⁰ http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/News/10419/17/Rekindling-Russian-links.aspx

Permanent link to this publication: