GENERAL ELECTIONS 2015

V. P. NEMCHENKO

Our sobkor in Ethiopia

Keywords: Ethiopia, elections, Revolutionary Democratic Front of the Ethiopian Peoples, Blue Party, Ethiopian Federal Forum for Democratic Unity

On May 24, 2015, general elections were held in Ethiopia for the lower house of Parliament, the Council of People's Representatives (SNP), and for all regional legislative assemblies except the metropolitan one. According to figures released by the National Electoral Council (INE), the ruling Ethiopian Peoples ' Revolutionary Democratic Front (RDFEN) won 500 of the 547 seats.

The allies supporting him secured 46 seats, including the Somali People's Democratic Party - 24, the Beshangul-Gumuz People's Democratic Party-9, the Afara National Democratic Party - 8, the Gambel Democratic People's Unity Movement - 3, and the Harari National League and the Agroba People's Democratic Organization - one seat each. It should be noted that the RDFEN received all 23 seats in the SNP from Addis Ababa. ¹ By-elections will be held for one seat.

According to the NIS, out of 33.2 million citizens who participated in the voting (more than 36.8 million voters are registered in the country), 27.34 million people voted for the RDFEN. 52 parties and 9 independent candidates took part in the elections. The highest activity was observed in the Tigray region (99%), the lowest-in Gambel (60%) ².

Of the foreign observers, 59 representatives from the African Union member States alone monitored the election process. According to the statement of the head of this mission, former President of Namibia H. According to Pohamba, they visited 356 polling stations in eight regions of the country, and their conclusion was that the voting took place in a peaceful and calm atmosphere without serious incidents or violations.³

The European Union and other Western organizations were denied accreditation to monitor the voting process due to the fact that, according to official explanations, they were not sufficiently objective in their assessments at the previous general elections (in 2005 and 2010). It should be noted that the EU stated that the last elections were organized, but they were unfair.⁴

According to information from the National Electoral Council, about 10 thousand observers, in addition to

representatives of opposition parties were appointed from local public organizations and supervised all stages of the election process.

ALIGNMENT OF FORCES

Political observers had no doubt that the ruling RDFEN, which previously had no serious rivals, would win a complete victory. An exception is the 2005 vote, which, according to opposition estimates, could have won up to 30% of the seats in Parliament, but according to official election results, they won only 12%. This caused them to actively disagree, which provoked clashes that resulted in human casualties. The subsequent counter-measures taken by the authorities, which sometimes went beyond the legal framework - blackmail, threats, disappearances, imprisonment on groundless charges, and forced emigration-led to a significant weakening and fragmentation of the opposition forces.

During the pre-election period, two of the most prominent opposition parties appeared on the country's political landscape, which were specially created to participate in the 2015 elections and, according to government agencies, are openly supported by the Western community. One of them took the name Blue (Amhar. - Semayawi). In general, it adheres to a liberal political orientation with right-wing accents. The second, the Ethiopian Federal Forum for Democratic Unity (Medrek), is based on ethno - national slogans and has its main social base in the south of the country.

Both parties, despite the fact that the social and political life of the country is quite densely filled with RDFEN, are trying to gain a foothold in this space. They often accuse the authorities of diminishing opportunities as a result of the crackdown on the private press and the widespread use of the terrorism law against political opponents. Both the Blue Party and Medrek achieved the highest electoral results in the capital - 22% and 15%, respectively.⁵

Another important and significant event in the election campaign is the political debates that took place in the media between the opposition parties. The latter have focused on the government's mistakes, and some of them have not even changed the content of their criticism, which they have used for the past ten or even twenty years. For example, many speculated on the long history of unresolved Ethiopian-Eritrean border disputes. In addition, excessive State control over the mass media, which leads to the prosecution of journalists, including those accused of aiding and abetting terrorist activities, was criticized. At the same time, observers note that the noticeable and active involvement of the media in the election campaign has brought a significant positive charge to the atmosphere of the country's domestic political life. It is thanks to their participation that possible formats for the further development of democracy have become visible.

The main opposition parties called for the real application of the federal principles of decentralization, the separation of the RDFEN party from state structures, the protection of freedoms through strengthening constitutionalism and the establishment of a national consensus to preserve political stability. At the same time, they have not failed to use the economic difficulties faced by the population to attract votes to their side, focusing on rising prices for basic goods and falling living standards.

According to observers, even in the pre-election period, the RDFEN was confident of winning the election. This is no coincidence, as it is the only strong party in the country in terms of financial and other opportunities. Its members are more than 6 million people. Thousands of cadres work in party centers in the capital and other cities and localities. They conduct propaganda campaigns among the population and work against the opposition. The latter is also unorganized, has much less human capacity, is often financially weak, and relies heavily on government subsidies.

"A KNOWN DEMON IS BETTER THAN AN UNKNOWN ANGEL"

This is what the Ethiopian proverb says, and so many people, especially in the provinces, voted for the party they know, i.e. the RDFEN, and not for the little-known and obscure opposition. Moreover, in the capital and other large cities, it was widely believed that many parties were created not to win elections, but to receive funding from the state and satisfy the interests of their leaders and members. In particular, a number of political structures were created before the elections by retired government officials, who attracted relatives, friends, former colleagues, etc. to their ranks.

In multiethnic African countries, elections are often a divisive factor in society, as parties are formed on an ethnic basis and compete for victory in elections after which the "winner takes all". Because of this political paradigm, few people are confident of a stable future, and it is difficult to plan for sustained political and economic development on a national scale. Ethiopia is still a special case in this regard. Thus, the RDFEN serves as an umbrella association that includes leading regional and ethnic political parties, so it is known to the population and is voted for by the majority in all regions of the federation.

The ruling party launched its pre-election campaign with a traditional political platform and used a whole range of methods.

winning theses that are replicated in newspapers and on television. For example, in recent years the country has managed to achieve consistently high economic growth, significant development of infrastructure and agriculture, reduce the level of poverty of the population, increase the number of jobs and implement numerous production projects. At the same time, there was a reduction in dependence on foreign aid for food, as well as the construction and distribution on preferential terms of thousands of apartments for the population.

Another area of political struggle for the RDFEN was to discredit the main opposition forces, in the first row of which, according to expert estimates, the Medrek party stands - both a serious rival and an ideological opponent at the federal level, since it managed to create its own organizational structures in all regions of the country.

Nevertheless, the Blue Party was considered by the ruling elite as the greatest threat, since in its propaganda rhetoric it questioned the basic foundations of the state system, in particular, the correctness of the principles of the federal structure of the country and the state status of national languages, as well as the land use system. Because of this, she became the main target of pressure and counter-propaganda for the authorities. In some cases, it was even presented as an organization that supports Islamist fundamentalists, thereby inciting both Orthodox and Muslim voters against it. In addition, attention was often focused on the absence of an ethnic component in its political program, to which the ordinary Ethiopian voter is accustomed to react particularly.

In election campaigns in Ethiopia, foreign policy is traditionally quite important. In this area, both the ruling party and the opposition have always found their trump cards. The latter, in the past campaign, continued to focus on the fact that the country lost access to the sea in 1993, after the separation of Eritrea, as well as on the ongoing military intervention (albeit in the format of an international peacekeeping mission of the African Union) in Somalia and on the inability of the Government to protect the rights of Ethiopian emigrants in other countries, in particular, in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. For its part, the RDFEN countered and neutralized such attacks, arguing, for example, that the correct and firm foreign policy of the government contributes to the preservation of peace and security in the region.

According to observers, the ruling party conducted the campaign without significant obstacles due to the fragmentation of the opposing forces. For example, the split between the Union for Democracy and Justice and the Organization of All-Ethiopian Unity significantly contributed to this. In this regard, the opposition has made accusations that the authorities are plotting and using illegal methods to weaken their influence in the country. At the same time, they have limited their accusations of electoral fraud and other violations to verbal statements without formal protests or legal actions.⁶

* * *

Despite the high intensity of the election campaign, the voting day was fairly organized and peaceful, with the exception of a number of clashes in several localities in the southern regions of the country. The vast majority of people went to the polls with the understanding that they were fulfilling their civic duty. Even in the first hours, it was obvious that the majority of voters almost all over the country, and especially in rural areas, make their choice in favor of the RDFEN. However, it should be noted that in the capital Addis Ababa, the city of Bahr Dar, as well as in some areas of the Amhara and Oromo regions, the ruling party won by a small margin. At the same time, the results were unexpected for some intellectuals and students, as they hoped that the opposition would be able to win or the authorities would give it at least a few seats in parliament.

However, both before and after the official announcement of the results, the internal political situation did not change. RDFEN is implementing the second phase of its multi - year program - "Growth and Transformation Plan". The opposition continues to justify the thesis that the current majority electoral system is limited, which does not give it a guarantee of access to power, since only those parties that have won, even if with an advantage of one vote, pass to the legislative body. Their argument boils down to the fact that even if a significant part of the population votes for them, it will still not affect their winning seats in parliament.

As one of the continent's leading States, Ethiopia, following the elections - another challenging milestone in its history-will spend the next five years addressing its most pressing socio-economic challenges facing millions of people: overcoming poverty and illiteracy, developing health care and improving infrastructure. Along with them, the country faces such equally significant challenges as maintaining State security and maintaining peaceful coexistence with its neighbors in the far from calm region of Africa.⁷

¹ The Daily Monitor. 23.06.2015.

² Ibidem.

³ The Ethiopian Herald. 27.05.2015.

⁴ The Daily Monitor. 30-31.06.2015.

⁵ Ibid., 23.06.2015.

⁶ The Ethiopian Herald. 03.06.2015; 07.07.2015.

⁷ For more information, see: Mezentsev S. V. Ethiopia: stagnation or stability? // Asia and Africa today. 2015, N 10. (Mezentsev S.V. 2015. Ethiopia: zastoi ili stabilnost? // Aziya i Afrika segodnya. N 10) (in Russian)

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